Indianapolis (10-6) at Houston (11-5)
When: Saturday, January 5th, 2019
Where: NRG Stadium,
Houston, Texas
Time: 4:35 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Houston -2.5/47.5
Neither the Indianapolis Colts or Houston Texans looked like playoff teams after the first month of the regular season, but both figured things out and come into this postseason as two of the hottest teams in the NFL. They will battle at Houston’s NRG Stadium on Saturday afternoon in the first AFC Wild Card game. Houston, who won the competitive AFC South, are just the sixth team in the Super Bowl era to make the playoffs after starting the season 0-3. The Texans failed to make the postseason last year, but did in 2016, winning a home Wild-Card game vs. Oakland but then losing in New England. Indianapolis became only the third team in the Super Bowl era to reach the postseason after starting the year 1-5. The Colts dominated the Tennessee Titans on the road Sunday night 33-17 to grab the AFC’s final spot behind another big game from Andrew Luck. It’s Indy’s first playoff berth since the 2014 season when the Colts made it to the AFC Championship, losing in New England in a game that spawned the term “Deflategate.” The Colts and Texans split their two meetings this season, each winning by a field goal on the opponents home turf, but have never met in the playoffs. Indianapolis is 5-0-1 ATS in its past six trips to Houston and are 5-2 ATS this year versus teams with winning records.
The Colts have reeled off nine wins over the last 10 games with the lone setback being an odd Week 13 puzzler at Jacksonville, 6-0. They have scored 21 points or more in every game but two this year behind Luck, who is likely to win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award after missing all 2017 due to shoulder injury. He finished fifth in passing yards (4,593) and second in TD passes (39) behind Patrick Mahomes’ 50. It’s the most ever by a QB after missing the entire previous season. Unlike most of Indianapolis’ successful teams with Luck – and before that, Peyton Manning – the Colts also have a good running game and defense. Second-year running back Marlon Mack had 908 yards and nine TDs rushing in just 12 games. Linebacker Darius Leonard led the NFL in tackles and likely wins NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year under first-year coach Frank Reich, who seems to be pushing all the right buttons.
Houston secured the AFC South with an easy 20-3 home win over last-place Jacksonville, assuring them of a home game in Wild Card Weekend. Quarterback Deshaun Watson threw for 234 yards and rushed for a touchdown vs. the Jags and is the first quarterback to throw for at least 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns and rush for 500 yards and five touchdowns in a single season in NFL history. DeAndre Hopkins continues to be one of – if not – the best receiver in the league and hauled in 12 catches for 147 yards. Hopkins finished with career highs this season in catches (115) and receiving yards (1,572). The Houston defense held the Jaguars to just 119 total yards behind J.J. Watt’s 1.5 sacks, giving him 16 on the season.
I’ve been saying this for a while now – I think the Colts are a better team than Houston and the Texans’ homefield advantage doesn’t really scare me. Indy’s offensive line has done a terrific job for Luck and the running game. The defense is also underrated. I like the Colts here.
Pick: Colts +1.5
Betting Trends:
- Colts are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Colts are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC South.
- Colts are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.
- Colts are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff road games.
- Colts are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Texans are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.
- Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC South.
- Texans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
- Texans are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Texans are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
- Texans are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 9-1 in Colts last 10 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 8-1 in Colts last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1 in Colts last 6 Wildcard games.
- Under is 5-1 in Colts last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 9-2 in Colts last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 4-1 in Colts last 5 vs. AFC.
- Under is 7-2 in Colts last 9 playoff road games.
- Under is 11-4 in Colts last 15 vs. AFC South.
- Under is 8-3 in Colts last 11 Saturday games.
- Under is 5-2 in Colts last 7 games overall.
- Over is 5-2 in Colts last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Colts last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-1 in Texans last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 8-2 in Texans last 10 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 4-1 in Texans last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 8-3 in Texans last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 13-5 in Texans last 18 vs. AFC.
- Under is 18-7 in Texans last 25 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Under is 5-2 in Texans last 7 home games.
- Under is 5-2 in Texans last 7 vs. AFC South.
- Colts are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Houston.
- Road team is 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
- Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
- Colts are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
- Over is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Houston.
- Underdog is 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
