Tampa Bay (2-2) at New Orleans (3-1)
When: Sunday, October 6th, 2019
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome,
New Orleans, Louisiana
Time: 1:00 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: New Orleans -6.5/47
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints are both coming off huge wins last Sunday and it will be interesting to see which team can keep the momentum going this week. Tampa set a franchise record in points with a 55-40 shootout win at the L.A. Rams, as quarterback Jameis Winston has put up some huge numbers the past two weeks. The Bucs have won both of their road contests, while dropping both games at home this season and come in as 3-point underdogs as of Friday afternoon. New Orleans lost future Hall-of-Famer Drew Brees in Week 2, but veteran Teddy Bridgewater has guided the Saints to two-straight victories, although he wasn’t all that impressive last week. The defense stepped up last Sunday night in a 12-10 win over previously unbeaten Dallas to help New Orleans maintain their one game lead in the NFC South. Bettors might be tempted to take the over 46 in this contest considering the Bucs surpassed that by themselves last week, but these teams have played to the under in 15 of their previous 21 head-to-head encounters. The Saints are also 9-2 to the under in their last 11 against the NFC. Tampa Bay scored 48 here in a Week 1 upset last season, but New Orleans returned the favor with a 28-14 win as 10-point favorites at Raymond James Stadium in December.
Winston has rebounded nicely since a three-interception performance in a Week 1 loss to San Francisco, throwing for 765 yards with seven touchdowns in the last two weeks and earning NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. Tampa has needed that from him because their rushing attack averages just 3.8 yards per carry and ranks in the middle of the league overall. Chris Godwin caught two touchdown passes last week while hauling in a career-high 12 receptions and 172 yards. The defense is led by Shaquil Barrett, who recorded his ninth sack, tying for the most by any player in the first four games and earning him Defensive Player of the Month honors for September. Tampa Bay will return home next week to face Carolina before going on their bye.
The Saints defense was a major in issue the first three weeks, allowing 27 or 28 points, but limited the Cowboys’ star running back Ezekiel Elliott to 35 yards on 18 carries in last week’s victory. The unit as a whole rank 26th in yards allowed (391.2) and 24th against the pass (279.2), but have held four of their past seven divisional opponents to 21 or fewer points at home. Bridgewater finished 23-of-30 for 193 yards versus Dallas and guided New Orleans on a nine-minute drive that led to the go-ahead field goal. Top target Mike Thomas had nine receptions for 95 yards to give him 34 catches on the season while running back Alvin Kamara is averaging 70 yards rushing for the 19th-best rushing attack in the league.
I can’t see Tampa Bay competing like they did last week after all of the traveling they’ve had to do. I still don’t trust Winston and I think this Saints defense will give him problems. The Saints offense should have no trouble carving up the Bucs defense and coming away with a win and cover.
Pick: Saints -3 (More Week 5 Free Picks)
Buccaneers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Buccaneers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Buccaneers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Buccaneers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Buccaneers are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Buccaneers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC South.
Buccaneers are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Buccaneers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Buccaneers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games in October.
Saints are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 games in October.
Saints are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games following a ATS win.
Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.
Saints are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 5.
Saints are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on fieldturf.
Saints are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Buccaneers last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Buccaneers last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Buccaneers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 14-5 in Buccaneers last 19 road games.
Over is 11-4 in Buccaneers last 15 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 21-8 in Buccaneers last 29 games in October.
Over is 5-2 in Buccaneers last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Buccaneers last 7 games in Week 5.
Over is 5-2 in Buccaneers last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 7-3 in Buccaneers last 10 games overall.
Over is 7-3 in Buccaneers last 10 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 18-8 in Buccaneers last 26 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Under is 5-0 in Saints last 5 games following a ATS win.
Over is 7-1 in Saints last 8 games in Week 5.
Under is 5-1 in Saints last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 9-2 in Saints last 11 vs. NFC.
Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games in October.
Under is 7-2 in Saints last 9 games following a straight up win.
Under is 9-4 in Saints last 13 games overall.
Under is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings.
