Indianapolis (2-2) at Kansas City (4-0)
When: Sunday, October 6th, 2019
Where: Arrowhead Stadium,
Kansas City, Missouri
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: Kansas City -8.5/55
We didn’t realize it then, but when the Indianapolis Colts lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in last year’s AFC Divisional Playoffs, it marked the final game of Andrew Luck’s career. The Week 5 matchup between these teams will take place on Sunday night with the Chiefs set as 11-point favorites in the only matchup of the week involving playoff teams from a year ago. Indianapolis is coming off a disappointing performance in last weekend’s 31-24 loss to the visiting Oakland Raiders that dropped the team’s record to 2-2. With the loss, the Colts failed to cover as 6-point home favorites, dropping them to 2-1-1 against the spread this season. A challenge for the Colts continues to be getting consistent results on the road, where they are 6-6 straight up since the start of the 2018 season, including last season’s playoff loss at Arrowhead Stadium. However, the Colts have been competitive on the road, going 4-1-1 ATS in their past six, and 7-4-1 in their last 12. The Chiefs return home after escaping with a 34-30 win in Detroit last weekend to maintain a perfect 4-0 record. Kansas City needed a pair of fourth-quarter touchdown runs from Darrel Williams to secure the victory, but wasn’t enough to cover as 7-point road favorites, and resulted in the Chiefs’ first ATS loss of the season. The Colts are 7-2 ATS in their past nine in Kansas City, while the total has gone under in four of the previous five meetings.
Quarterback Jacoby Brissett threw for 265 yards and three scores but his one interception was returned for a touchdown and the Colts rushed for only 81 yards while allowing 188 against the Raiders. Wide receivers T.Y. Hilton and Devin Funchess both sat out injured. Hilton is questionable, while Funchess looks like a go. Last year’s Defensive Rookie of the Year, linebacker Darius Leonard (concussion), is expected to miss another week, as will safety Malik Hooker (knee). Marlon Mack has been solid, rushing for 338 yards while averaging 4.7 per carry for the league’s No. 7 rushing attack. The Colts’ defense struggled to stop the run in its first two games but held its last two opponents under 100 yards rushing and rank 16th overall in yards allowed (363.0). The Colts will have their bye next week before hosting AFC South-rival Houston.
Patrick Mahomes had another rare game without a TD pass but threw for 315 yards and wasn’t picked off. He still hasn’t lost a September game in his two years and has helped guide the Chiefs to 25 or more points in an NFL-record 25 consecutive games. Top running back Damien Williams, offensive tackle Eric Fisher and Pro Bowl receiver Tyreek Hill all sat with injuries and Hill for sure will miss Sunday’s contest with the Colts. The pass defense is ranked 19th in the league – way up from last season – but the Chiefs are giving up 149.8 yards a game on the ground, good for 31st.
The Colts are banged-up on defense, but I believe the rushing attack can do some damage and keep it close. The Colts seem to play up to their competition, which is why they are 8-1 ATS in the last nine against teams with a winning record.
Pick: Colts +11 (More Week 5 Free Picks)
Colts are 8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Colts are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 5.
Colts are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Colts are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Colts are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Colts are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Colts are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games following a straight up loss.
Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.
Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Chiefs are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Chiefs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Chiefs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 5.
Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Over is 4-0 in Colts last 4 games in Week 5.
Under is 13-3 in Colts last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 11-3 in Colts last 14 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 7-2 in Colts last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 6-2 in Colts last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 6-2 in Colts last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 8-3 in Colts last 11 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 5-2 in Colts last 7 road games.
Under is 7-3 in Colts last 10 vs. AFC.
Over is 15-7 in Colts last 22 games on grass.
Over is 36-17 in Colts last 53 games in October.
Over is 6-0 in Chiefs last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games overall.
Over is 4-1-1 in Chiefs last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 6-2 in Chiefs last 8 games following a straight up win.
Under is 3-1-1 in Chiefs last 5 games in October.
Over is 7-3 in Chiefs last 10 games on grass.
Over is 7-3-1 in Chiefs last 11 vs. AFC.
Under is 50-24-1 in Chiefs last 75 home games.
Under is 35-17 in Chiefs last 52 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Colts are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Kansas City.
Colts are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 meetings.