Cleveland (5-7-1) at Denver (6-7)
When: Saturday, December 15th 2018
Where: Broncos Stadium,
Denver, Colorado
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: NFL Network
Opening Odds: Denver -4.5/42.5
The Denver Broncos are still in the AFC Wild Card hunt, but must win out and get some help from the four teams in front of them. Anything is possible with the schedule they have in front of them, but they better not overlook the suddenly confident Cleveland Browns. Denver saw their three-game winning streak come to and end last week with a 20-14 road loss in San Francisco as 3-point favorites. They once again will be favored by a field goal against a Cleveland team that has been getting better each week and seems to be having more fun since firing head coach Hue Jackson. Top overall draft pick Baker Mayfield has found success since Jackson’s firing, throwing 11 touchdowns in his last five games while improving his quarterback rating to 114.4 in that stretch following Sunday’s 26-20 win over Carolina as 1-point home underdogs. Mayfield will get a crack at an injury-plagued Denver secondary that is without Pro Bowler Chris Harris Jr. (fractured left fibula) and could be missing fellow cornerbacks Tramaine Brock (ribs) and Isaac Yiadom (separated right shoulder). The Browns, who are looking to end a 12-game losing streak versus Denver, is 8-5 ATS this season, while the Broncos are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
While Mayfield gets all the attention as the signal-caller, fellow rookie Nick Chubb is quietly having a very nice inaugural season. Chubb has recorded a rushing touchdown in five straight games and has eight overall (six rushing, two receiving) in seven games since taking over the starter’s role after Cleveland traded fellow running back Carlos Hyde to Jacksonville. Wideout Jarvis Landry, who scored twice (one receiving, one rushing) last week versus Carolina, had two touchdown catches among his seven receptions in his only career meeting at Denver in 2014 while playing with Miami. Defensive end Myles Garrett, who has 7.5 of his club-high 12.5 sacks in his past seven games, leads a defense that is ranked 31st overall in yards allowed (411.2).
Linebacker Bradley Chubb has a franchise rookie-record 12 sacks so far this season and will be going up against his second cousin Nick on the other side of the line. Fellow rookie Phillip Lindsay has been a nice surprise for Denver this year and recorded his sixth touchdown in four games last Sunday, although he was limited to just 30 yards on 14 carries to drop his NFL-best yards per carry average to 5.8. Lindsay will face Cleveland’s 28th-ranked rush defense needing just 33 yards to reach 1,000 on the season. Though the Broncos secondary is a bit suspect, Denver still gets after the quarterback led by Von Miller’s 13.5 sacks – 9.5 in the last eight games.
Both teams have issues and neither is deserving of a playoff spot this season. I really like the way Cleveland has come together this year and have been competitive in most games. Denver is no juggernaut and will have a hard time putting away this pesky Browns team.
Pick: Browns +2.5
Betting Trends:
- Browns are 17-37-1 ATS in their last 55 games overall.
- Browns are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 road games.
- Browns are 4-11 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Browns are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Browns are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Browns are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
- Browns are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 15.
- Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
- Broncos are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 Saturday games.
- Broncos are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
- Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
- Broncos are 4-9 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Broncos are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
- Broncos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in December.
- Broncos are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss.
- Broncos are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Broncos are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Broncos are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Broncos are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.
- Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Browns last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-1 in Browns last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 4-1 in Browns last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Browns last 5 vs. AFC.
- Over is 4-1 in Browns last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 38-11-2 in Browns last 51 games in December.
- Over is 8-3 in Browns last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Under is 18-8 in Browns last 26 games on grass.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Broncos last 6 games overall.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Broncos last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Broncos last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 home games.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Broncos last 5 games on grass.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Broncos last 5 vs. AFC.
- Under is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 games in December.
- Under is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games in Week 15.
- Under is 11-3 in Broncos last 14 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
- Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
