Denver (2-4) at Arizona (1-5)
When: Thursday, October 18th 2018
Where: State Farm Stadium,
Glendale, Arizona
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Arizona -2.5/40
This is definitely not the most attractive game on the Week 7 schedule, but its the Thursday night game and will obviously be highly bet. I’ll do my best to come up with an angle here as the Denver Broncos visit the Arizona Cardinals. The Broncos came into Week 6 as the only team in the league that had yet to cover the spread, but a late touchdown in a 23-20 loss to the unbeaten Rams last week, changed that. Quarterback Case Keenum threw an interception for the sixth-straight game, but head coach Vance Joseph says he’s committed to Denver’s new signal caller. The QB of the future on the other sidelines could have been Denver’s, but general manage John Elway passed on Josh Rosen and took defensive end Bradley Chubb instead. Rosen threw for 240 yards in a loss at Minnesota last week, but the kid has nobody around him in order to help him excel. Arizona has yet to surpass 300 yards of total offense in a game this season. Arizona is last in the league in yards, rushing yards, first downs, third-down conversion, and time of possession. Denver has lost just once in 10 all-time games vs. the Cardinals – including the St. Louis days – and it will be the Broncos’ first trip to the desert since 2010.
Denver’s once vaunted defense has some holes to fill after they allowed a 200-yard rusher for the second straight week and rank last in the league against the run with an average of 161.3 yards permitted. The Broncos’ pass rush did generate five sacks in last week’s loss, including three by rookie linebacker Bradley Chubb. Von Miller has 8.5 sacks and four forced fumbles in his last six games versus NFC opponents. Keenum threw scoring passes to wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas on Sunday but still has more interceptions (8) than TDs (7) through the first six games. Rookie running backs Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman were held to a combined 40 yards on 13 carries last week, but still rank 10th in the league at 124.2 yards a game.
Arizona’s offense is being run by offensive coordinator Mike McCoy, who was fired by the Broncos during the 2017 season following a six-game losing streak. He has his work cutout for him with Rosen still developing. Rosen has found a comfortable target in fellow rookie Christian Kirk, who caught six passes for 77 yards against the Vikings, but running back David Johnson has surpassed 55 yards rushing just once in six games despite scoring six touchdowns. The defense is not much better, ranking 31st against the run by surrendering an average of 151.2 yards.
Neither of these teams are going anywhere this year, but Arizona is really bad. Here are two factors that should get Denver the win and cover. They run the ball well despite last week’s effort against the Rams, and the Cardinals can’t stop the run. Also, the Broncos really get after the quarterback and the Arizona line will get crushed here and make life miserable for Rosen.
Pick: Broncos -1
Betting Trends:
- Broncos are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.
- Broncos are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Broncos are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
- Broncos are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 games on grass.
- Broncos are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Broncos are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Broncos are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Broncos are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games.
- Broncos are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss.
- Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
- Broncos are 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.
- Cardinals are 3-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Cardinals are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Cardinals are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
- Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
- Cardinals are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games.
- Cardinals are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games in October.
- Cardinals are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 7.
- Under is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 9-2 in Broncos last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games overall.
- Under is 9-3 in Broncos last 12 games in October.
- Under is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 games on grass.
- Under is 7-3 in Broncos last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Under is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games in Week 7.
- Under is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 games on grass.
- Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 19-7 in Cardinals last 26 home games.
- Under is 5-2 in Cardinals last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 7-3 in Cardinals last 10 games overall.
- Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.
- Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
- Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
