Milwaukee (41-39) at Cincinnati (33-44)
When: Thursday, June 29th
Where: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Milwaukee -105/10
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The cellar-dwelling Cincinnati Reds look for a three-game sweep of the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday night at Great American Ball Park. Cincinnati’s Scooter Gennett continues to torment the team that released him in Spring Training, blasting a two-run homer in Wednesday’s 4-3 victory to improve to 12-for-30 with three HRs, five RBIs and 10 runs scored during his six-game hitting streak. Adam Duvall went yard for the second straight day to highlight his third consecutive two-RBI performance heading into a matchup against Brewers starter Jimmy Nelson, against whom he is 6-for-12 in his career. Cincinnati 3B Eugenio Suarez is suffering through a 1-for-18 slump in his last seven games. The Reds have won three of four after a 1-13 stretch, while the Brewers have dropped four of five on its six-game road trip. Ryan Braun tied Lance Berkman for the most homers (23) by a visiting player at Great American Ball Park and he has two career blasts off Thursday’s starter, Homer Bailey. Milwaukee 3B Travis Shaw has homered in three straight games, going 4-for-9 with six RBIs and five runs scored, but Eric Thames is going in the opposite direction – 0-for-8 with five strikeouts in the series and 15-for-92 with 39 strikeouts in June.
Pitchers: Brewers – Jimmy Nelson (5-4, 3.50 ERA) | Reds – Homer Bailey (0-1, 43.20)
Jimmy Nelson suffered just his first loss in the month of June on Friday after allowing four runs in five innings of a 5-4 loss at Atlanta. He struck out eight men in that game and has 49 over his last six starts. Nelson improved to 4-3 in his career versus Cincinnati after allowing one run in seven innings in a 5-1 victory on April 13th.
Homer Bailey made his first start of the season on Saturday and just the tenth since the end of 2014 and it couldn’t have gone any worse. He allowed eight runs on six hits with three walks in just 1.2 innings at Washington. The Reds went on to lose that contest 18-3 Bailey will look to go deeper in his second start and is 5-8 with a 4.64 ERA in 22 career appearances against Milwaukee.
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This line is way off. I know the Brewers are struggling and the Reds have won the first two in the series, but this pitching matchup heavily favors Milwaukee. Look for the Brewers to tee-off against Bailey and cruise to victory.
Pick: Brewers -110
W/L TRENDS
| Milwaukee |
- Brewers are 14-2 in their last 16 during game 3 of a series.
- Brewers are 10-4 in their last 14 Thursday games.
- Brewers are 38-17 in their last 55 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.
- Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 road games.
- Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
- Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 games on grass.
- Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Brewers are 5-12 in Nelsons last 17 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Brewers are 2-5 in Nelsons last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 2-6 in Nelsons last 8 Thursday starts.
- Brewers are 2-7 in Nelsons last 9 starts during game 3 of a series.
|
| Cincinnati |
- Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 2-5 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Reds are 4-10 in their last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Reds are 4-14 in their last 18 overall.
- Reds are 3-12 in their last 15 games on grass.
- Reds are 8-3 in Baileys last 11 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Reds are 9-4 in Baileys last 13 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Reds are 2-5 in Baileys last 7 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance.
- Reds are 4-11 in Baileys last 15 starts.
- Reds are 4-11 in Baileys last 15 starts on grass.
- Reds are 2-6 in Baileys last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Reds are 2-7 in Baileys last 9 Thursday starts.
- Reds are 1-6 in Baileys last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Reds are 1-8 in Baileys last 9 starts vs. National League Central.
|
OU TRENDS
| Milwaukee |
- Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 games following a loss.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Brewers last 7 overall.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Brewers last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Brewers last 7 on grass.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Brewers last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Brewers last 5 road games.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Brewers last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Brewers last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Brewers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-2 in Brewers last 7 Thursday games.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Nelsons last 8 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-1 in Nelsons last 5 Thursday starts.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Nelsons last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Nelsons last 5 road starts.
- Over is 9-4-3 in Nelsons last 16 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 13-6 in Nelsons last 19 starts with 5 days of rest.
|
| Cincinnati |
- Under is 5-1 in Reds last 6 Thursday games.
- Over is 8-2 in Reds last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 7-2 in Reds last 9 games following a win.
- Over is 21-6 in Reds last 27 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-2 in Reds last 8 on grass.
- Over is 11-4 in Reds last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 20-8 in Reds last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 40-19-2 in Reds last 61 overall.
- Over is 33-16-2 in Reds last 51 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Baileys last 7 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance.
- Under is 7-1 in Baileys last 8 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-1 in Baileys last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 4-1 in Baileys last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-1 in Baileys last 5 starts overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Baileys last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
- Under is 6-2 in Baileys last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-2 in Baileys last 7 home starts.
- Under is 7-3 in Baileys last 10 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 11-5-2 in Baileys last 18 Thursday starts.
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HEAD TO HEAD
- Over is 6-1-1 in Nelsons last 8 starts vs. Reds.
- Over is 5-1 in Nelsons last 6 road starts vs. Reds.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
- Brewers are 4-1 in Nelsons last 5 starts vs. Reds.
- Brewers are 4-1 in Nelsons last 5 road starts vs. Reds.
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