Milwaukee (82-62) at Chicago Cubs (83-59)
When: Monday, September 10th 2018
Where: Wrigley Field,
Chicago, Illinois
Time: 8:05 ET | TV: FS Wisconsin,
NBCS Chicago
Opening Odds: Chicago -147
The Chicago Cubs return home after a long weekend to take on the team right behind them in the National League Central standings – the hard-charging Milwaukee Brewers – in what will be a key three-game series at Wrigley Field. Chicago spent most of the weekend in the Nation’s Capital waiting out rain delays and their finale on Sunday was completely washed away, forcing them to interrupt their six-game homestand with a trip back to the East Coast on Thursday. The Cubs dropped two of three to the Nationals, allowing 20 runs, and completing a 5-5 road trip. Meanwhile, Milwaukee completed a 5-1 homestand, taking two of three from the Cubs and sweeping three against San Francisco to climb to within two games of the division lead. Brewers OF Christian Yelich is making an MVP push, and has reached base in 25 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the NL and the second-longest of his career. Milwaukee reliever Corey Knebel has retired all 15 batters he has faced in five appearances since being recalled September 2nd. A pair of lefties will take the mound in the opener as Wade Miley faces Jon Lester.
Pitchers: Brewers – Wade Miley (3-2, 2.12 ERA) | Cubs – Jon Lester (15-5, 3.53)
Miley has been a huge boost to this Milwaukee rotation, allowing two earned runs or less in 11 of his 12 starts. Miley has surrendered two runs and eight hits with 11 strikeouts in 13.1 innings over his last two outings. He is 5-2 with a 4.13 ERA in eight career starts against the Cubs, including a win Tuesday in which he allowed one run and three hits across six frames.
It looked like Lester’s season was spiraling out of control, but he’s righted the ship with four solid outings since, allowing four runs over 23.2 innings during that stretch with 21 strikeouts and four walks. He shut down Philadelphia over six innings last time out to earn his 15th win. Lester is 4-2 with a 2.40 ERA in seven career starts against the Milwaukee.
I still don’t trust Lester right now. His last three starts came against terrible offenses in Detroit, NY Mets, and Phillies. Milwaukee is on a roll and Miley has been terrific. I like the Brewers in the opener here.
Pick: Brewers +124
BETTING TRENDS:
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 Monday games.
- Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.
- Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 games on grass.
- Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
- Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
- Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Brewers are 5-2 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Brewers are 3-7 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Brewers are 5-0 in Miley’s last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Brewers are 4-1 in Miley’s last 5 road starts.
- Brewers are 4-1 in Miley’s last 5 starts.
- Brewers are 4-1 in Miley’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Cubs are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Cubs are 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cubs are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. National League Central.
- Cubs are 38-16 in their last 54 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Cubs are 40-17 in their last 57 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Cubs are 42-20 in their last 62 home games.
- Cubs are 37-18 in their last 55 Monday games.
- Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Cubs are 7-0 in Lester’s last 7 starts with 7 or more days of rest.
- Cubs are 11-0 in Lester’s last 11 Monday starts.
- Cubs are 7-1 in Lester’s last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Cubs are 25-5 in Lester’s last 30 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Cubs are 17-6 in Lester’s last 23 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cubs are 37-14 in Lester’s last 51 home starts.
- Cubs are 7-3 in Lester’s last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cubs are 56-24 in Lester’s last 80 starts on grass.
- Cubs are 56-25 in Lester’s last 81 starts.
- Cubs are 36-17 in Lester’s last 53 starts vs. National League Central.
- Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 Monday games.
- Over is 7-2 in Brewers last 9 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 15-5 in Brewers last 20 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 6-2 in Brewers last 8 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 10-4 in Brewers last 14 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 20-9-1 in Brewers last 30 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 44-20 in Brewers last 64 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 35-17 in Brewers last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Miley’s last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Over is 4-0 in Miley’s last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-1 in Miley’s last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-2 in Miley’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 7-3 in Miley’s last 10 starts on grass.
- Over is 7-3 in Miley’s last 10 starts overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 Monday games.
- Under is 6-2 in Cubs last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 9-3 in Cubs last 12 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 8-3 in Cubs last 11 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Lester’s last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Over is 6-1 in Lester’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Over is 6-1 in Lester’s last 7 starts overall.
- Over is 6-1 in Lester’s last 7 home starts.
- Over is 4-1 in Lester’s last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
- Under is 6-2 in Lester’s last 8 Monday starts.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Lester’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 5-2 in Lester’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 7-3 in Lester’s last 10 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cubs are 5-0 in Lester’s last 5 starts vs. Brewers.
- Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago.
- Under is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings.
- Brewers are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
- Brewers are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Chicago.
