Atlanta (22-29) at Cincinnati (24-28)
When: Friday, June 2nd 2017
Where: Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, OH
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: FSN South, FSN Ohio
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Two teams trying to get back to .500 and stay in the playoff race will meet Friday night in the opener of a weekend series as the Cincinnati Reds host the Atlanta Braves at Great American Ballpark. It will mark the return to Cincinnati for second baseman Brandon Phillips, who was a three-time All-Star in his 11 seasons with the Reds before being traded to the Braves in February. He ranks seventh in games played (1,614) and ninth in hits (1,774) in the Reds history books. Phillips was 0-for-4 and his teammates managed only six hits in a 2-1 loss to the Los Angeles Angels on Wednesday, dropping the Braves to 2-4 on their nine-game road trip. Atlanta has won seven straight series openers, including four in a row on the road. Atlanta veteran Matt Kemp has homered in consecutive games and hit safely in eight of his last nine to raise his average to .345. After opening with three wins in their first four games on their latest road trip, the Reds dropped three straight in Toronto including Wednesday’s 5-4 setback to fall to 3-10 in their last 13 away games. Cincinnati is 8-4 over its previous 12 at Great American Ball Park and are just 3.5 games out of first place in the National League Central despite the 24-28 record. Slugger Joey Votto has been a monster with the bat at home this season, hitting .326 with a 1.151 OPS.
Pitchers: Braves – Mike Foltynewicz (3-5, 4.44 ERA) | Reds – Bronson Arroyo (3-4, 6.62)
Mike Foltynewicz was rocked in his latest outing, giving up five runs on seven hits – including two homers – in four innings of a loss at San Francisco on Saturday. After a solid opening month, Foltynewicz’s ERA has ballooned to 4.44 on the season after an ERA of 6.12 in May. In his previous five road starts, he had given up two or fewer earned runs. Foltynewicz is 1-0 with a 3.09 ERA in two career starts against Cincinnati, but Votto is 2-for-3 with three walks against him.
Bronson Arroyo has gone at least five innings in all five of his May starts but he got through six just once. He’s been giving up the long ball at an alarming rate – 12 on the season and seven over the last two games. The Philadelphia Phillies took him deep for three solo shots in five innings on Saturday, when Arroyo was given a no-decision in a 4-3 loss. Kemp (12-for-28, two homers) has done well against Arroyo, who has a 5.14 ERA in 18 career matchups (17 starts) with the Braves.
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Arroyo’s second stint with the Reds has gone horribly. He can’t keep the ball in the yard anymore and his bullpen won’t give him much help either. The trend of Atlanta winning seven straight series openers is hard to ignore.
Pick: Braves +100
W/L TRENDS
| Atlanta |
- Braves are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
- Braves are 5-1 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 Friday games.
- Braves are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Braves are 24-10 in their last 34 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Braves are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Braves are 2-6 in their last 8 vs. National League Central.
- Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 road games.
- Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
- Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 games on grass.
- Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Braves are 2-5 in Foltynewicz’s last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Braves are 2-7 in Foltynewicz’s last 9 starts vs. National League Central.
- Braves are 1-4 in Foltynewicz’s last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Braves are 1-5 in Foltynewicz’s last 6 road starts.
- Braves are 1-5 in Foltynewicz’s last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
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| Cincinnati |
- Reds are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Reds are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League East.
- Reds are 6-2 in their last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Reds are 5-2 in their last 7 games following an off day.
- Reds are 3-7 in their last 10 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Reds are 3-8 in their last 11 Friday games.
- Reds are 17-47 in their last 64 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
- Reds are 2-8 in their last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Reds are 1-6 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Reds are 12-3 in Arroyo’s last 15 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Reds are 16-5 in Arroyo’s last 21 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Reds are 5-2 in Arroyo’s last 7 Friday starts.
- Reds are 36-15 in Arroyo’s last 51 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Reds are 2-7 in Arroyo’s last 9 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Reds are 1-6 in Arroyo’s last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Reds are 0-7 in Arroyo’s last 7 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
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OU TRENDS
| Atlanta |
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 games following an off day.
- Over is 5-1 in Braves last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 Friday games.
- Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 19-6-2 in Braves last 27 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Braves last 5 road games.
- Over is 6-2-1 in Braves last 9 on grass.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Braves last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 11-4-1 in Braves last 16 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 36-14-2 in Braves last 52 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 35-14-2 in Braves last 51 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Braves last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 37-15-1 in Braves last 53 games following a loss.
- Over is 29-12-3 in Braves last 44 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 7-3-1 in Braves last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 63-31-4 in Braves last 98 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Foltynewiczs last 4 Friday starts.
- Over is 4-0 in Foltynewicz’s last 4 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 8-1 in Foltynewicz’s last 9 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Foltynewicz’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-1 in Foltynewicz’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-1 in Foltynewicz’s last 5 starts overall.
- Over is 7-2 in Foltynewicz’s last 9 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 6-2 in Foltynewicz’s last 8 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 8-3 in Foltynewicz’s last 11 road starts.
- Over is 5-2 in Foltynewicz’s last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-2 in Foltynewicz’s last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
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| Cincinnati |
- Over is 6-1-2 in Reds last 9 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Over is 4-1 in Reds last 5 home games.
- Over is 18-6-2 in Reds last 26 games following a loss.
- Over is 8-3 in Reds last 11 Friday games.
- Over is 23-9-2 in Reds last 34 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Reds last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 9-4 in Reds last 13 on grass.
- Over is 9-4 in Reds last 13 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Arroyo’s last 4 Friday starts.
- Over is 7-0 in Arroyo’s last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Arroyo’s last 4 home starts.
- Over is 6-0 in Arroyo’s last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Arroyo’s last 8 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 9-3 in Arroyo’s last 12 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 15-5-1 in Arroyo’s last 21 starts on grass.
- Over is 9-3-1 in Arroyo’s last 13 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 15-5-1 in Arroyo’s last 21 starts overall.
- Under is 17-8-2 in Arroyo’s last 27 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
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HEAD TO HEAD
- Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Cincinnati.
- Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
- Braves are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Cincinnati.
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