Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs Preview and Pick

The Cincinnati Bengals, coming off their first winning season in 15 years, open the 2006 NFL season with a visit to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs and their new head coach, Herman Edwards, Sunday afternoon.

Cincinnati QB Carson Palmer is attempting to come back ahead of schedule from that horrendous knee injury suffered in last season’s home playoff loss to Pittsburgh, and apparently he’s ready to go. Palmer compiled a 68% completion rate last season and a 32/12 TD/INT ratio. And in the Bengals’ last two pre-season games leading up to Sunday, Palmer lit up the Packers and the Colts for a 13/20/173/4 TD performance.

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Cincinnati scored 131 points in its four exhibition games this summer.

Regardless of the QB situation, the big question mark surrounding Cincy is the defense, which allowed 30 points per game during the last half of last season. Cincinnati is hoping the signings of DT Sam Adams and S Dexter Jackson provide an upgrade, but the Bengals will be without MLB Odell Thurman, last season’s leading tackler, for the first four games of the season after he was found in violation of the league’s substance abuse policy.

Kansas City still has a potent offense piloted by QB Trent Green and powered by RB Larry Johnson. But both of last season’s starting offensive tackles, Willie Roaf and John Welbourn, retired during the off-season, and fullback Tony Richardson took a free-agent flight to Minnesota.

For what it’s worth, the Chiefs scored a grand total of 40 points in their four pre-season games this summer.

KC beat the Bengals 37-3 at Arrowhead Stadium in the regular-season finale last season, but the two teams came into that game with vastly different agendas. The Chiefs needed a win and a Pittsburgh loss to get into the playoffs; they got half of that, and watched the post-season on TV. On the other side of the field that day, Cincinnati had already clinched a playoff spot and a home game, so Jon Kitna replaced Carson at quarterback in the second quarter. Johnson had one of his monster games that day, running through that porous Bengals defense for 201 yards and three touchdowns.

KC went 7-1 straight up at home last year, and 6-1-1 vs. the spread, while Cincinnati went a surprising 6-2 SU on the road and 6-1-1 ATS.

The Chiefs opened up as 4 ½-point chalk for Sunday’s opener, but that number has been bet down to less than a field goal. And the total on this game opened up at around 51, but has dropped almost five points.

The Ultimatecapper Pick: What a tasty morsel we have here! Listen up! ANYTIME the public is hammering the crap out of an underdog you better be licking your chops because IT’S VALUE TIME! KC as a 2 point fav here at home with the public hammering the Bengals to the tune of 74% is about as solid of a play as we’re going to see this year! Does this mean it’s a lock? Heck no, nothing is for sure. One thing can be said for sure.. This game has mega-value and has about a 75% chance of covering! Take the Chiefs and spit in your bookie’s face this week!