Houston (0-0) at Boston (0-0)
When: Saturday, October 13th 2018
Where: Fenway Park,
Boston, Massachusetts
Time: 8:05 ET | TV: TBS
Opening Odds: Boston -120/7.5
The Boston Red Sox earned homefield advantage throughout the month of October by setting a franchise record with 108 wins in 2018, and will get Game 1 of the ALCS at Fenway Park against the defending World Series Champion Houston Astros on Saturday night. First-year manager Alex Cora helped guide the Sox to a terrific regular season, and was a bench coach for Houston’s run last season. Boston took care of rival the New York Yankees in the ALDS in four games to set up a rematch of last year’s ALDS in which the Astros won. Houston easily swept the Cleveland Indians in their ALDS and had the best run differential in the league during the regular season. Astros OF George Springer has gone yard seven times in his last nine postseason games, including three in the ALDS against Cleveland. The aces of each staff will take the mound for Game 1 as Houston’s Justin Verlander opposes lefty Chris Sale of Boston. The Red Sox will make a decision on Saturday whether to keep first baseman Mitch Moreland (hamstring) on the roster or add a pitcher. Houston took the season series 4-3 including two of three at Fenway September 7-9.
Pitchers: Astros – Justin Verlander (1-0, 3.38 ERA) | Red Sox – Chris Sale (1-0, 2.84)
Verlander was sharp in Game 1 of the ALDS against Cleveland, no-hitting the Indians through five innings before allowing two runs, but came away victorious. Verlander earned a pair of wins against Boston during last year’s ALDS, including a victory out of the bullpen in the clinching Game 4 at Fenway Park.
Sale had not worked much in the month of September after a stint on the disabled list, but struck out eight over 5.1 innings to earn a win in Game 1 of the ALDS against New York and tossed a scoreless inning of relief during the clinching Game 4. Sale was roughed up last year against the Astros in the ALDS, allowing a total of nine runs on 13 hits – four homers – in 9.2 innings.
The Astros love hitting against lefties and proved their not intimidated by Sale in last year’s postseason run. Verlander seems to get better and better the deeper we get into October. Houston’s lineup is scary-good right now and should be able to come away with a Game 1 victory.
Pick: Astros +100
BETTING TRENDS:
- Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 playoff games.
- Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 games following an off day.
- Astros are 8-0 in their last 8 Saturday games.
- Astros are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Astros are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Astros are 11-3 in their last 14 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Astros are 39-13 in their last 52 road games.
- Astros are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. American League East.
- Astros are 47-21 in their last 68 games following a win.
- Astros are 66-30 in their last 96 games on grass.
- Astros are 39-18 in their last 57 overall.
- Astros are 67-32 in their last 99 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Astros are 46-22 in their last 68 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Astros are 2-8 in their last 10 League Championship road games.
- Astros are 6-0 in Verlander’s last 6 starts.
- Astros are 6-0 in Verlander’s last 6 starts on grass.
- Astros are 4-0 in Verlander’s last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Astros are 17-3 in Verlander’s last 20 road starts.
- Astros are 5-1 in Verlander’s last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Astros are 4-1 in Verlander’s last 5 Saturday starts.
- Astros are 5-2 in Verlander’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Astros are 1-4 in Verlander’s last 5 starts vs. American League East.
- Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. American League West.
- Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 League Championship games.
- Red Sox are 45-18 in their last 63 home games.
- Red Sox are 58-24 in their last 82 games on grass.
- Red Sox are 38-16 in their last 54 games following a win.
- Red Sox are 42-18 in their last 60 games following an off day.
- Red Sox are 88-38 in their last 126 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Red Sox are 44-20 in their last 64 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Red Sox are 60-28 in their last 88 overall.
- Red Sox are 44-21 in their last 65 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 Saturday games.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in Sale’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Sale’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 11-1 in Sale’s last 12 starts on grass.
- Red Sox are 6-1 in Sale’s last 7 home starts.
- Red Sox are 4-1 in Sale’s last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Red Sox are 38-18 in Sale’s last 56 starts.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Astros last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Astros last 4 during game 5 of a series.
- Under is 7-1 in Astros last 8 road games.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Astros last 9 games following a win.
- Over is 5-1 in Astros last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 8-2-1 in Astros last 11 overall.
- Under is 12-3-1 in Astros last 16 vs. American League East.
- Over is 5-2 in Astros last 7 games following an off day.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Astros last 8 on grass.
- Over is 5-2 in Astros last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 11-5 in Astros last 16 League Championship games.
- Under is 6-1 in Verlander’s last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Verlander’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Red Sox last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 8-1-1 in Red Sox last 10 League Championship home games.
- Over is 6-1-2 in Red Sox last 9 home games.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Red Sox last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-1-2 in Red Sox last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 8-2-1 in Red Sox last 11 Saturday games.
- Over is 11-3-1 in Red Sox last 15 on grass.
- Over is 11-3-1 in Red Sox last 15 overall.
- Over is 7-2 in Red Sox last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Red Sox last 5 during game 5 of a series.
- Over is 5-2 in Red Sox last 7 games following a win.
- Over is 15-7-4 in Red Sox last 26 playoff home games.
- Over is 35-17-2 in Red Sox last 54 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 33-16-2 in Red Sox last 51 games following an off day.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Sale’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Sale’s last 5 starts overall.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Sale’s last 4 home starts.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Sale’s last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Sale’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
