Army (8-3) vs Navy (6-5)
When: Saturday, December 9th 2017
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Time: 3:00 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: Navy -3.5/54
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It may not be the best rivalry in sports, but it certainly is the most patriotic, as the Army Black Knights and Navy Midshipmen meet for the 118th time on Saturday in Philadelphia. Army can claim its first Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy since 1996 as this is the first time since 2012 that the trophy trophy is on the line for both teams after Navy defeated Air Force 48-45 on October 7th and Army shut out the Falcons 21-0 on November 4th while not attempting a pass. The Black Knights, who have thrown the ball just 60 times this season, are also trying for their second straight victory in a series which they trail 60-50-7 after the Midshipmen (99 pass attempts) reeled-off 14 straight wins from 2002-15. Army (368.1 rushing yards per game) and Navy (347.5) boast the top ground attacks in the nation with senior quarterback Ahmad Bradshaw and junior quarterback Zach Abey running the respective attacks. Army prevailed 21-17 last season in Baltimore on Bradshaw’s 9-yard touchdown run with 6:42 remaining to snap the long losing streak. The Black Knights will play San Diego State in the Armed Forces Bowl on December 23rd in Fort Worth, Texas, while the Midshipmen host Virginia in the Military Bowl on December 28th in Annapolis, MD.
Bradshaw set the school record for rushing yards in a season with 1,472 after recording 244 in a 52-49 loss at North Texas on November 18th, and can pass Navy’s Napoleon McCallum (1,583 in 1983) for the most among service academy teams. Bradshaw is not the only rushing option this team has. Junior running back Darnell Woolfork (668 yards) has 11 rushing touchdowns as the Black Knights’ 43 TDs on the ground are three shy of the school record set last season, surpassing the 45 by the 1946 team. Sophomore running back Kell Walker (553 yards, six TDs) and junior running back Andy Davidson (517 yards, four TDs) contribute as well.
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Abey (1,322 yards, 14 touchdowns), who sustained a concussion and a shoulder injury against Temple on November 2nd, missed the SMU game on November 11th, and was held to 180 rushing yards and one touchdown over his last three games. Sophomore running back Malcolm Perry (818 yards, eight TDs) filled in at quarterback and rushed for 282 yards in the 43-40 victory over the Mustangs before missing the 24-17 loss at Notre Dame on November 18th with an ankle injury. The Midshipmen may not have a passing game, but they do surprise teams from time to time and wide receiver Tyler Carmona is usually the one involved. Carmona averages a blistering 27.2 yards per reception while Perry averages 25.1 yards on 12 catches.
Navy does play a tougher schedule, which is why the records look a little deceiving when you see the spread. The teams couldn’t be more evenly matched this season, but Army is tired of getting their butts kicked every year, and maybe last year’s victory lit a spark. I’ll take the points.
Pick: Army +3
TRENDS:
- Black Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Black Knights are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in December.
- Black Knights are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Black Knights are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss.
- Black Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Midshipmen are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
- Midshipmen are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
- Midshipmen are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Midshipmen are 3-1-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Midshipmen are 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 8-1 in Black Knights last 9 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 11-2 in Black Knights last 13 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Black Knights last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 15-3 in Black Knights last 18 neutral site games.
- Under is 13-3 in Black Knights last 16 games in December.
- Under is 4-1 in Black Knights last 5 vs. AAC.
- Under is 25-9-1 in Black Knights last 35 games on grass.
- Over is 5-2 in Black Knights last 7 games overall.
- Over is 5-2 in Black Knights last 7 non-conference games.
- Over is 5-2 in Black Knights last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Black Knights last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Black Knights last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 9-4 in Black Knights last 13 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 34-16-1 in Black Knights last 51 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Midshipmen last 4 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Midshipmen last 4 vs. INDEP.
- Under is 13-3 in Midshipmen last 16 games in December.
- Under is 8-2 in Midshipmen last 10 neutral site games.
- Under is 4-1 in Midshipmen last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 8-2 in Midshipmen last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Midshipmen last 7 non-conference games.
- Under is 16-7 in Midshipmen last 23 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 36-17 in Midshipmen last 53 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Navy.
- Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Black Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
- Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
- Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.
- Black Knights are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Navy.
