Originally posted on 7/28/25
The AFC South is a division full of young quarterback play and it’s led by Houston’s C.J. Stroud. The Texans are seeking their third straight division title and are the favorites. However, even the Titans, who are picked to finish last, are just +900 and they will have a rookie QB calling the shots. Jacksonville and Indianapolis will try and unseat the Texans.
AFC South Standings [2024]
| AFC | SOUTH | W | L | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Texans | 10 | 7 | 0 |
 | Colts | 8 | 9 | 0 |
 | Jaguars | 4 | 13 | 0 |
 | Titans | 3 | 14 | 0 |
HOUSTON TEXANS (-105)
The Texans are very close to getting over the hump and advancing further in the playoffs. They are 0-6 all-time in the Divisional Round after losing to the Chiefs last season. Stroud’s production went down in his second season, but Houston revamped the offensive line over the offseason and added some more weapons at wide receiver that should get Stroud back on track. The Texans were 5-1 in their division last season and are deserving of being the favorites.
Odds to Win AFC South (as of 7/28/25):
Houston Texans -105
Jacksonville Jaguars +275
Indianapolis +325
Tennessee Titans +900
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+275)
With a new coach and GM, the Jaguars are looking to make another leap and overtake the Texans. Travis Hunter was drafted to give Trevor Lawrence a legitimate weapon at wide receiver. The new offensive scheme can only help Lawrence’s progression, which has been very slow. A Week 3 home date against Houston will determine if Jacksonville is ready to make the leap.
Week 1 NFL Lines, Free Picks and Futures
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+325)
The worst QB situation in the division lies in Indianapolis. Anthony Richardson has played only 15 of a possible 34 games and the results have been discouraging. The Colts brought in Daniel Jones to compete with Richardson, and Jones may end up getting the job. Adding tight end Tyler Warren with the 14th pick will help. Indy also spent money in free agency to bolster the secondary. The Colts will play four of their first six games at home and won’t see Houston until Nov. 30.
Season Win Totals (as of 7/28/25):
Houston Texans 9.5 o120
Jacksonville Jaguars 7.5 o150
Indianapolis Colts 7.5o115
Tennessee Titans 5.5 o160
TENNESSEE TITANS (+900)
With a new GM and quarterback, the Titans are looking to improve on their awful 3-14 mark from a year ago. Cam Ward is the man now and Tennessee helped him by signing receivers Tyler Lockett and Van Jefferson, and linemen Dan Moore and Kevin Zeitler. Still, the Titans are probably going to finish last.
Jay’s Season Win Total Best Bet: Houston won 10 games last season and I can easily see them at least matching it. They were 5-1 in the division. If they can get to six wins by Thanksgiving, the back-end of the schedule is doable.
Texans OVER 9.5 -120
Jay’s Pick to Win Division: I’ll go all-in on the Texans this season. I like Stroud and he will have more weapons and be better protected this year. Again, this is a weak division and I believe Houston is the best in it.
Texans -105
To see more odds and props for the AFC North, click here.
AFC EAST PREVIEW
AFC NORTH PREVIEW
AFC WEST PREVIEW
NFC EAST PREVIEW
NFC NORTH PREVIEW
NFC SOUTH PREVIEW
NFC WEST PREVIEW
More Previews Coming Soon!
