Originally posted on 7/21/25
The Buffalo Bills domination of the AFC East continued last season and they show no signs of slowing down. They are easily the biggest division favorite going into the 2025 season at -375. Second place and a potential wild card berth should come down to the Dolphins and the improving Patriots, while the Jets are most likely going to bring up the rear.
AFC East Standings [2024]
| AFC | EAST | W | L | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Bills | 13 | 4 | 0 |
 | Dolphins | 8 | 9 | 0 |
 | Jets | 5 | 12 | 0 |
 | Patriots | 4 | 13 | 0 |
BUFFALO BILLS (-375)
This Bills team is so close to winning a Super Bowl and if weren’t for the Kansas City Chiefs, probably would have at least one by now. Josh Allen once again will lead and offense that led the league with 525 points and another 87 in three playoff games.
The thing that will get Buffalo over the hump finally will be defense. The Bills bulked up the defensive line with Joey Bosa and Larry Ogunjobi, while adding veterans at the other positions. They then used their first five draft picks on defense, including cornerback Maxwell Hairston.
Odds to Win AFC East (as of 7/21/25):
Buffalo Bills -375
New England Patriots +600
Miami Dolphins +700
New York Jets +2000
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (+600)
New England is poised to make the biggest improvement in this division and it starts up top. Mike Vrabel should have been the choice to replace Bill Belichick in the first place, but Robert Kraft made the mistake by hiring Jerod Mayo. Drake Maye appears to be the QB of the future and the Pats went out and signed to starting offensive linemen to protect him.
New England also grabbed Stefon Diggs in free agency to give Maye his first real weapon and they used their top four draft picks on offense, including left tackle Will Campbell. The schedule is doable for a potential winning season.
Week 1 NFL Lines, Free Picks and Futures
MIAMI DOLPHINS (+700)
While the Patriots are on the rise, it appears the Dolphins are a team on the decline. General manage Chris Grier and head coach Mike McDaniel are on the hot seat. The offense took a major step back and the concern over Tua Tagovailoa’s health is real. Miami stocked up on backup quarterbacks and drafted Quinn Ewers out of Texas.
Wide receivers Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill had their worst seasons in 2024. The defense didn’t get much better and the secondary has been overhauled. A rebuild in Miami could be coming sooner than later.
Season Win Totals (as of 7/21/25):
Buffalo Bills 11.5 o210
New York Jets 5.5 o165
Miami Dolphins 8.5 u180
New England Patriots 8.5 o120
NEW YORK JETS (+2000)
The longest shot in the division will be the hapless Jets once again. After two years of the Aaron Rodgers debacle, the Jets will now turn to Justin Fields, who will be playing with his third team since being drafted No. 11 overall in 2021.
Former star corner Aaron Glenn takes over at head coach and should help improve the defense right away. The defense can be as good as they want, but that won’t help the Jets from missing the playoffs for the 15th consecutive season.
Jay’s Season Win Total Best Bet: I really think the Dolphins are in trouble. I don’t like McDonald and the offense is not very good. I can easily see them starting out 3-7 and having to go 6-1 down the stretch to go over their total. No way.
Dolphins UNDER 8.5 -180
Jay’s Pick to Win Division: I don’t see how the Bills lose this division as long as Josh Allen stays upright. It’s a ton of juice to lay for a season-long bet, but this team could have the division wrapped up by Thanksgiving. They are that good and are only getting better, especially on defense.
Bills -375
To see more odds and props for the AFC East, click here.
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