NY Yankees (48-45) at Seattle (48-48)
When: Thursday, July 20th 2017
Where: Safeco Field, Seattle, WA
Time: 10:10 ET | TV: MLB Network
Opening Odds: New York -113/8.5
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The Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees begin an important four-game series on Thursday night at Safeco Field in Seattle. The Yankees led the AL East for most of the first half of the season before a big slid into the All-Star Break, while the Mariners have fought through injuries to their starting staff and have climbed back to the .500 mark. New York currently holds the second AL Wild Card spot with the hard-charging Mariners only a game and a half behind. The Mariners completed a 5-1 road trip with a 4-1 victory over the Houston Astros on Wednesday and now have their next 10 games at home. Right-hander Felix Hernandez is settling into a groove after a two-month stint on the disabled list due to shoulder issues and has won four of his past five decisions against the Yankees. Mariners 2B Robinson Cano, who is just 1-for-18 over the past five games, is batting .324 with three homers and 12 RBIs in 18 games against his former team from New York. The Yankees lost to Minnesota 6-1 on Wednesday, one day after acquiring third baseman Todd Frazier (0-for-1, hit by pitch) and relievers David Robertson (didn’t pitch) and Tommy Kahnle (one scoreless inning) from the Chicago White Sox for reliever Tyler Clippard and three minor leaguers. New York optioned LHP Chasen Shreve to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and designated 1B Ji-Man Choi and INF Rob Refsnyder for assignment to open up roster spots for Frazier, Robertson and Kahnle.
Pitchers: Yankees – Luis Severino (5-4, 3.40 ERA) | Mariners – Felix Hernandez (5-3, 4.20)
Luis Severino will look to get back into the win column for the first time in six starts. He hasn’t been getting much run support. In those six starts he has two losses and four no-decisions after allowing just one run on two other occasions. Severino has struck out 10 or more batters in two of his last four outings and tied for fifth in the AL with 130 strikeouts. He allowed four runs and eight hits over 5.2 innings in a loss to Seattle in April of 2016.
King Felix is 10-6 with a 3.13 ERA in 20 career starts against the Yankees but is just 3-4 at home compared to being 7-2 when pitching in New York. He has won his past two starts and is 3-1 with a 3.72 ERA in five starts since returning from the disabled list. Hernandez has given up two home runs to Frazier (4-for-8) and 12 hits in 33 at-bats to Gardner.
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The Mariners are right back in the playoff race and Hernandez seems to be 100% healthy, which means trouble for a struggling Yankees lineup. New York is just 1-4 in Severino’s last five road starts and Seattle should be able to get enough runs for Felix. I’ll take the home team.
Pick: Mariners +107
W/L TRENDS
| NY Yankees |
- Yankees are 10-21 in their last 31 overall.
- Yankees are 10-21 in their last 31 games on grass.
- Yankees are 6-13 in their last 19 road games.
- Yankees are 2-5 in their last 7 Thursday games.
- Yankees are 6-15 in their last 21 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Yankees are 3-8 in their last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Yankees are 3-10 in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Yankees are 3-12 in their last 15 vs. American League West.
- Yankees are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Yankees are 3-13 in their last 16 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Yankees are 3-13 in their last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Yankees are 1-4 in Severino’s last 5 road starts.
- Yankees are 1-6 in Severino’s last 7 starts vs. American League West.
- Yankees are 1-6 in Severino’s last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Yankees are 1-9 in Severino’s last 10 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Yankees are 0-4 in Severino’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Yankees are 0-5 in Severino’s last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
|
| Seattle |
- Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
- Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Mariners are 10-3 in their last 13 during game 1 of a series.
- Mariners are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. American League East.
- Mariners are 2-7 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Mariners are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Mariners are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mariners are 1-4 in their last 5 Thursday games.
- Mariners are 2-9 in their last 11 home games.
- Mariners are 1-7 in their last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Mariners are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mariners are 4-1 in Hernandez’s last 5 starts vs. American League East.
- Mariners are 11-3 in Hernandez’s last 14 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mariners are 10-4 in Hernandez’s last 14 home starts.
- Mariners are 23-10 in Hernandez’s last 33 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Mariners are 21-10 in Hernandez’s last 31 starts during game 1 of a series.
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OU TRENDS
| NY Yankees |
- Under is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 vs. American League West.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Yankees last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 Thursday games.
- Over is 8-2 in Yankees last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Severino’s last 7 starts vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-2 in Severino’s last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 5-2 in Severino’s last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
|
| Seattle |
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 vs. American League East.
- Under is 10-1 in Mariners last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 5-1 in Mariners last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Mariners last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 13-5-1 in Mariners last 19 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-2 in Mariners last 7 overall.
- Under is 5-2 in Mariners last 7 on grass.
- Over is 7-3-2 in Mariners last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 11-5-1 in Mariners last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-0 in Hernandez’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Hernandez’s last 5 home starts.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Hernandez’s last 8 Thursday starts.
- Under is 7-3-1 in Hernandez’s last 11 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 15-7-3 in Hernandez’s last 25 starts with 4 days of rest.
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HEAD TO HEAD
- Under is 14-4 in the last 18 meetings in Seattle.
- Under is 23-7-3 in the last 33 meetings.
- Yankees are 11-4 in the last 15 meetings.
- Yankees are 19-7 in the last 26 meetings in Seattle.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Hernandez’s last 8 starts vs. Yankees.
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