Wisconsin (2-1) at Iowa (3-0)
When: Saturday, September 22nd 2018
Where: Kinnick Stadium,
Iowa City, Iowa
Time: 8:30 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Wisconsin -6/44
The Big Ten West may very well come down to who wins this September showdown in Kinnick Stadium, as the Iowa Hawkeyes host the Wisconsin Badgers on Saturday night’s FOX Game of the Week. Anytime Iowa hosts a night game against a ranked team, something special seems to happen. Two years ago, the Hawkeyes shocked Michigan 14-13 as 21-point underdogs, then last year, Penn State needed a touchdown pass on the last play of the game to beat them, but Iowa routed Ohio State 55-24 two months later to make themselves bowl-eligible. The Hawkeyes come in with some momentum, winning each of their first three non-conference games and allowing an FBS fourth-best eight points a game. The level of competition revs up Saturday, however, as the first three opponents were Group of 5 schools, and all at home. Wisconsin needs to rebound from a shocking home loss to BYU last week, as a loss to Iowa on Saturday would surely eliminate them from a possible CFB Playoff spot. The Hawkeyes, who haven’t started 4-0 since 2015, are ranked second nationally in total defense, giving up 209 yards per game, and hope to slow down Wisconsin’s potent rushing attack while treating their home fans to their first win in the series at Kinnick Stadium since a 38-16 triumph in 2008. The Badgers have won five of the last six meetings in the Battle for the Heartland Trophy, and have covered the spread in the last two.
Quarterback Alex Hornibrook threw for 190 yards against BYU to move past Jim Sorgi for 8th place on the Badgers’ all-time passing yards list with 4,501, but the defense allowed BYU to rush for 191 yards on just 28 carries. Running back Jonathan Taylor racked up 117 rushing yards against the Cougars and has eclipsed the 100-yard mark in all three games. Rafael Gaglianone’s streak of consecutive field goals came to an end at 13 in a row – one short of the program record held by Vitaly Pisetsky in 1999 – when he missed a potential game-tying kick with 41 seconds left in the fourth quarter. The defense is injury-plagued, which could be a factor in Saturday’s contest. Linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel (leg) is likely out, while fellow linebacker Mike Maskalunas (lower body) and safety Reggie Pearson (leg) have been upgraded to questionable.
Nate Stanley was on fire last Saturday against Northern Iowa, completing 23-of-28 passes for 309 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the win and became the 13th quarterback in program history to reach 3,000 yards for his career. Wideout Nick Easley caught 10 of those passes for 103 yards and a score, while running back Mehki Sargent accounted for a personal-best 120 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns against the Panthers. Running back Ivory Kelly-Martin would return after missing the last two games with an ankle injury while tight end Noah Fant is expected to play after sitting out a few possessions in the first half against Northern Iowa with sore ribs.
The trendy pick here would be to take Iowa at home as an underdog, but Wisconsin is going to be focused after the loss last week and control the line of scrimmage in this one. Look for the Badgers to have success running the ball and Hornibrook will make some key plays to lead his team to victory.
Pick: Wisconsin -3
Betting Trends:
- Badgers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Badgers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.
- Badgers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- Badgers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
- Badgers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.
- Badgers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
- Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
- Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Hawkeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
- Hawkeyes are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Hawkeyes are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
- Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
- Hawkeyes are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Hawkeyes are 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 6-1 in Badgers last 7 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 5-1 in Badgers last 6 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 4-1 in Badgers last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Badgers last 7 games overall.
- Over is 5-2 in Badgers last 7 road games.
- Over is 15-6-1 in Badgers last 22 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 5-2 in Badgers last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 5-0 in Hawkeyes last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Hawkeyes last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 11-4-1 in Hawkeyes last 16 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 8-3 in Hawkeyes last 11 home games.
- Under is 12-5 in Hawkeyes last 17 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Under is 35-17-2 in Hawkeyes last 54 games in September.
- Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
- Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
