Western Michigan (6-4, 4-2) at Northern Illinois (7-3, 5-1)
When: Wednesday, November 15th 2017
Where: Huskie Stadium, DeKalb, IL
Time: 7:00 ET | TV: ESPN2
Opening Odds: Northern Illinois -8/52.5
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The Western Michigan Broncos and Northern Illinois Huskies are already headed to a Bowl game, but both are still going after something even bigger – a December 2nd date in Detroit in the MAC Championship Game. Both the Broncos (4-2) and Huskies (5-1) are looking up at West Division leader Toledo (5-1) with a chance to play the East winner in a few weeks. WMU finishes its regular season at Toledo next Friday, so a win over Northern Illinois would keep them alive. A win by the Huskies would keep them in no worse than a tie with Toledo for first (depending on the outcome of the Rockets’ game Wednesday night against Bowling Green). NIU will finish their regular season against Central Michigan next Friday night. Toledo owns tiebreakers over both Western Michigan and Northern Illinois by virtue of a pair of head-to-head wins, but any three could end up in the MAC Championship Game depending on how things shake out. Western Michigan ended a string of close contests with a 48-20 win over Kent State last Wednesday, while the Huskies have won five of six after a 63-17 drubbing against Ball State.
Western Michigan is led by a strong rushing attack that is tops in the MAC and 14th nationally at 249.2 rushing yards per game. Jarvion Franklin leads the conference with 1,061 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns and has recorded five straight 100-yard games and has run for 419 yards over his last two games. Freshman Reece Goddard will make this third start at quarterback for Western Michigan in place of John Wassink, who broke his collarbone against Eastern Michigan on October 21st. Wassink had thrown 14 touchdowns to only four interceptions before he got hurt and Goddard is struggling just to complete passes (16-for-40, 40%). The Broncos have scored seven defensive and special teams touchdowns this season, including three in last week’s rout of Kent State. Senior cornerback Darius Phillips has four of those (two kickoff returns, interception, fumble), and now has 12 returns for touchdowns in his career, the most in FBS history.
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While, the Broncos have a potent rushing attack, the Huskies will counter with one of the best at stopping the run. NIU ranks first in the MAC and 10th nationally at 109.8 rushing yards allowed per game, and has limited opponents to just eight rushing scores in 10 games. On the offensive side, the Huskies average 186.2 yards a game on the ground – good for fourth in the conference. Four different players have recorded at least 35 carries on the season and are led by Jordan Huff, who has 507 yards, but also missed three games because of injury. Quarterback Marcus Childers leads the team in both carries (110) and rushing touchdowns (four). As a team, the Huskies are averaging just 4.2 yards per carry, but have the second-most rushing attempts in the conference behind the Broncos. Childers has started each of the past five games at quarterback and has a 4-1 record to go along with some solid stats (13 TDs, 3 interceptions, 398 yard rushing, 4 TDs).
The ability to stop the run will be key for the Huskies. If they can do that, Western Michigan is in trouble, because Goddard hasn’t been good at creating plays. The edge goes to the home team here and I think this will be an easy win for Northern Illinois as they stay alive for the West Division crown.
Pick: Northern Illinois -9
TRENDS:
- Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Broncos are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 road games.
- Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
- Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
- Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Huskies are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Huskies are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Wednesday games.
- Huskies are 13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Huskies are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Huskies are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up win.
- Huskies are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games in November.
- Huskies are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games on fieldturf.
- Huskies are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Huskies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Huskies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 7-0 in Broncos last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Over is 6-1 in Broncos last 7 games in November.
- Under is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 6-2 in Broncos last 8 games overall.
- Over is 6-2 in Broncos last 8 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 6-2 in Broncos last 8 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 10-4-1 in Broncos last 15 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Huskies last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Huskies last 4 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Huskies last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Under is 13-3 in Huskies last 16 games in November.
- Under is 4-1 in Huskies last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 4-1 in Huskies last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Huskies last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-2 in Huskies last 8 home games.
- Under is 5-2 in Huskies last 7 Wednesday games.
- Under is 9-4 in Huskies last 13 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Northern Illinois.
- Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Broncos are 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
- Broncos are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Northern Illinois.
