Western Michigan (6-4) at Ball State (3-7)
When: Tuesday, November 13th 2018
Where: Scheumann Stadium,
Muncie, Indiana
Time: 6:00 ET | TV: ESPN2
Opening Odds: Western Michigan -7.5/59
With just four Bowl tie-ins for the Mid-American Conference, the Western Michigan Broncos could use another win or two to secure a bid, as the conference is likely to have six teams Bowl-eligible. The Broncos look to take the next step when they battle the Ball State Cardinals on the road on Tuesday night – airing on ESPN2. After an 0-2 start, Western Michigan reeled off six-straight wins before quarterback Jon Wassink suffered a season-ending injury in a loss to Toledo on October 25th. That forced true freshman Kaleb Eleby into the starting role, and the Broncos have been outscored 110-38 in the last two games against the Rockets and Ohio, dropping them to 4-2 in league-play. Western has yet to beat a team with a winning record but did record victories over Miami (Ohio) and Eastern Michigan. The Cardinals have lost four out of their last five overall and sit at 3-7 through 10 games. Ball State hasn’t had a winning record since 2013, and head coach Mike Neu’s 9-25 overall mark through three years has him on the hot seat. Quarterback Riley Neal, left tackle Kaleb Slaven and running backs James Gilbert and Caleb Huntley have missed time over the last two seasons. Those injuries have played a key role in Ball State’s recent slide and the last two games are all about getting an extended look at some of the young players that could be a factor in 2019. Western Michigan leads the all-time series 25-19 and have won the last four against the Cardinals, scoring at least 50 points in three of those victories.
The strength of both offenses will be the ground game with both starting quarterbacks on the shelf. The Broncos average 200 yards a game with their rushing attack and will rely heavily on its trio of running backs. Former 1,000-yard rusher Jamauri Bogan, junior LeVante Bellamy and freshman Chase Brown will go up against a Ball State defense ranked 11th in the MAC against the run. Bogan leads the team with 11 touchdowns on 117 carries and 534 yards, while Bellamy leads the Western Michigan attack with 907 yards and has scored five times on 140 carries. Bellamy, a junior, also averages 6.5 yards a rush and has caught 23 passes this fall.
Gilbert is the top option on the ground for Neu’s offense and has run for 586 yards and nine touchdowns this season but missed Ball State’s last contest against Toledo due to injury. Gilbert is expected to go Tuesday, but the coaching staff expects to lean on Malik Dunner and Will Jones as the top options against Western. Dunner has 238 yards and three scores this season, while Jones contributes 154 yards on just 21 carries. The Cardinals are giving up 215.3 rushing yards a games and have allowed 27 scores on the ground this year.
This one is all about the running game, and Western Michigan has a big advantage here. Plus, the Broncos have more to play for than Ball State, who is just playing out the string. I like the road team here.
Pick: Western Michigan -7.5
Betting Trends:
- Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Broncos are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Broncos are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
- Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
- Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
- Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.
- Cardinals are 30-14 ATS in their last 44 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 19-40 ATS in their last 59 home games.
- Cardinals are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Cardinals are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.
- Cardinals are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 conference games.
- Cardinals are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games in November.
- Cardinals are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
- Cardinals are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss.
- Cardinals are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games.
- Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.
- Over is 8-1 in Broncos last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Broncos last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Broncos last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 games in November.
- Over is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 Tuesday games.
- Under is 6-2 in Broncos last 8 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 33-11-1 in Broncos last 45 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Broncos last 8 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 7-3 in Broncos last 10 conference games.
- Under is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Cardinals last 7 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 8-2-1 in Cardinals last 11 games overall.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Cardinals last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Under is 8-2-1 in Cardinals last 11 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Cardinals last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 6-2 in Cardinals last 8 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2-1 in Cardinals last 9 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Cardinals last 5 conference games.
- Over is 5-2 in Cardinals last 7 games following a bye week.
- Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
- Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Ball State.
- Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
- Road team is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
