USC (1-0) at Stanford (1-1)
When: Saturday, September 8th 2018
Where: Stanford Stadium,
Stanford, California
Time: 8:30 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Stanford -4/53
In what is one of the best rivalries in the Pac-12 Conference, the Southern California Trojans and Stanford Cardinal will hook-up for a pivotal early-season matchup in Palo Alto Saturday night – a rematch of last season’s conference championship game. Both teams tuned up for this contest by taking care of a pair of Mountain West Conference foes, as USC beat UNLV 43-21 and Stanford dispatched of San Diego State 31-10. Stanford wide receiver JJ Arcega-Whiteside had a huge game, catching three long scoring passes from K.J. Costello and garnering Pac-12 Offensive player of the Week honors. He totaled 226 yards on just six catches while San Diego State focused on stopping Heisman Trophy candidate Bryce Love, who was held to 29 yards on 18 carries after rushing for 2,118 yards last season. USC comes in on a 16-1 run in conference games including a 31-28 victory over Stanford in the Pac-12 championship last year. USC’s JT Daniels became the second true freshman quarterback to start an opener for the school and went 22-of-35 for 282 yards against UNLV, connecting early and often with former high school teammate Amon-Ra St. Brown, who had seven receptions for 98 yards and a score. Seven of the past 12 meetings in the series have been decided by eight points or fewer.
USC got a big boost from Chase McGrath, who kicked five field goals to tie a school record against UNLV while running backs Aca’Cedric Ware (100 yards, TD) and Vavae Malepeai (2 TDs) helped take pressure off Danies. USC’s offensive line did a good job protecting the freshman quarterback despite not having senior center Toa Lobendahn. Redshirt freshman Brett Neilon filled-in admirably for Lobendahn, who is questionable due to a strained pectoral muscle. Defensively, Cameron Smith and Isaiah Pola-Mao combined for 14 tackles while linebacker Porter Gustin had two sacks. USC allowed 308 rushing yards against the Rebels and will need an improved effort against Love.
Costello finished 21-for-31 for a career-high 332 yards and four touchdowns against San Diego State as the Cardinal had to abandon the running game. Stanford won their 11th straight home opener and improved to 24-5 against in-state opponents under coach David Shaw. Linebackers Bobby Okereke, Joey Alfieri, Sean Barton and Mustafa Branch led the charge on defense, as Stanford held the Aztecs to 113 passing yards. Special teams was big for the Cardinal, like it was for USC last week, as senior punter/kicker Jake Bailey forced San Diego State to start 11 of 12 possessions inside its 30-yard-line. The defense surrendered a total of 263 yards but, allowed Juwan Washington to rush for 158 yards on 24 carries.
I don’t know how the Trojans are going to stop Love after what they let up against UNLV last week, and the Costello/Arcega-Whiteside connection is worth paying attention to also if you’re a USC defender. This will be Daniels’ first big game with USC, and he’s going to find it tough to get anything going against a solid Stanford defense. Lay the points.
Pick: Stanford -6
Betting Trends:
- Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Trojans are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Trojans are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Trojans are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Trojans are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games following a straight up win.
- Trojans are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 conference games.
- Trojans are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Trojans are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
- Trojans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Trojans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
- Trojans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
- Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
- Trojans are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Trojans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
- Cardinal are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Cardinal are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Cardinal are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cardinal are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Cardinal are 53-26-1 ATS in their last 80 games on grass.
- Cardinal are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.
- Cardinal are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.
- Cardinal are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cardinal are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
- Cardinal are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Cardinal are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Cardinal are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Cardinal are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Trojans last 4 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Trojans last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in Trojans last 7 games on grass.
- Over is 5-1 in Trojans last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Trojans last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Trojans last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-1 in Trojans last 6 conference games.
- Over is 4-1 in Trojans last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 7-2 in Trojans last 9 games overall.
- Over is 5-2 in Trojans last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 7-1 in Cardinal last 8 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 6-1 in Cardinal last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 5-1 in Cardinal last 6 home games.
- Under is 4-1 in Cardinal last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Cardinal last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Cardinal last 8 conference games.
- Under is 11-4 in Cardinal last 15 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 8-3 in Cardinal last 11 games overall.
- Under is 5-2 in Cardinal last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Under is 37-16 in Cardinal last 53 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
- Underdog is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
- Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
