Southern Cal (4-3) at Colorado (3-4)
When: Friday, October 25th 2019
Where: Folsom Field,
Boulder, Colorado
Time: 9:00 ET | TV: ESPN2
Opening Odds: Colorado -10.5/60.5
The Southern California Trojans enter Week 9 of the College Football season as the only Pac-12 team seeking their first road victory of 2019 and they’ll come in as 13.5-point favorites Friday night at the Colorado Buffaloes. The Trojans are 4-0 at home including a win over Utah, giving them the tiebreaker if it comes down to that in the Southern Division, but the road has been unkind – and tough. The three losses away from Los Angeles have come against BYU 30-27 in overtime, Washington 28-14, and No. 7 Notre Dame 30-27. USC needs to get healthy before finishing the season with three of five away from home. Running back Markese Stepp, who was filling in for injured starter and leading rusher Vavae Malepeai, suffered a torn ankle ligament early in the Trojan’s 41-14 win over Arizona last week and will need surgery. Meanwhile, standout safety Talanoa Hufanga, who ranks second on the team with 51 total tackles, dislocated his shoulder versus the Wildcats while defensive end Drake Jackson suffered a high-ankle sprain, and both are expected to miss at least one game. The Buffaloes are going to need to tighten-up their defense if they want to compete for a bowl-bid this season. The unit is giving up 34.9 points a game – 116th in FBS – and have allowed at least 30 points in all seven games thus far. Colorado has been blown-out in their last two games – both on the road – to Oregon and Washington State. The Buffs are looking for their first ever win against USC (0-13), and the Trojans have won six of the last eight by at least 11 points.
USC’s defense held an opponent to under 20 points for the first time this season in the win over Arizona, but still rank 92nd in the country in total defense (416.6) and have been gouged on the ground (189.4). With the injuries to the running game, USC has turned to freshman Kenan Christon and the speedy tailback rushed for 103 yards on only eight carries Saturday, including a 55 and 30-yard touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis has returned from a concussion to pass for 487 yards and four TDs without an interception the last two weeks. The talented wide receiving corps is led by Michael Pittman Jr. (43 catches, 599 yards, 5 touchdowns) and Tyler Vaughns (42, 534, 4). The Trojans will host Pac-12 North-leading Oregon next Saturday.
Colorado’s offense has not been able to keep up with the porous defense this season, ranking 65th overall (407.7) and 80th in rushing offense at 154.4 yards a game. Senior Steven Montez led the Buffaloes to 34.6 points per game during their 3-2 start, but have been limited to 13 total points the last two weeks. Montez has 10 touchdowns on the season, but has also thrown eight interceptions with six of those coming in the losses to Oregon and Wazzu. Alex Fontenot leads the rushing attack with 568 yards and a 5.0 average, while Tony Brown (37 receptions, 480 yards, four TDs) leads the receiving corps.
Colorado has a lot of problems defensively, but I do think they can keep up with USC here at home with the Friday night atmosphere. The home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Pick: Colorado +13.5 (More Week 9 Free Picks)
Betting Trends:
Trojans are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Trojans are 19-40-1 ATS in their last 60 games following a straight up win.
Trojans are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 road games.
Trojans are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Friday games.
Buffaloes are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games in October.
Buffaloes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
Buffaloes are 15-37 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Buffaloes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Buffaloes are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Buffaloes are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Buffaloes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Buffaloes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Buffaloes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Buffaloes are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
Buffaloes are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 conference games.
Buffaloes are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Buffaloes are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Buffaloes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 in Trojans last 5 games overall.
Over is 5-0 in Trojans last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Trojans last 4 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-0 in Trojans last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Trojans last 5 road games.
Under is 4-1 in Trojans last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 7-2 in Trojans last 9 games following a straight up win.
Under is 8-3 in Trojans last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Under is 5-2 in Trojans last 7 conference games.
Over is 4-0 in Buffaloes last 4 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Buffaloes last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 8-2 in Buffaloes last 10 Friday games.
Over is 4-1 in Buffaloes last 5 games on grass.
Under is 12-3 in Buffaloes last 15 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Under is 16-5 in Buffaloes last 21 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Buffaloes last 7 games in October.
Under is 14-6 in Buffaloes last 20 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 9-4 in Buffaloes last 13 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Over is 11-5 in Buffaloes last 16 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Home team is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
