UCLA (5-5, 3-4) at Southern California (9-2, 7-1)
When: Saturday, November 18th 2017
Where: L.A. Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: ABC
Opening Odds: Southern Cal -15/71
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The Southern California Trojans have already clinched the Pac-12 South Division title, but the UCLA Bruins still need a win in their last two games to become Bowl-eligible, and what better way to do that than against their biggest rival. USC leads the all-time series 48-31-7 and has won the past two meetings and 14 of 18, but the Bruins are the more desperate team after missing out on the postseason last year. USC quarterback Sam Darnold has turned his season around after a rough start, throwing 12 touchdown passes and two interceptions in the past five games to improve to 18-3 as a starter for the Trojans. Darnold has spread the ball around, hitting four different receivers for at least 59 yards last week. UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen is also playing better of late following a four-game stretch in which he threw eight interceptions. The Trojans regular season ends tonight, while the Bruins will host California next week in what may be a bowl-breaking game if they can’t end USC’s 15-game home winning streak on Saturday.
Rosen is eager to be playing the Trojans again after missing last season’s game with an injury and turning the ball over three times as a freshman in a 40-21 loss at the Coliseum in 2015. Two of the top three receivers for the Bruins have had their seasons ended by injuries, leaving wide receiver Jordan Lasley as the No. 1 target for Rosen. Lasley came off a three-game suspension last week and caught seven passes for a career-high 162 yards and a touchdown in a 44-37 win against visiting Arizona State. The Bruins defense has let them down all season, ranking 124th in total defense (499.0 yards/game) and 130th against the run (302.3).
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Because of the Bruins lack of a rush defense, expect the Trojans to hand the ball off a lot to Ronald Jones II, who has combined for 183 rushing yards and two touchdowns in two games against UCLA. The Bruins gave up 294 on the ground last week against Arizona State. Jones has crossed the end zone six times in the past three games and has 15 totals TDs on the season. The Trojans defense has been a little better than UCLA’s, but they’re still giving up over 400 yards a game and 26.5 points per contest. USC will play one of three teams in the Pac-12 Championship Game – Washington State, Washington, or Stanford.
This has blowout written all over it. I don’t care how good Rosen is or how much of a pro-prospect he will be – the Bruins defense can’t stop a high school team right now. I expect Jones to get over 200 yards rushing and for the Trojans to win easily.
Pick: USC -15.5
TRENDS:
- Bruins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Bruins are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games on grass.
- Bruins are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Bruins are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
- Bruins are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Bruins are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 conference games.
- Bruins are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bruins are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
- Bruins are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.
- Bruins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Bruins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bruins are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games.
- Trojans are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
- Trojans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Trojans are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
- Trojans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Trojans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Trojans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Bruins last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Bruins last 4 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 5-1 in Bruins last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 8-2 in Bruins last 10 games overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Bruins last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Bruins last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 4-1 in Bruins last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Bruins last 5 conference games.
- Under is 9-3 in Bruins last 12 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2-1 in Bruins last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 8-3-1 in Bruins last 12 games in November.
- Over is 5-2 in Bruins last 7 games on grass.
- Over is 5-2 in Bruins last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Bruins last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Trojans last 5 games overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Trojans last 4 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Trojans last 4 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Trojans last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Trojans last 4 games on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Trojans last 4 conference games.
- Over is 5-2 in Trojans last 7 home games.
- Over is 5-2 in Trojans last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings in Southern California.
- Under is 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings.
- Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
- Home team is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 meetings.
- Bruins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Southern California.
