Minnesota (86-52) at Boston (74-64)
When: Wednesday, September 4, 2019
Where: Fenway Park,
Boston, MA
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: MLB Network
Opening Odds: Boston -140/11
The Minnesota Twins are well on their way to the playoffs and have the best road record in baseball, yet they were underdogs Tuesday night in Boston. Well, the Twins are proving they are a force to be reckoned with come October and took care of the Red Sox 6-5 in the opener of a three-game set at Fenway Park. The Twins were being threatened by the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central, but have now opened a 6.5-game lead thanks to a 47-23 road record and winning nine of their last 10 games overall. Miguel Sano homered and drove in three runs, while Nelson Cruz also went deep as Minnesota improved to 7-1 on its 10-game road trip. The loss kept Boston 5.5 games out of the second wild card spot in the American League with only 24 contests left. Rafael Devers’ three-run dinger improved his AL-leading RBI total to 107 for the Red Sox, who will play the Twins and Yankees over the next six days. J.D. Martinez, who is 5-for-14 against Wednesday starter Jose Berrios, is just 3-for-20 in four games versus Minnesota this season. Boston will send lefty and 16-game winner Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound as -128 favorites.
Pitchers: Twins – Jose Berrios (11-7, 3.57 ERA) | Red Sox – Eduardo Rodriguez (16-5, 3.97)
Berrios has been knocked around in his last five starts, but did just enough to earn his first victory in nearly a month last time out with a quality start at the Chicago White Sox. The righty had an 8.53 ERA in his previous four starts before limiting the White Sox to three runs and seven hits over six innings. Berrios has a 3.23 ERA in four meetings with Boston, but the Twins are just 1-3 in those games due in large part to being shutout in two of those contests.
Rodriguez has been getting a ton of run support lately including his last two outings in which the Red Sox have totaled 18 runs in road victories at San Diego and Colorado. The lefty surrendered three runs and nine hits over five innings against the Rockies but earned his 16th win. That was on the heels of two straight scoreless outings over the Padres and Orioles. Rodriguez is 2-1 with a 4.24 versus the Twins in five starts.
Berrios hasn’t pitched that well lately, but he did have one of his best outings of the season against Boston on June 17th. Also, the Twins offense is going to back him with plenty of runs against Rodriguez. Look for Minnesota to keep the roll going.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Wednesday. He is 122-83 +2668 units on the season after a 23-10 run!
Pick: Twins +118
BETTING TRENDS:
Twins are 9-1 in their last 10 overall.
Twins are 9-1 in their last 10 games on grass.
Twins are 7-1 in their last 8 games following a win.
Twins are 7-1 in their last 8 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Twins are 5-1 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.
Twins are 24-7 in their last 31 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Twins are 50-16 in their last 66 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Twins are 38-15 in their last 53 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Twins are 38-16 in their last 54 road games.
Twins are 9-4 in their last 13 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Twins are 9-4 in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Twins are 37-17 in their last 54 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Twins are 35-17 in their last 52 vs. American League East.
Twins are 2-5 in their last 7 Wednesday games.
Twins are 4-0 in Berrios’ last 4 road starts.
Twins are 4-1 in Berrios’ last 5 starts vs. American League East.
Twins are 5-2 in Berrios’ last 7 starts during game 2 of a series.
Twins are 12-5 in Berrios’ last 17 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Twins are 7-3 in Berrios’ last 10 Wednesday starts.
Twins are 5-18 in Berrios’ last 23 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Twins are 1-4 in Berrios’ last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Twins are 1-4 in Berrios’ last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Twins are 0-6 in Berrios’ last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a loss.
Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Red Sox are 6-2 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Red Sox are 41-14 in their last 55 Wednesday games.
Red Sox are 20-8 in their last 28 vs. American League Central.
Red Sox are 5-2 in their last 7 during game 2 of a series.
Red Sox are 5-2 in their last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Red Sox are 7-3 in their last 10 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Red Sox are 11-5 in their last 16 overall.
Red Sox are 11-5 in their last 16 games on grass.
Red Sox are 2-8 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Red Sox are 1-7 in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Red Sox are 11-0 in Rodriguez’s last 11 Wednesday starts.
Red Sox are 10-1 in Rodriguez’s last 11 starts vs. American League Central.
Red Sox are 5-1 in Rodriguez’s last 6 starts with 6 days of rest.
Red Sox are 41-11 in Rodriguez’s last 52 starts.
Red Sox are 41-11 in Rodriguez’s last 52 starts on grass.
Red Sox are 20-7 in Rodriguez’s last 27 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Red Sox are 22-8 in Rodriguez’s last 30 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Red Sox are 19-7 in Rodriguez’s last 26 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Red Sox are 8-3 in Rodriguez’s last 11 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Red Sox are 38-17 in Rodriguez’s last 55 home starts.
Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Twins last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 11-3 in Twins last 14 Wednesday games.
Over is 21-6 in Twins last 27 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 7-2 in Twins last 9 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 6-2 in Twins last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 6-2 in Twins last 8 vs. American League East.
Over is 7-3 in Twins last 10 during game 2 of a series.
Over is 9-4-2 in Twins last 15 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Over is 9-4-1 in Twins last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 33-16-2 in Twins last 51 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Over is 41-20-2 in Twins last 63 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Over is 6-0-1 in Berrios’ last 7 starts on grass.
Over is 3-0-1 in Berrios’ last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
Over is 4-0 in Berrios’ last 4 road starts.
Over is 6-0-1 in Berrios’ last 7 starts overall.
Under is 3-0-1 in Berrios’ last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1-1 in Berrios’ last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 3-1-1 in Berrios’ last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 3-1-1 in Berrios’ last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Under is 3-1-1 in Berrios’ last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 3-1-1 in Berrios’ last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 19-7-4 in Berrios’ last 30 starts with 5 days of rest.
Over is 7-3 in Berrios’ last 10 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 Wednesday games.
Under is 6-1 in Red Sox last 7 home games.
Under is 5-1-1 in Red Sox last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 10-3 in Red Sox last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 6-2-1 in Red Sox last 9 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 6-2-1 in Red Sox last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 3-1-1 in Red Sox last 5 during game 2 of a series.
Over is 20-7 in Red Sox last 27 games following a loss.
Over is 7-1 in Rodriguez’s last 8 starts vs. American League Central.
Under is 4-1 in Rodriguez’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Rodriguez’s last 5 home starts.
Under is 20-6 in Rodriguez’s last 26 starts during game 2 of a series.
Over is 12-4 in Rodriguez’s last 16 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 11-4 in Rodriguez’s last 15 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 21-9 in Rodriguez’s last 30 starts overall.
Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Boston.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Twins are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings in Boston.
Twins are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings.
