Tennessee (3-4) at Dallas (3-4)
When: Monday, November 5th 2018
Where: AT&T Stadium,
Arlington, Texas
Time: 8:15 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Dallas -4/42
Two strong defenses will do battle on Monday Night Football as the Tennessee Titans visit the Dallas Cowboys to conclude the Week 9 NFL schedule. While the defenses have kept these teams close to .500, its their offenses that have prevented Tennessee and Dallas from excelling this season. The Titans started 3-1, but have now lost three straight – including the last two at home – and have been outscored by 23 points during the skid. A major reason for the decline has been the play of their 30th-ranked scoring offense, only managing 15.1 points per game. Quarterback Marcus Mariota has not been very productive, passing for only three touchdowns and has thrown five interceptions. The Cowboys have been completely opposite between home and away games, going 3-0 at AT&T Stadium and 0-4 on the road. Their offense ranks 26th in the league in scoring (20 pts per game) and they have surpassed 200 yards passing just twice this season, averaging 183.1 yards per game (29th). The Titans have won two of their three trips to Dallas since the team moved to Tennessee in 1999 and have five wins in the past six Monday night appearances (6-0 ATS). The Cowboys have fared well on Monday nights as well, winning their last three games. The Cowboys are 1-4 against the spread in the last five games versus the Titans. Dallas (17.6) and Tennessee (18.1) rank second and third, respectively, in the NFL in points allowed.
Part of Mariota’s problem is that he injured his elbow in the season opener and has been dealing with numbness in his throwing hand. That, and the loss the of tight end Delanie Walker to a season-ending injury in Week 1, has contributed to Mariota’s woes – he has been held to 129 yards or fewer in four of his six games. The running back tandem of Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry also has struggled, although Lewis gained 155 yards from scrimmage in Tennessee’s last contest. Henry ranks 38th in the NFL in rushing with 284 yards on 84 carries with only one touchdown entering Week 9. The Titans rank 19th in the league against the run, allowing 112.3 yards per game.
The offseason departures of Dez Bryant and Jason Witten has hampered Dallas’ passing attack, prompting them to trade for Amari Cooper this week to jump-start a passing offense ranked 29th in the NFL. Cooper was not having a great season in Oakland, recording 22 catches and one touchdown after hauling in 48 receptions and seven touchdowns last season. The Cowboys have the league’s fourth-ranked ground game thanks to Ezekiel Elliott, who is second in the NFL in rushing with 619 yards and has three 100-yard outings. Dallas ranks third overall in total defense (313.7) and against the pass (217.4).
This should be a pretty low-scoring game provided the defenses do their job. The Titans have been a pretty good dog this year, covering four of five in that situation with three outright victories. I expect Mariota to step up his game and outplay Prescott in this one to keep it very close.
Pick: Titans +4.5
Betting Trends:
- Titans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.
- Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss.
- Titans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Titans are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 road games.
- Titans are 12-25-3 ATS in their last 40 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Titans are 17-37-1 ATS in their last 55 games following a ATS win.
- Titans are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week.
- Titans are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Titans are 9-27-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Titans are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Titans are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games in November.
- Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 9-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cowboys are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following a bye week.
- Cowboys are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 Monday games.
- Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 9.
- Over is 5-0 in Titans last 5 games in Week 9.
- Under is 5-1 in Titans last 6 games overall.
- Under is 5-1 in Titans last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-1 in Titans last 5 games in November.
- Under is 4-1 in Titans last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Titans last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 4-1 in Titans last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Under is 7-3 in Titans last 10 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 7-0 in Cowboys last 7 games following a bye week.
- Over is 8-1 in Cowboys last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 13-3 in Cowboys last 16 games overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games in November.
- Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 15-4-2 in Cowboys last 21 games in Week 9.
- Under is 6-2 in Cowboys last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 8-3 in Cowboys last 11 games on fieldturf.
