Detroit (85-71) at Cleveland (84-72)
When: Tuesday, September 23rd 2025
Where: Progressive Field,
Cleveland, OH
Time: 6:40 ET | TV: mlb.tv
Opening Odds: Detroit -158/7
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Tigers vs Guardians Recent Meetings
| Date | Home/Away | H Starter | A Starter | Line | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/18/25 | DET 1 - CLE 3 | T. Skubal | T. Bibee | -225/7 | U |
| 9/17/25 | DET 0 - CLE 4 | J. Flaherty | G. Williams | -150/8 | U |
| 9/16/25 | DET 5 - CLE 7 x | C. Mize | J. Cantillo | -145/8 | O |
| 7/6/25 | CLE 2 - DET 7 x | G. Williams | T. Skubal | 185/7 | O |
| 7/5/25 | CLE 0 - DET 1 | L. Allen | C. Mize | 120/9 | U |
| 7/4/25 | CLE 1 - DET 2 | S. Cecconi | R. Olson | 105/8.5 | U |
| 5/25/25 | DET 5 - CLE 0 | T. Skubal | L. Allen | -298/6.5 | U |
| 5/24/25 | DET 5 - CLE 7 x | C. Mize | L. Ortiz | -140/8 | O |
| 5/23/25 | DET 1 - CLE 3 | J. Jobe | S. Cecconi | -104/8.5 | U |
| 5/22/25 | DET 0 - CLE 7 | J. Flaherty | T. Bibee | -119/8 | U |
| 2024 Season | |||||
| 10/12/24 | CLE 7 - DET 3 | M. Boyd | T. Skubal | 100/6 | O |
| 10/10/24 | DET 4 - CLE 5 | R. Olson | T. Bibee | 111/6.5 | O |
| 10/9/24 | DET 3 - CLE 0 | K. Montero | A. Cobb | 103/7.5 | U |
| 10/7/24 | CLE 0 - DET 3 | M. Boyd | T. Skubal | 114/6 | U |
| 10/5/24 | CLE 7 - DET 0 | T. Bibee | T. Holton | -128/7 | P |
| 7/30/24 | DET 0 - CLE 5 | T. Holton | G. Williams | 117/8 | U |
| 7/29/24 | DET 4 - CLE 8 | B. Brieske | T. Bibee | 142/7.5 | O |
| 7/25/24 | CLE 0 - DET 3 | G. Williams | T. Holton | -142/7.5 | U |
| 7/24/24 | CLE 2 - DET 1 | T. Bibee | J. Flaherty | -137/7 | U |
| 7/23/24 | CLE 5 - DET 4 | X. Curry | T. Holton | -127/8.5 | O |
Tarik Skubal L10 Starts
| Date | vs | S/R | Res | Score | IP | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | P | P/IP | GB:FB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/18/25 | CLE | S | ND | 1-3 | 6.0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 102 | 17.0 | 2.00 |
| 9/12/25 | @ MIA | S | L | 2-8 | 3.1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 45 | 13.5 | 3.00 |
| 9/6/25 | CHW | S | W | 6-0 | 7.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 90 | 12.9 | 2.67 |
| 8/31/25 | @ KC | S | W | 5-0 | 7.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 93 | 13.3 | 1.00 |
| 8/25/25 | @ ATH | S | L | 3-8 | 6.2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 99 | 14.8 | 1.00 |
| 8/19/25 | HOU | S | ND | 1-0 | 7.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 95 | 13.6 | 1.67 |
| 8/14/25 | @ MIN | S | ND | 4-3 | 7.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 99 | 14.1 | 2.25 |
| 8/8/25 | LAA | S | ND | 6-5 | 4.2 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 92 | 19.7 | 1.00 |
| 8/2/25 | @ PHI | S | W | 7-5 | 7.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 98 | 14.0 | 1.00 |
| 7/26/25 | TOR | S | ND | 1-6 | 6.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 96 | 16.0 | 1.67 |
Gavin Williams L10 Starts
| Date | vs | S/R | Res | Score | IP | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | P | P/IP | GB:FB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/17/25 | @ DET | S | W | 4-0 | 5.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 100 | 20.0 | 1.50 |
| 9/11/25 | KC | S | ND | 3-2 | 6.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 105 | 17.5 | 1.20 |
| 9/5/25 | @ TB | S | W | 7-1 | 7.0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 95 | 13.6 | 3.00 |
| 8/30/25 | SEA | S | W | 4-3 | 7.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 95 | 13.6 | 1.67 |
| 8/24/25 | @ TEX | S | L | 0-5 | 3.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 90 | 27.0 | .00 |
| 8/18/25 | @ AZ | S | W | 3-1 | 5.1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 99 | 18.6 | 1.00 |
| 8/13/25 | MIA | S | ND | 4-13 | 3.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 75 | 25.0 | 1.50 |
| 8/6/25 | @ NYM | S | W | 4-1 | 8.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 126 | 14.5 | 3.25 |
| 8/1/25 | MIN | S | ND | 3-2 | 6.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 96 | 16.0 | 7.00 |
| 7/26/25 | @ KC | S | ND | 3-5 | 6.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 79 | 13.2 | 2.25 |
Prediction
At one point, we thought the American League Central was going to be the first division clinched this summer. The Tigers were dominating everyone and running away with it. Well, that’s why you play 162 games. In one of the most dramatic turnarounds I’ve ever seen, the Guardians are right back on Detroit’s heels. On September 10th, the Tigers had a 99% chance of winning the division. Since that date, Detroit is 1-10 and Cleveland is 10-1 and the lead is just one game.
We know Skubal is good, but Williams has actually been better lately. In his last five starts, Skubal has been hit hard twice, while Williams has had five straight starts of allowing three runs or less. Also, vs. Detroit this season, Williams has allowed four hits and zero runs over 11 innings. The fact that the Tigers are favored by this much on the road amazes me. Give me the red-hot Guardians at home.
Pick: Guardians +145
