Oklahoma City (49-33) at Portland (53-29)
When: Sunday, April 14th, 2019
Where: Moda Center,
Portland, Oregon
Time: 3:30 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Portland -4/224
Two of the hotter teams down the stretch in the NBA’s regular season will battle in what should be a fun first round series in the Western Conference as the Oklahoma City Thunder visit the Portland Trail Blazers in Game 1 of their best-of-seven. Two of the best point guards will be on display with Russell Westbrook of Oklahoma City and Portland’s Damian Lillard always seem to up their game when opposing each other. Despite finishing four games behind the Blazers in the overall standings, the Thunder swept all four games during the season series including a couple of nail-bitters at Moda Center. Portland won five of their last six regular season games to just edge out Houston for the No. 3 seed, while OKC won their last five, covering the spread in four of them. Portland had one of the better home marks in the league, going 32-9 straight-up and 24-16-1 ATS, with the Thunder coming in at 22-19 away from home – tied for second in the Western Conference. The battle under the basket could be the most interesting matchup of the series, as Portland is still dealing with the loss of Jusuf Nurkic. The Blazers will hope center Enes Kanter can hang tough with Oklahoma City’s Steven Adams – his former Thunder teammate.
Westbrook averaged another triple-double for the season, while almost doing the same in the four meetings with Portland at 29.5 points, 10 rebounds and 8.8 assists. The Thunder will hope forward Paul George’s ailing right shoulder won’t be an issue this postseason, as the All-Star insists he’ll be ready for Game 1. George tortured the Blazers this season to the tune of 38 points and 10.5 rebounds per contest. George fell one point shy of his career high in a February meeting when he had 47 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists for the only triple-double of the season in a 120-111 home win over Portland.
Lillard also excelled in the season series, averaging 34.8 points and 7.8 assists in the four games, but he’ll need to get help from shooting guard CJ McCollum, who missed 10 games late in the season with a knee injury. McCollum averaged just 10 points and made just 8-of-26 field-goal attempts including 2-of-11 from 3-point range in two games before being rested in the season finale. Kanter has recorded double-doubles in five of his last six games coming into the postseason.
In order for Portland to make a run this postseason, they’ll need a healthy McCollum and it appears he’s not quite there yet. Going up against Westbrook and George has been a real grind for this Blazers team in 2018-19 and I’m banking on Westbrook to have a huge game here and pull off a Game 1 victory.
Pick: Thunder +3.5
Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Thunder are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Thunder are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Northwest.
Thunder are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 Sunday games.
Thunder are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 vs. Western Conference.
Trail Blazers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Trail Blazers are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Trail Blazers are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
Trail Blazers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.
Trail Blazers are 7-24-2 ATS in their last 33 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Northwest.
Trail Blazers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Under is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
Over is 3-0-1 in Thunder last 4 road games.
Over is 3-0-1 in Thunder last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 5-0 in Thunder last 5 games following a ATS win.
Over is 5-1 in Thunder last 6 games following a straight up win.
Over is 4-1 in Thunder last 5 vs. NBA Northwest.
Under is 16-6-1 in Thunder last 23 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Thunder last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Under is 5-2 in Thunder last 7 Sunday games.
Under is 34-16-1 in Thunder last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 48-23-1 in Thunder last 72 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 vs. NBA Northwest.
Over is 6-1 in Trail Blazers last 7 Sunday games.
Over is 4-1 in Trail Blazers last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 16-5-1 in Trail Blazers last 22 home games.
Under is 6-2-1 in Trail Blazers last 9 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Trail Blazers last 7 vs. Western Conference.
Under is 5-2 in Trail Blazers last 7 games following a ATS win.
Over is 7-3 in Trail Blazers last 10 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Thunder are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
