Texas (9-4) vs Georgia (11-2)
When: Tuesday, January 1st 2019
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome,
New Orleans, Louisiana
Time: 8:45 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Georgia -10/58
Texas Longhorns head coach Tom Herman is very quietly bringing back this football program to national prominence and could cap a 10-win season with a victory over the Georgia Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl on January 1st. Texas dropped their season opener to Maryland, but won their next six and were a legitimate Big 12 contender all season, finishing second, then losing a rematch with Oklahoma in the conference title game. They were actually tied in the fourth quarter of that game before allowing 12 unanswered points to the powerful Sooners. The Longhorns offense is led by sophomore quarterback Sam Ehlinger, who passed for 25 touchdowns with five interceptions, rushed for 13 touchdowns and has already accumulated 5,038 passing yards in two seasons. Georgia has a pretty good gunslinger of their own in Jake Fromm, who completed 68.4 percent of his passes for 2,537 yards and 27 touchdowns with five interceptions, taking playing time away from highly-touted freshman Justin Fields. The Bulldogs just missed out on making the CFP, losing to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game despite holding a 28-14 third quarter lead. Defensive coordinator Mel Tucker left to take the head job at Colorado and will not be on the sidelines to guide a defense that ranked 14th in points allowed (18.5). Georgia head coach Kirby Smart is 3-0 ATS in Bowl/Playoff games, while Herman is 2-0 SU/ATS.
Ehlinger’s success is made possible by having two terrific targets in Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Collin Johnson, who have combined for 144 receptions, 2,054 yards and 16 touchdowns. Another reason for the offensive success is a very strong – and healthy – offensive line that helped the Longhorns average 31.3 points per game and missed only three combined games this season. That experience will be extremely helpful when it comes to taking on an SEC-powerhouse like Georgia. Senior defensive end Charles Omenihu was named the Big 12 defensive lineman of the year, leading the conference with 9.5 sacks.
The Bulldogs can do it through the air with Fromm or on the ground with the nation’s 12th-best rushing offense at 251.6 yards a game. That helped Georgia average a healthy 39.2 points a contest behind sophomore D’Andre Swift (1,037 yards, 10 touchdowns) and junior Elijah Holyfield (956 yards, seven scores). Georgia has always been solid on defense and this year was no different, allowing only 19.3 points per game, led by All-American defensive back Deandre Baker and his 40 tackles, two interceptions and 10 pass breakups. The defense had just 22 sacks on the season, but still hold opponents to 97 yards per game less than they average.
Georgia is the better team here, but Texas is a little more excited to be here and they are a pretty solid team all around. Tom Herman is excellent as an underdog, winning outright 10 times in 15 chances. Give me Texas as a double-digit dog any day of the week.
Pick: Texas +12.5
Betting Trends:
- Longhorns are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Longhorns are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Longhorns are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss.
- Longhorns are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
- Longhorns are 13-6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Longhorns are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Longhorns are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on fieldturf.
- Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
- Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
- Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
- Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
- Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games.
- Bulldogs are 19-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Bulldogs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.
- Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
- Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 9-2 in Longhorns last 11 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Longhorns last 5 Bowl games.
- Over is 4-1 in Longhorns last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 4-1 in Longhorns last 5 bowl games.
- Under is 7-2 in Longhorns last 9 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 10-3 in Longhorns last 13 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 20-7-1 in Longhorns last 28 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 31-11 in Longhorns last 42 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 19-7 in Longhorns last 26 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 16-6 in Longhorns last 22 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 48-23 in Longhorns last 71 games overall.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Bulldogs last 4 neutral site games.
- Over is 4-1-2 in Bulldogs last 7 games overall.
- Under is 4-1-2 in Bulldogs last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Bulldogs last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 7-2-2 in Bulldogs last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-3 in Bulldogs last 10 Bowl games.
- Over is 13-6 in Bulldogs last 19 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 17-8-1 in Bulldogs last 26 games following a straight up loss.
