TCU (1-0) at SMU (0-1)
When: Friday, September 7th 2018
Where: Gerald J. Ford Stadium,
Dallas, Texas
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: ESPN2
Opening Odds: TCU -17.5/64
The TCU Horned Frogs need a couple of ‘preseason’ games to get tuned up for their huge non-conference tilt with Ohio State in Week 3, and will get to do that when they visit the defenseless SMU Mustangs on Friday night – kicking off Week 2 of the College Football schedule. The Frogs made easy work of FCS-member Southern in a 55-7 route last week behind dual-threat sophomore quarterback Shawn Robinson’s five touchdowns – three passing, two rushing. Southern had no answer for TCU, which racked-up 235 yards rushing in the win, but will have their first road test on Friday. SMU is coming off their first Bowl season since 2012, but were demolished by Louisiana Tech in the Frisco Bowl last December after coach Chad Morris left for Arkansas. The Mustangs didn’t get off to a good start last week on the road against North Texas, allowing 529 yards in a 46-23 loss as just 3.5-point underdogs. SMU, which is now being led by new coach Sonny Dykes, trailed 36-0 in the fourth quarter and allowed at least 31 points in seven consecutive games going back to last season. This will be the 98th meeting between these two schools, who are playing for the Iron Skillet. SMU led the contest last year 19-7 before TCU closed the first half with three TDs in the last 7:30 and never looked back.
Robinson separated himself with fellow sophomore quarterback Michael Collins in what is still an open. Collins impressed with his arm strength in Week 1, adding a passing score and 71 yards in five attempts. TCU really spread the ball around last week against Southern as 10 different players caught at least one pass and four of them scored a touchdown. Six different players also ran for 20 yards or more with no one getting more than eight carries. After one week, the Horned Frogs rank ninth in the country in yards allowed at 185, but will be tested by a SMU offense that averaged 37.8 points a game last season.
Dykes’ offense got off to a very slow start against North Texas last week, managing only 24 yards in the first half, and the Mustangs finished with four rushing yards total. Dykes, who took over last December and coached the 51-10 Frisco Bowl loss to Louisiana Tech, served as an offensive analyst under Gary Patterson at TCU last season after being fired as the coach of California and is known for high-powered offenses. Running back Braeden West, who did his best work as a receiver with three catches for 86 yards and a touchdown, and also rushed for a score.
I really don’t know how SMU is going to slow down TCU here. The only hope they have of covering this huge spread is if the Frogs are looking ahead to next week. The Mustangs do have the offense to score some points, although they were not good last week. I can see a repeat of last year’s game where SMU hangs around for a half, but TCU takes over in the second half and cruises. I’m going to lay the points here.
Pick: TCU -22.5
Betting Trends:
- Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Horned Frogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
- Horned Frogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Horned Frogs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Horned Frogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Horned Frogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Horned Frogs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in September.
- Horned Frogs are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Horned Frogs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
- Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
- Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
- Mustangs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Mustangs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big 12.
- Mustangs are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.
- Mustangs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Mustangs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Mustangs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Friday games.
- Mustangs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
- Mustangs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
- Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
- Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Mustangs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
- Mustangs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Horned Frogs last 5 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in Horned Frogs last 4 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 7-1 in Horned Frogs last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Horned Frogs last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 4-1 in Horned Frogs last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Horned Frogs last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 8-2 in Horned Frogs last 10 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 4-1 in Horned Frogs last 5 vs. AAC.
- Under is 4-1 in Horned Frogs last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 9-3 in Horned Frogs last 12 non-conference games.
- Over is 9-3 in Horned Frogs last 12 games in September.
- Under is 6-2 in Horned Frogs last 8 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 19-7 in Horned Frogs last 26 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 8-3 in Horned Frogs last 11 games overall.
- Under is 5-2 in Horned Frogs last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Under is 5-2 in Horned Frogs last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Mustangs last 4 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 8-2 in Mustangs last 10 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Mustangs last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 17-6 in Mustangs last 23 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 5-2 in Mustangs last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 27-11 in Mustangs last 38 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 7-3 in Mustangs last 10 non-conference games.
- Over is 9-4 in Mustangs last 13 vs. Big 12.
- Over is 20-9 in Mustangs last 29 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
