Pittsburgh (8-5-1) at New Orleans (12-2)
When: Sunday, December 23rd 2018
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome,
New Orleans, Louisiana
Time: 4:25 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: New Orleans -7/57.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers desperately needed a win last week and got just that when taking down the defending AFC champion New England Patriots, but it won’t get any easier this week as Ben Roethlisberger and company visit the 12-2 New Orleans Saints on Sunday. Pittsburgh halted a three-game winning streak and now control their own destiny towards the postseason and the AFC North title. The Baltimore Ravens currently sit a half-game back entering Saturday’s game at the L.A. Chargers. The Steelers running game has not been productive this year without Le’Veon Bell, but they’ve had some big moments out of James Connor and more recently, Jaylen Samuels, who rushed the ball 19 times for 142 yards against the Patriots. The rookie entered the game with just 59 yards on the ground rushing primarily in a role as the back-up. Connor has been downgraded to doubtful versus the Saints, so Samuels will get a chance to prove last week wasn’t a fluke. The Saints offense has stalled a bit, but the defense has picked up the slack, including Monday night, when New Orleans held the Carolina Panthers to just a trick-play touchdown on a fake punt in the 12-9 win. Currently, the Saints are ranked 11th in total defense, allowing an average of 341.6 yards per game, and No. 1 against the rush, allowing just 79.1 yards per contest. The defense has allowed just 11.8 points a game over the last six. This will be just the fifth meeting between these teams since 1994 and the Saints topped the Steelers 35-32 in the most recent in 2014. The Steelers are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five games following a cover and 4-1 ATS in their last five following a straight up win. The Saints are 5-1 at home, including 4-0 ATS in their last four.
Conner was named to his first Pro Bowl on Tuesday and is 91 yards shy of reaching 1,000 for the first time in his career but was limited in practice this week after missing the last two games. If Samuels has to fill the void again, he’ll do it behind an offensive line that had three members named to the AFC Pro Bowl squad earlier this week. Wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (groin) was also limited in practice but is expected to play. Pittsburgh’s defense, which really stepped up versus New England, is sixth against the run and 13th versus the pass.
The Pittsburgh rush defense better be ready for the dynamic duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, who combined for 130 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries Monday to keep the offense moving. Drew Brees has not exceeded 204 yards passing since November 18 against the Eagles, and over the last four games, has averaged just 175 yards passing. The Saints are getting solid play from the defensive secondary, led by cornerbacks Marshon Lattimore and Eli Apple, but still rank 28th against the pass (262.5). New Orleans can wrap-up homefield advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs with wins in their final two games – they are home to Carolina next week.
I’ve been impressed with this New Orleans defense lately, but the offense seems to sputtering. Granted, they just played three-straight on the road and now their back home where they usually score in bunches. The Steelers defense has been doing a find job as well, but they’ve been having some offensive issues also. The total is pretty high and four of the last five Pittsburgh games have gone under and the last five for New Orleans as well. I’ll say that trend continues here.
Pick: UNDER 53
Betting Trends:
- Steelers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
- Steelers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Steelers are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Steelers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
- Steelers are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games in Week 16.
- Steelers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Steelers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Steelers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in December.
- Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
- Saints are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games on fieldturf.
- Saints are 25-5 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Saints are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
- Saints are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
- Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 16.
- Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Saints are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win.
- Saints are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Saints are 48-21-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-1 in Steelers last 7 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 games overall.
- Under is 9-3 in Steelers last 12 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2-1 in Steelers last 9 games in Week 16.
- Under is 23-9 in Steelers last 32 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 10-4 in Steelers last 14 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 36-15 in Steelers last 51 road games.
- Under is 16-7-1 in Steelers last 24 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 9-4 in Steelers last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 5-0 in Saints last 5 games overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 7-2 in Saints last 9 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 7-2 in Saints last 9 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 15-5-1 in Saints last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 12-4 in Saints last 16 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 9-4 in Saints last 13 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 11-5 in Saints last 16 games in Week 16.
- Over is 19-9-1 in Saints last 29 home games.
