Pittsburgh (5-4) at Cleveland (3-6)
When: Thursday, November 14th, 2019
Where: FirstEnergy Stadium,
Cleveland, Ohio
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Cleveland -2.5/41.5
The Cleveland Browns, along with the Chicago Bears, were the most bet team in the futures market to win the Super Bowl in 2020. Well, 10 weeks into the season and neither may finish above .500. The Browns need to string together wins badly starting with Thursday night’s tilt against their AFC North rivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Cleveland has been so disappointing that many think first-year head coach Freddie Kitchens won’t get a second season. He had never even been an NFL coordinator until about midway through the 2018 season when the Browns fired Coach Hue Jackson. The Browns had lost four in a row straight-up (0-4 ATS) until an ugly 19-16 home win over the Buffalo Bills last weekend and are just 2-6-1 ATS on the season. Pittsburgh lost future Hall of Fame quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to a season-ending injury in Week 2 this year and it looked like a lost season at 0-3 but has since rallied nicely. The Steelers take a four-game winning streak into Cleveland and currently hold down the sixth and final playoff spot in the AFC. The defense has stepped up and scored in three of the past four games including last Sunday’s 17-12 victory over the L.A. Rams. It’s the first of two meetings between these AFC North rivals, with the Browns heading to Pittsburgh on December 1st (Week 13). The Steelers tied the Browns in Week 1 last season in Cleveland 21-21 when both teams’ kickers missed potential late winning field goals. Pittsburgh then dominated in a 33-18 home win in Week 8. Big Ben threw two TD passes to Antonio Brown and James Conner ran for 146 yards and two touchdowns. The home team is 3-1-1 against the spread in the past five meetings and the over has cashed in four of those.
Pittsburgh cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick returned a fumble 43 yards for a touchdown in the second quarter in what is proving to be a pretty good trade from Miami. The Rams’ only touchdown was scored by their defense and they turned it over four times against the Steelers, who’s offense struggled with 273 yards and two turnovers. The Steelers managed just 42 yards rushing on 27 carries without top back James Conner, who is expected to play Thursday. Conner ran for 281 yards and four touchdowns last season against Cleveland. Quarterback Mason Rudolph is averaging under 200 yards passing per game (190). The Steelers, who are two games behind Baltimore in the division, will be at lowly Cincinnati next week.
Cleveland kept its slim playoff hopes alive with the win over Buffalo, as Baker Mayfield had two touchdown passes, including the winner from 7 yards out to Rashard Higgins with 1:44 remaining. Mayfield didn’t throw an interception for only the second time this season and it was his first two-TD passing day of the year. Former NFL rushing champion Kareem Hunt made his Browns debut off an eight-game suspension and rushed for 30 yards while catching seven passes for 44 yards. Fellow back Nick Chubb is third in the NFL with 919 yards rushing and eclipsed 100 yards for the fourth time in six games last week. Jarvis Landry led the receiving corps with nine catches for 97 yards. Defensively, Cleveland is seventh against the pass (221.1), but 27th versus the run (134.9). The Browns will host Miami next Sunday.
Pittsburgh is on a roll right now, but I still don’t trust their offense behind Rudolph. This could be an ugly game, but I’m taking the Browns at home here, who are in desperate need of another win.
Bobby and Jay Combined 32-15 (68%) With NBA Free Picks!
Pick: Browns -2.5 (More Week 11 Free Picks)
Steelers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC North.
Steelers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.
Steelers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.
Steelers are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 11.
Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
Steelers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Steelers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Steelers are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Browns are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games.
Browns are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC North.
Browns are 21-44-2 ATS in their last 67 games overall.
Browns are 12-30-1 ATS in their last 43 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Browns are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Browns are 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 home games.
Browns are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Browns are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games in November.
Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Browns are 5-21-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Browns are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 11.
Browns are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Browns are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Under is 5-1 in Steelers last 6 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 7-2 in Steelers last 9 vs. AFC.
Under is 7-2 in Steelers last 9 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 17-5 in Steelers last 22 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 8-3 in Steelers last 11 games on grass.
Under is 38-15 in Steelers last 53 road games.
Under is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 games overall.
Under is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 vs. AFC North.
Under is 36-15 in Steelers last 51 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 4-0 in Browns last 4 Thursday games.
Over is 4-0-1 in Browns last 5 vs. AFC North.
Under is 5-1 in Browns last 6 games in Week 11.
Under is 7-2 in Browns last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 3-1-1 in Browns last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-2-1 in Browns last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 17-7-1 in Browns last 25 home games.
Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Cleveland.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Home team is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Steelers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
