Kansas City (50-47) at Detroit (45-52)
When: Monday, July 24th 2017
Where: Comerica Park, Detroit, MI
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: FSN Kansas City, FSN Detroit
Opening Odds: Detroit -153/9.5
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The surging Kansas City Royals hit the road for the first of three games with the Detroit Tigers on Monday night at Comerica Park. Brandon Moss recorded an RBI double in the bottom of the ninth inning to lift the Royals to a 6-5 win over the Chicago White Sox on Sunday, their fourth walk-off victory during a 6-4 homestand. Kansas City has won five in a row overall, one shy of matching its longest winning streak of the season, and remains just 1.5 games behind first-place Cleveland in the American League Central. Second baseman Whit Merrifield is on a terrific run, delivering a pair of solo homers Sunday to finish the homestand with a .375 average and eight RBIs. Moss is 8-for-19 with two homers and eight RBIs during a five-game hitting streak for a Royals team that leads the AL with 30 comeback wins. The Tigers split four games at Kansas City last week and followed that up by taking two of three at Minnesota – capped by Sunday’s 9-6 win. Jose Iglesias homered and drove in three runs in the victory to keep Detroit within 6.5 games of first and five back in the Wild Card. Detroit slugger Miguel Cabrera returned from a collarbone issue but went 0-for-5 with three strikeouts to drop his average to .256, the lowest it has been in nearly two months. Tigers CF Alex Presley is on fire, recording back-to-back three-hit games while batting .459 during his 10-game hitting streak.
Pitchers: Royals – Jason Hammel (4-8, 4.81 ERA) | Tigers – Justin Verlander (5-7, 4.54)
Jason Hammel will make his team-leading 20th start of the season and has gone five straight outings without a win. He turned in a solid effort last time out opposite Justin Verlander on Wednesday, allowing one run in 6.1 innings. Hammel has allowed three runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts since giving up four runs in 4.1 innings against the Tigers on May 29th. He is 2-2 with a 6.98 ERA in 11 career games (eight starts) versus Detroit.
Verlander allowed two runs and struck out eight in seven innings against Hammel his last time out, leaving him with a 2.57 ERA in three meetings with the Royals in 2017. That’s a far cry from the rest of the league as Verlander has a 4.97 against all other opponents. He has the highest walk rate of his career (4.2 per nine innings) but has issued exactly one walk in three of his last six starts. Verlander has had good success against most Royals regulars, with the notable exception of catcher Salvador Perez, who is 25-for-61 with two homers and eight doubles against him.
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I don’t care what the pitching matchup looks like. The Royals are a team to bet on right now especially when they’re a nice + underdog. They are starting to play like they did when they went to back-to-back World Series and I wouldn’t be surprised if they pass Cleveland this week atop the AL Central.
Pick: Royals +132
W/L TRENDS
| Kansas City |
- Royals are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Royals are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a win.
- Royals are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Royals are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Royals are 5-0 in their last 5 games on grass.
- Royals are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Royals are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Royals are 5-1 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Royals are 19-7 in their last 26 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Royals are 2-5 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Royals are 2-6 in Hammel’s last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Royals are 2-6 in Hammel’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Royals are 2-6 in Hammel’s last 8 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Royals are 2-6 in Hammel’s last 8 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Royals are 2-7 in Hammel’s last 9 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Royals are 1-4 in Hammel’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Royals are 1-4 in Hammel’s last 5 starts.
- Royals are 1-4 in Hammel’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Royals are 1-5 in Hammel’s last 6 road starts.
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| Detroit |
- Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Tigers are 5-1 in their last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Tigers are 8-2 in their last 10 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Tigers are 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Tigers are 5-2 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Tigers are 7-3 in their last 10 Monday games.
- Tigers are 10-21 in their last 31 games following a win.
- Tigers are 9-2 in Verlander’s last 11 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Tigers are 10-4 in Verlander’s last 14 home starts.
- Tigers are 20-8 in Verlander’s last 28 Monday starts.
- Tigers are 49-22 in Verlander’s last 71 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Tigers are 15-7 in Verlander’s last 22 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Tigers are 2-5 in Verlander’s last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Tigers are 1-4 in Verlander’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Tigers are 1-4 in Verlander’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Tigers are 1-4 in Verlander’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Tigers are 1-4 in Verlander’s last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Tigers are 1-5 in Verlander’s last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Tigers are 0-4 in Verlander’s last 4 starts.
- Tigers are 0-4 in Verlander’s last 4 starts on grass.
|
OU TRENDS
| Kansas City |
- Under is 7-2 in Royals last 9 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Royals last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 12-5-2 in Royals last 19 road games.
- Over is 7-3 in Royals last 10 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 9-4-2 in Royals last 15 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 9-4 in Royals last 13 games following a win.
- Over is 9-4 in Royals last 13 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 42-20-3 in Royals last 65 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-1 in Hammel’s last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-1 in Hammel’s last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Hammel’s last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
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| Detroit |
- Over is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games following a win.
- Over is 7-2 in Tigers last 9 overall.
- Over is 7-2 in Tigers last 9 on grass.
- Under is 7-2-1 in Tigers last 10 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 11-4 in Tigers last 15 Monday games.
- Over is 35-15-1 in Tigers last 51 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Over is 33-15-3 in Tigers last 51 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 4-1 in Verlander’s last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 4-1 in Verlander’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Verlander’s last 5 starts overall.
- Under is 17-5-1 in Verlander’s last 23 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 16-6-2 in Verlander’s last 24 home starts.
- Over is 5-2 in Verlander’s last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Verlander’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-2 in Verlander’s last 7 starts vs. American League Central.
- Under is 14-6 in Verlander’s last 20 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 23-10-3 in Verlander’s last 36 Monday starts.
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HEAD TO HEAD
- Under is 4-0-1 in Verlander’s last 5 starts vs. Royals.
- Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Detroit.
- Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Verlander’s last 5 home starts vs. Royals.
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