Cincinnati (30-41) at Washington (43-29)
When: Friday, June 23rd 2017
Where: Nationals Park, Washington, DC
Time: 7:05 ET | TV: FSN Ohio, MASN
Opening Odds: Washington -250/9
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The Washington Nationals, who had the best record in the National League for a while and the best offense in the majors, have had a hard time scoring consistently, but still own a comfortable 9.5 game lead in the East over Atlanta. Washington will open a three-game weekend set against the worst pitching staff in MLB – the Cincinnati Reds. Since climbing to a season-high 17 games over .500 with a June 8th win over Baltimore, Washington has faced four teams with losing records and pitching staffs that rank in the bottom half of the majors in ERA. Over that 13-game stretch, the Nationals have either scored three runs or fewer (six times) or at least seven (seven times). That lack of consistency has resulted in just a 5-0 mark during that stretch. Nationals 1B Ryan Zimmerman, who did not play in Wednesday’s series finale at Miami, remains one home run shy of passing Vladimir Guerrero (234) for first place in franchise history. Winning has not been too familiar with Cincinnati lately, losing 11 of 12 overall to fall a season-worst 11 games below .500. Cincinnati has allowed an average of six runs during its slide and ranks last in the majors in ERA (5.08) overall. The Reds have two players (Joey Votto and Scott Schebler) with 20 homers after 71 games for the first time since Tony Perez (26) Johnny Bench (25) in 1970.
Pitchers: Reds – Luis Castillo (NR) | Nationals – Stephen Strasburg (8-2, 3.28 ERA)
Luis Castillo, who was the most highly regarded of three prospects Cincinnati acquired in the Dan Straily trade with Miami this winter, is expected to make his big-league debut Friday. Castillo was superb at Double-A Pensacola, striking out 81 over 80.1 innings while walking only 13. He is 21-22 with a 2.66 ERA in 169 appearances (54 starts) over his minor-league career and has allowed only five homers and yielded two runs or fewer in 12 of his 14 outings this season.
Stephen Strasburg is coming off a road win on Saturday against the New York Mets, allowing two runs on six hits while striking out five across 5.1 innings. Strasburg has had a sub-par month of June (2-1, 4.24 ERA) after a stellar May (4-0, 2.78) and struggled at home (2-1, 4.15) much more than on the road (6-1, 2.61). Votto is 3-for-11 with two homers against Strasburg, who is 2-1 with a 4.35 ERA in six starts versus the Reds.
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Castillo could be what the Reds need in their pitching staff. The highly-regarded prospect should fare well tonight as the Nationals have never seen him. I’m confident Strasburg will dominate the Reds tonight and I can see this game going under the total. The under is 8-3-1 in Washington’s last 12 home games.
Pick: Under 9 +100
W/L TRENDS
| Cincinnati |
- Reds are 23-48 in their last 71 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Reds are 17-36 in their last 53 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Reds are 18-44 in their last 62 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Reds are 4-10 in their last 14 Friday games.
- Reds are 19-52 in their last 71 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Reds are 6-22 in their last 28 road games.
- Reds are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Reds are 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Reds are 1-7 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Reds are 1-8 in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Reds are 1-9 in their last 10 games following a loss.
- Reds are 1-11 in their last 12 overall.
- Reds are 0-9 in their last 9 games on grass.
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| Washington |
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 games following an off day.
- Nationals are 7-3 in their last 10 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Nationals are 7-3 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series.
- Nationals are 7-3 in their last 10 Friday games.
- Nationals are 13-6 in their last 19 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Nationals are 35-17 in their last 52 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Nationals are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
- Nationals are 1-5 in their last 6 home games.
- Nationals are 1-6 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Nationals are 4-0 in Strasburg’s last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
- Nationals are 5-0 in Strasburg’s last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Nationals are 7-1 in Strasburg’s last 8 Friday starts.
- Nationals are 11-2 in Strasburg’s last 13 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Nationals are 40-11 in Strasburg’s last 51 starts.
- Nationals are 40-11 in Strasburg’s last 51 starts on grass.
- Nationals are 24-7 in Strasburg’s last 31 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Nationals are 20-8 in Strasburg’s last 28 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Nationals are 10-4 in Strasburg’s last 14 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Nationals are 35-16 in Strasburg’s last 51 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Nationals are 37-17 in Strasburg’s last 54 home starts.
- Nationals are 37-18 in Strasburg’s last 55 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
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OU TRENDS
| Cincinnati |
- Over is 4-0 in Reds last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in Reds last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Reds last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 9-1-2 in Reds last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Reds last 9 road games.
- Over is 5-1 in Reds last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Reds last 5 games following an off day.
- Over is 4-1 in Reds last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 20-6 in Reds last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-2-1 in Reds last 9 on grass.
- Over is 21-7-2 in Reds last 30 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 34-15-3 in Reds last 52 games following a loss.
- Over is 42-19-6 in Reds last 67 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 36-17-2 in Reds last 55 overall.
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| Washington |
- Over is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 games following an off day.
- Over is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 games following a loss.
- Over is 11-2 in Nationals last 13 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Over is 8-2 in Nationals last 10 overall.
- Over is 8-2 in Nationals last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 12-3-1 in Nationals last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
- Over is 8-2 in Nationals last 10 on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 6-2 in Nationals last 8 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-2 in Nationals last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 8-3-1 in Nationals last 12 home games.
- Under is 34-13-4 in Nationals last 51 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 5-2 in Nationals last 7 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 12-5-2 in Nationals last 19 Friday games.
- Under is 7-3-1 in Nationals last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-1 in Strasburg’s last 7 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 8-2-1 in Strasburg’s last 11 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 8-3 in Strasburg’s last 11 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 34-15-4 in Strasburg’s last 53 home starts.
- Over is 9-4 in Strasburg’s last 13 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 13-6-1 in Strasburg’s last 20 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
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HEAD TO HEAD
- Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings.
- Over is 5-1 in Strasburg’s last 6 starts vs. Reds.
- Reds are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Washington.
- Reds are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.
- Nationals are 1-4 in Strasburg’s last 5 starts vs. Reds.
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