Boston (47-35) at Texas (40-42)
When: Monday, July 3rd 2017
Where: Globe Life Park, Arlington, TX
Time: 8:05 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Texas -109/10.5
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The Boston Red Sox look to extend their perfect road trip to 4-0 when they open a three-game set with the Texas Rangers on Monday night at Globe Life Park. The Sox scored 29 runs in a three-game sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays over the weekend as Mookie Betts drove in eight runs in yesterday’s 15-1 thrashing. Betts finished second in the MVP voting last season but got off to a bit of a sluggish start this season before turning it on of late and became the first leadoff hitter in franchise history to produce eight RBIs in a game. Betts is 4-for-9 with a pair of RBIs in his career against Rangers left-hander Martin Perez, who gets the start on Monday. The victory extended Boston’s lead over the New York Yankees to three games in the American League East standings as they pass the midway point of the season. Texas will look to rebound from a 4-6 road trip that saw them drop four of the last five including yesterday’s 6-5 loss at the Chicago White Sox. The Rangers are 15 games behind the Houston Astros in the West, but they can start focusing on the Wild Card, where they are just two back of Tampa Bay for the second slot. Texas SS Elvis Andrus has multiple hits in six of the last 10 games to lift his batting average to .302. Texas will finish-up the first half of the season with six in a row at home with the LA Angels coming in after Boston.
Pitchers: Red Sox – Rick Porcello (4-10, 5.06 ERA) | Rangers – Martin Perez (4-6, 4.70)
Rick Porcello is still looking to regain his Cy Young form as he’s suffered through a tough season thus far. He allowed four runs and six hits in six innings to suffer a loss against Minnesota on Wednesday – the sixth time in the last nine starts that he surrendered at least four earned runs. He is allowing opponents to hit a scorching .312 against him while surrendering the most hits (138) in the majors. Porcello allowed 11 hits and five runs – four earned – in 6.2 innings against Texas on May 23rd but received enough support to come away with a win.
Perez will come of the 10-day disabled from a fractured tip of his right thumb to make his first start since June 22nd. Perez, like Porcello, is allowing opposing batters to hit for a high average (.315), though he received enough support to come away with the win in his last two outings. Perez pitched well at Boston on May 24th, but received a no-decision, allowing three runs and six hits in 6.1 innings of work.
Fantasy Impact: Adrian Beltre is 10-for-24 against Porcello, while Andrus is 4-for-26. Xander Bogaerts and Dustin Pedroia are a combined 5-for-29 against Perez.
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I like there to be a lot of runs in this one, but the total is set at 11 and that’s a little high for me to take. The Red Sox are on a roll right now and will get the better of Perez in this one.
Pick: Red Sox -117
W/L TRENDS
| Boston |
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Red Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
- Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a win.
- Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Red Sox are 5-2 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 9-4 in their last 13 vs. American League West.
- Red Sox are 11-5 in their last 16 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Red Sox are 7-1 in Porcello’s last 8 Monday starts.
- Red Sox are 4-1 in Porcello’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 7-3 in Porcello’s last 10 starts vs. American League West.
- Red Sox are 9-4 in Porcello’s last 13 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Red Sox are 11-5 in Porcello’s last 16 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Red Sox are 2-5 in Porcello’s last 7 starts.
- Red Sox are 2-5 in Porcello’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Red Sox are 1-5 in Porcello’s last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Red Sox are 0-4 in Porcello’s last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 0-7 in Porcello’s last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
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| Texas |
- Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Rangers are 8-3 in their last 11 games following a loss.
- Rangers are 5-2 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Rangers are 3-7 in their last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Rangers are 6-15 in their last 21 vs. American League East.
- Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
- Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 games on grass.
- Rangers are 1-6 in their last 7 Monday games.
- Rangers are 1-8 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Rangers are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rangers are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Rangers are 1-4 in Perez’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rangers are 1-4 in Perez’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rangers are 1-4 in Perez’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Rangers are 1-5 in Perez’s last 6 starts vs. American League East.
- Rangers are 0-4 in Perez’s last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
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OU TRENDS
| Boston |
- Under is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 on grass.
- Under is 13-3-1 in Red Sox last 17 Monday games.
- Over is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 road games.
- Under is 8-2 in Red Sox last 10 vs. American League West.
- Over is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 10-3-2 in Red Sox last 15 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 22-10 in Red Sox last 32 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Porcello’s last 4 Monday starts.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Porcello’s last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0 in Porcello’s last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Porcello’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Under is 5-1 in Porcello’s last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Porcello’s last 7 starts overall.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Porcello’s last 6 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Porcello’s last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
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| Texas |
- Under is 5-1 in Rangers last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 11-3 in Rangers last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 12-4-1 in Rangers last 17 home games.
- Under is 8-3 in Rangers last 11 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Rangers last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 36-15-4 in Rangers last 55 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 7-3 in Rangers last 10 vs. American League East.
- Over is 7-3-1 in Rangers last 11 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in Perez’s last 5 starts with 10 or more days of rest.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Perez’s last 6 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-1 in Perez’s last 5 home starts.
- Under is 9-3 in Perez’s last 12 Monday starts.
- Under is 21-7 in Perez’s last 28 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 5-2 in Perez’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-2 in Perez’s last 7 starts overall.
- Under is 29-14-1 in Perez’s last 44 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
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HEAD TO HEAD
- Red Sox are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
- Over is 4-1 in Perez’s last 5 starts vs. Red Sox.
- Under is 12-4-1 in the last 17 meetings in Texas.
- Red Sox are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Texas.
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