Boston (1-1) at Houston (1-1)
When: Tuesday, October 16th 2018
Where: Minute Maid Park,
Houston, Texas
Time: 5:09 ET | TV: TBS
Opening Odds: Houston -135/8.5
The Houston Astros continued their major league record in Game 2 with a home run in 14 consecutive contests, but it wasn’t enough to overcome the Red Sox lineup, as Boston powered their way to a 7-5 victory to even their best-of-seven ALCS at a game apiece. The series now shifts to Houston’s Minute Maid Park for Game 3 as Dallas Keuchel opposes Nathan Eovaldi on Tuesday afternoon. The Red Sox survived another shaky start from David Price on Sunday, winning for the first time when the lefty starts. Now they must take at least one of these games in Houston to steal homefield advantage back. Mookie Betts scored a pair of runs and drove in another in Sunday’s triumph as Boston’s offense, which led the majors in batting average and runs scored during the regular season, woke up after a quiet Game 1. Jackie Bradley, Jr’s three-run double in the third inning gave Boston the lead for good and the bullpen did the rest. The news wasn’t all great for Boston on Sunday, as ace Chris Sale was hospitalized because of a stomach ailment and did not travel with the team but is expected to make his Game 5 start. Houston’s George Springer went 2-for-5 in Game 2 to extend his postseason hitting streak to a franchise-record 11 straight games.
Pitchers: Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi (1-0, 1.29 ERA) | Astros – Dallas Keuchel (0-0, 3.60)
With the way managers are using their bullpens nowadays in the postseason, its rare to see a quality start from a pitcher, but that’s exactly what Boston got out of Eovaldi in Game 3 of the AL Division Series versus the Yankee. Eovaldi allowed one run and five hits over seven innings while striking out five and not walking a batter. He started at Houston as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays on June 20th and was knocked around for four runs on seven hits – four solo homers – in six innings to suffer the loss.
Keuchel came away with a no-decision in Game 3 of the ALDS against Cleveland when he surrendered two runs and four hits in five innings in a game the Astros went onto win 11-3. The lefty won his lone start against Boston in the 2017 ALDS but was not sharp against the Red Sox last month, allowing five runs and nine hits in six innings. Keuchel posted a 4-6 record with a 3.90 ERA in 16 home starts during the regular season.
I still think this is Houston’s series to lose. The crowd at Minute Maid is going to be jacked and the Astros really feed off that. I’m not overly confident in either pitcher in this matchup, but I trust Keuchel a bit more here.
Pick: Astros -132
BETTING TRENDS:
- Red Sox are 46-13 in their last 59 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Red Sox are 9-3 in their last 12 vs. American League West.
- Red Sox are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Red Sox are 41-15 in their last 56 Tuesday games.
- Red Sox are 5-2 in their last 7 League Championship games.
- Red Sox are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Red Sox are 36-15 in their last 51 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 59-25 in their last 84 games on grass.
- Red Sox are 42-18 in their last 60 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 42-18 in their last 60 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 38-17 in their last 55 games following a win.
- Red Sox are 42-19 in their last 61 games following an off day.
- Red Sox are 61-29 in their last 90 overall.
- Red Sox are 45-22 in their last 67 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 2-5 in Eovaldi’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 League Championship home games.
- Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 games following an off day.
- Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 Tuesday games.
- Astros are 10-1 in their last 11 games following a loss.
- Astros are 7-1 in their last 8 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Astros are 5-1 in their last 6 playoff games.
- Astros are 10-2 in their last 12 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Astros are 13-3 in their last 16 home games.
- Astros are 7-2 in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Astros are 19-7 in their last 26 playoff home games.
- Astros are 49-19 in their last 68 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Astros are 68-30 in their last 98 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Astros are 35-16 in their last 51 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Astros are 87-40 in their last 127 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Astros are 67-31 in their last 98 games on grass.
- Astros are 40-19 in their last 59 overall.
- Astros are 68-33 in their last 101 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Astros are 4-0 in Keuchel’s last 4 starts with 7 or more days of rest.
- Astros are 4-0 in Keuchel’s last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Astros are 21-8 in Keuchel’s last 29 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Astros are 37-15 in Keuchel’s last 52 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Astros are 13-6 in Keuchel’s last 19 starts.
- Astros are 2-5 in Keuchel’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Astros are 1-6 in Keuchel’s last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Red Sox last 4 Tuesday games.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Red Sox last 5 League Championship games.
- Over is 13-3-1 in Red Sox last 17 on grass.
- Over is 13-3-1 in Red Sox last 17 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 vs. American League West.
- Over is 11-3 in Red Sox last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 7-2-1 in Red Sox last 10 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 20-6-2 in Red Sox last 28 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-2-1 in Red Sox last 9 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Red Sox last 5 League Championship road games.
- Over is 6-2 in Red Sox last 8 games following a win.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Red Sox last 5 during game 6 of a series.
- Over is 18-7-3 in Red Sox last 28 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Red Sox last 7 road games.
- Under is 5-2-2 in Red Sox last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 5-2 in Red Sox last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 7-3 in Red Sox last 10 playoff games.
- Over is 34-16-2 in Red Sox last 52 games following an off day.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Eovaldi’s last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0-2 in Eovaldi’s last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Eovaldi’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Eovaldi’s last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Eovaldi’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 6-2-2 in Eovaldi’s last 10 starts overall.
- Over is 5-2 in Eovaldi’s last 7 road starts.
- Over is 7-0 in Astros last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 11-1-2 in Astros last 14 Tuesday games.
- Over is 13-2-1 in Astros last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 games following an off day.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Astros last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 on grass.
- Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Astros last 6 home games.
- Under is 8-2 in Astros last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 playoff games.
- Under is 7-2 in Astros last 9 vs. American League East.
- Over is 6-2 in Astros last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 6-2 in Astros last 8 League Championship home games.
- Over is 5-2 in Astros last 7 League Championship games.
- Under is 4-1 in Keuchel’s last 5 Tuesday starts.
- Over is 4-1 in Keuchel’s last 5 starts with 7 or more days of rest.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Keuchel’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 22-8-1 in Keuchel’s last 31 starts vs. American League East.
- Under is 18-7-4 in Keuchel’s last 29 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Houston.
- Over is 35-16-1 in the last 52 meetings.
