With the NFL preseason underway, fans aren’t just tuning in to scout rookies; they’re researching and betting heavily. More than any other position, quarterback depth is moving the lines.
While starters sit, it’s the backups and third-stringers who decide games and determine which teams cover spreads.
For sharp bettors, understanding quarterback rotations is critical. The preseason doesn’t favor the flashiest rosters. It rewards experience, continuity, and reps. This year, the disparity between the league’s best and worst rotations is striking.
Cleveland’s Logjam Raises Red Flags
No team enters the preseason with more uncertainty under center than the Browns. Their quarterback room includes 40-year-old Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, and two rookies, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders. None were on the roster last year.
Ralph Michaels, a respected handicapper, didn’t hold back. “Four quarterbacks, no one was on the team last year, and two rookies,” he said. Oddsmaker Ed Salmons narrowed the true battle down to three, dismissing Sanders from the equation.
In preseason betting, chemistry and familiarity often separate winners from losers. Cleveland has neither, yet people still bet on preseason games hoping to spot an edge.
Best QB Rooms for Preseason Value
Some teams are positioned to thrive with streamlined depth charts and experienced backups. Michaels spotlighted four that bettors should watch closely: the Cardinals, Bills, Lions, and Commanders.
Arizona Cardinals: With Kyler Murray likely resting, the team turns to Jacoby Brissett and Clayton Tune. Brissett’s 53 career starts give Arizona a steady hand, and Tune enters his third year in the system. Fewer quarterbacks mean more meaningful reps, which translates to rhythm and execution.
Buffalo Bills: Buffalo returns all four quarterbacks from last preseason, Josh Allen, Mitchell Trubisky, Mike White, and Shane Buechele. That continuity offers a significant edge. Everyone knows the offense and coaching expectations, allowing for clean, productive drives regardless of who’s under center.
Detroit Lions: Jared Goff won’t play much, but Hendon Hooker and Kyle Allen provide a strong one-two punch. Hooker enters year two, and Allen has 19 career starts. He’ll likely play deep into games against fringe defenders, giving Detroit a real edge.
Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, Marcus Mariota, and Sam Hartman all return from last year. The newcomer is Josh Johnson, a veteran of 45 career games. That mix of familiarity and experience makes Washington a dangerous team to fade.
Worst Rotations Signal Risk
On the other end of the spectrum, several teams are rolling out unproven or mismatched groups. Along with Cleveland, the Cowboys, Giants, and Seahawks made Michaels’ bottom four.
Dallas Cowboys: With Dak Prescott sitting, the reps fall to Joe Milton and Will Grier. Combined, they have just three career appearances and two starts. That’s a liability, especially in close preseason matchups where timing matters.
New York Giants: Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston likely won’t see much action. That puts pressure on rookie Jaxson Dart and Tommy DeVito. Dart could be forced into early reps against first-string defenders—a tough ask for any rookie quarterback.
Seattle Seahawks: Sam Darnold’s playing time is uncertain. That leaves Drew Lock and rookie Jalen Milroe to carry the offense. Lock has starting experience but has been inconsistent, and Milroe is still adapting to the pro game.
Raiders Offer Stability, Not Flash
Las Vegas made headlines trading for Geno Smith and signing him to a two-year, $75 million extension. But he’s unlikely to play much this preseason. Instead, the focus shifts to Aidan O’Connell and rookie Cam Miller.
O’Connell has 17 career starts and a solid grasp of the system. He gives the Raiders an edge against second-team defenses. Miller, a sixth-round pick, will need to learn quickly, but his reps won’t come against elite competition.
Trends to Watch
Betting on preseason games is about more than talent spotting. It’s about depth, experience, and how many quarterbacks take the field. Teams with just three QBs often perform better. Fewer arms mean more reps per player and a stronger in-game rhythm.
The Cardinals and Lions benefit from this. With just three quarterbacks each, Brissett and Allen will see extended action, while their defenses face third-string opposition. That combination creates opportunities for bettors, especially when aligned with current NFL betting data and trends.
Continuity also matters. The Bills, for example, return their entire quarterback group. That’s rare. In August football, where missed assignments and miscommunication are common, familiarity is gold.
High-Variance Rooms
Some teams carry potential but come with risk. The Jets feature Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor, both capable of strong preseason performances. But it’s Adrian Martinez and Brady Cook (likely to take late-game snaps), who’ll decide the outcomes. Their readiness is unclear.
Tampa Bay is in a similar spot. Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask headline, but rookie Michael Pratt might log the most playing time. If he falters, the Bucs’ offense could stall.
Chicago will likely protect top pick Caleb Williams. That puts pressure on Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum. Both have experience, but how reps are divided will matter more than name recognition.
Know Who Finishes, Not Just Who Starts
Many fans focus on which quarterbacks start games. In the preseason, that matters less than who finishes. The late third and fourth quarters are where betting outcomes are often decided.
A strong closer—especially one with NFL snaps—can carve up third-string defenses. Conversely, a rookie thrown into the deep end might struggle to keep drives alive. That’s why betting the preseason demands an understanding of depth charts beyond the top line.
Every Preseason Snap Counts
Every preseason snap counts for coaches evaluating rosters, for quarterbacks chasing roster spots, and for bettors searching for value. Teams with experienced, consistent quarterback rotations hold the edge.
The NFL’s August games aren’t meaningless. They’re shaped by quarterbacks who might never start in September but matter plenty in the summer. Betting wisely means tracking who’s getting those reps and how prepared they are to use them.
*The information provided reflects analysis and data available as of 2025/08/05 preseason and is subject to change.
