Philadelphia (12-9) at NY Mets (11-10)
When: Monday, April 22nd, 2019
Where: Citi Field,
New York, NY
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: New York -105/8
For the second time in a week, NL East-rivals the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets will meet in a three-game series with first place on the line in Monday’s opener. Philadelphia took two of three at home against the Mets last week then opened up their seven-game road trip by losing three of four at Colorado, but still have a one-game lead over both New York and Atlanta heading into the week. The Phillies hope to get to Mets’ starter Steven Matz like they did last Tuesday when they rocked the lefty for eight runs and eight hits before recording an out. Offseason acquisition Bryce Harper had two hits and scored four times in that series against New York and has now reached base safely in all 21 games to start the season. The Phillies will counter with Jake Arrieta against a Mets team that has dropped six of their last eight after losing two of three over the weekend in St. Louis. New York will begin a long 10-game homestand that will also see Milwaukee and Cincinnati come to Citi Field, where the Mets are 2-3 on the season. The Mets’ pitching staff owns a 5.57 ERA on the season and an MLB-worst 1.55 WHIP heading into Monday’s action. New York is expected to activate 3B Todd Frazier (oblique) from the injured list prior to the series opener.
Pitchers: Phillies – Jake Arrieta (3-1, 2.25 ERA) | Mets – Steven Matz (1-1, 4.96)
Arrieta has recorded a quality start in all four of his outings in 2019 and the Phillies are 3-1 in those contests including a 3-2 win over the Mets last week when the righty had his best turn to date. Arrieta pitched into the ninth inning and allowed two runs and six hits, while throwing 105 pitches and has worked at least seven innings in three straight starts. He is 3-3 with a 2.33 ERA in 11 career starts versus New York.
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Matz had a 2.79 ERA prior to getting pummeled last week in Philadelphia after he helped the Mets win his previous three starts, allowing five runs on 12 hits while striking out 19 over 16.1 innings. The lefty has now seen all four NL East opponents this season and will bring his career 0-3 mark and 5.96 ERA against the Phillies into Monday’s contest. J.T. Realmuto, who is 6-for-14 with one homer, seven RBIs and four runs scored versus the Mets this season, is 4-for-10 lifetime against Matz.
Matz won’t have an outing like he did against the Phillies last week, but I do think that outing will be in the back of his mind. He’s never beaten the Phillies and the Mets are 1-5 when he starts against them. Arrieta has been the best Phillies starter so far this season and I think he keeps that momentum going Monday.
Bobby Babowski has 2 free predictions on his Free MLB Picks page for Monday. He is 39-29 on the season after a 4-1 run.
Pick: Phillies +100
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BETTING TRENDS:
Phillies are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Phillies are 6-2 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
Phillies are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Phillies are 5-2 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
Phillies are 11-5 in their last 16 vs. National League East.
Phillies are 21-45 in their last 66 Monday games.
Phillies are 30-65 in their last 95 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Phillies are 8-21 in their last 29 road games.
Phillies are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Phillies are 5-2 in Arrieta’s last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
Phillies are 2-5 in Arrieta’s last 7 road starts.
Phillies are 1-5 in Arrieta’s last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 Monday games.
Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Mets are 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Mets are 5-2 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
Mets are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Mets are 2-5 in their last 7 overall.
Mets are 2-5 in their last 7 games on grass.
Mets are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. National League East.
Mets are 0-7 in their last 7 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Mets are 8-0 in Matz’s last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Mets are 5-1 in Matz’s last 6 starts vs. National League East.
Mets are 5-1 in Matz’s last 6 starts.
Mets are 5-1 in Matz’s last 6 starts on grass.
Mets are 2-5 in Matz’s last 7 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance.
Mets are 2-10 in Matz’s last 12 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 10-2 in Phillies last 12 during game 1 of a series.
Over is 6-2 in Phillies last 8 vs. National League East.
Under is 6-2-1 in Phillies last 9 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Over is 5-2-1 in Phillies last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Over is 7-3-1 in Phillies last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 4-0 in Arrieta’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-0 in Arrieta’s last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-1 in Arrieta’s last 6 starts on grass.
Under is 5-1 in Arrieta’s last 6 starts overall.
Under is 8-2 in Arrieta’s last 10 starts with 4 days of rest.
Under is 4-1 in Arrieta’s last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Under is 7-3 in Arrieta’s last 10 road starts.
Over is 3-0-1 in Mets last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 home games.
Over is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 5-1-1 in Mets last 7 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Over is 5-1-1 in Mets last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 14-3-2 in Mets last 19 overall.
Over is 14-3-2 in Mets last 19 on grass.
Over is 4-1 in Mets last 5 Monday games.
Over is 4-1 in Mets last 5 vs. National League East.
Over is 4-1-1 in Mets last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 6-2-1 in Mets last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 3-0-1 in Matz’s last 4 starts on grass.
Over is 4-0-2 in Matz’s last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
Over is 3-0-1 in Matz’s last 4 starts overall.
Over is 3-0-1 in Matz’s last 4 starts vs. National League East.
Under is 11-1-1 in Matz’s last 13 starts with 5 days of rest.
Over is 5-1-2 in Matz’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 3-1-1 in Matz’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-2 in Matz’s last 7 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance.
Under is 20-8 in Matz’s last 28 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Phillies are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Over is 48-23-3 in the last 74 meetings in New York.
Phillies are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings in New York.
Mets are 0-4 in Matz’s last 4 starts vs. Phillies.
