Philadelphia (60-57) at San Francisco (58-60)
When: Sunday, August 11th, 2019
Where: Oracle Park,
San Francisco, CA
Time: 7:05 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Philadelphia -115/9
Two teams right in the thick of the National League Wild Card race will be featured this week on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball as the Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants conclude their four-game weekend series at Oracle Park. The Phillies exploded for nine runs in Friday’s victory but that has been sandwiched by 5-0 and 3-1 losses thanks to strong outings by Madison Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija. Kevin Pillar provided the offense on Saturday to back eight strong innings by Samardzija as the Giants won for just the third time in their last 10 games. San Francisco went 19-6 in July but are averaging just 3.6 runs a game over their last 10, while the Phillies have scored one run or less in three of their last four games. Pillar and Evan Longoria both homered in Saturday’s 3-1 victory, giving Pillar 13 hits in his last 36 at-bats after going deep in back-to-back games. Bryce Harper, who has led off the last two games, smashed two homers on Friday but went 0-for-4 on Saturday. Corey Dickerson provided the Phillies only run Saturday with his fifth homer in his last eight games and is 12-for-29 with 13 RBI over that stretch.
Pitchers: Phillies – Jake Arrieta (8-8, 4.41 ERA) | Giants – Conner Menez (0-1, 5.73)
Jake Arrieta hasn’t won a game since beating Miami on June 30th but some of that is the lack of offensive support. The veteran right has allowed two runs or less in four of his last six starts including an 8-4 loss at Arizona Tuesday after he allowed two runs on five hits over five innings in a no-decision. Arrieta is 5-3 with a 2.57 ERA in nine career starts versus San Francisco.
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Connor Menez will make his third career start and will be searching for his first win after a no-decision in his debut and a 5-3 loss to Washington on Tuesday. The 24-year-old allowed five runs on six hits over six innings to the Nationals and has served-up two home runs in each of his two starts. Menez was 2-0 with a 4.06 ERA in nine games (eight starts) across 44.1 innings for Triple-A Sacramento prior to his call-up.
The Phillies could do nothing against Bumgarner and Samardzija, but had success against a young Tyler Beede on Friday. I can see the offense having success against the rookie Menez on Sunday, while Arrieta shuts down the struggling Giants lineup.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Sunday. He is 106-75 +1923 units on the season after a 7-2 run!
Pick: Phillies -105
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BETTING TRENDS:
Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 Sunday games.
Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 4 of a series.
Phillies are 6-2 in their last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Phillies are 9-3 in their last 12 games following a loss.
Phillies are 5-2 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Phillies are 6-14 in their last 20 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 road games.
Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. National League West.
Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 games on grass.
Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Phillies are 5-1 in Arrieta’s last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.
Phillies are 4-1 in Arrieta’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Phillies are 4-1 in Arrieta’s last 5 Sunday starts.
Phillies are 2-5 in Arrieta’s last 7 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Phillies are 1-6 in Arrieta’s last 7 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 Sunday games.
Giants are 12-5 in their last 17 during game 4 of a series.
Giants are 9-4 in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Giants are 2-5 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Giants are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. National League East.
Giants are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Giants are 2-5 in their last 7 overall.
Giants are 2-5 in their last 7 games on grass.
Giants are 2-5 in their last 7 home games.
Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Giants are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win.
Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 19-5-4 in Phillies last 28 during game 4 of a series.
Under is 7-2 in Phillies last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 9-3 in Phillies last 12 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 6-2 in Phillies last 8 Sunday games.
Under is 6-2 in Phillies last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 8-3 in Phillies last 11 road games.
Over is 14-6 in Phillies last 20 games following a loss.
Over is 4-0-1 in Arrieta’s last 5 starts vs. National League West.
Over is 4-1 in Arrieta’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 6-2 in Arrieta’s last 8 starts on grass.
Over is 6-2 in Arrieta’s last 8 starts overall.
Under is 9-4 in Arrieta’s last 13 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 6-0 in Giants last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 9-1-1 in Giants last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 6-1 in Giants last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 6-1 in Giants last 7 home games.
Under is 5-1 in Giants last 6 vs. National League East.
Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 during game 4 of a series.
Under is 5-1 in Giants last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 12-3-2 in Giants last 17 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Under is 15-5-2 in Giants last 22 overall.
Under is 15-5-2 in Giants last 22 on grass.
Over is 3-1-1 in Giants last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 7-3-1 in Giants last 11 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in San Francisco.
Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
Phillies are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in San Francisco.
