Chicago Cubs (63-54) at Cincinnati (56-59)
When: Sunday, August 11th, 2019
Where: Great American Ball Park,
Cincinnati, Ohio
Time: 1:10 ET | TV: FS Ohio,
NBCS Chicago
Opening Odds: Cincinnati -135/9
The Cincinnati Reds are slowly playing themselves back into the wild card race after stumbling around the All-Star Break and have been using the long ball this weekend to do so. The Reds look to make it three straight over the visiting Chicago Cubs in Sunday’s series finale behind ace Luis Castillo against Chicago veteran lefty Jon Lester. Cincinnati outfielder Aristides Aquino has been out of this world recently, smashing a homer in each of the first two games of the series, then going off for three more in Saturday’s 10-1 rout to give him six dingers and nine RBI over his last four games. Cincinnati has won five of its last six games and 10 of 14 overall to get within 4.5 games of a wild-card spot. Chicago, who scored 12 runs on 19 hits in Thursday’s series opener, has three runs and 12 hits total in the last two games and saw its lead in the NL Central cut to 1.5 games. The Cubs need to figure out how to win on the road or they’ll have a tough time if they even make the postseason. Saturday’s setback dropped them to 22-35 away from Wrigley.
Pitchers: Cubs – Jon Lester (9-8, 4.39 ERA) | Reds – Luis Castillo (11-4, 2.63)
Lester has allowed three runs or more in six of his last seven starts and the last two were really ugly. The lefty surrendered 16 runs – 14 earned – over nine innings of work in losses to St. Louis and Oakland after tossing seven scoreless innings at Milwaukee on July 27th. Lester is 7-2 lifetime against the Reds including a loss on June 30th in which he allowed four runs – three earned – over 5.2 innings.
10 CENT MLB LINES & 1% CASH BACK
The Reds are 5-1 in Castillo’s last six starts with the last five all coming at home where he is 7-3 with a 2.22 ERA. He’s coming off an impressive outing against the Los Angeles Angels when he allowed two runs and three hits over seven innings while striking out 13. Castillo is 4-2 with a 3.49 ERA in nine career starts against the Cubs including two wins this season.
The Cubs have been a completely different team on the road and they’ve run into a hot Reds team right now. Lester has a 4.81 ERA away from home and the Cubs are just 3-7 in those games. Look for Castillo to spin a game against the Cubbies.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Sunday. He is 106-75 +1923 units on the season after a 7-2 run!
Pick: Reds -128
10 CENT MLB LINES & 1% CASH BACK
BETTING TRENDS:
Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a loss.
Cubs are 37-17 in their last 55 during game 4 of a series.
Cubs are 3-7 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Cubs are 3-7 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Cubs are 9-22 in their last 31 road games.
Cubs are 2-7 in their last 9 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Cubs are 43-10 in Lester’s last 53 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Cubs are 6-2 in Lester’s last 8 Sunday starts.
Cubs are 19-7 in Lester’s last 26 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Cubs are 13-5 in Lester’s last 18 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Cubs are 18-7 in Lester’s last 25 starts vs. National League Central.
Cubs are 35-17 in Lester’s last 52 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Cubs are 2-5 in Lester’s last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
Cubs are 2-5 in Lester’s last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Cubs are 1-6 in Lester’s last 7 road starts.
Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Reds are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
Reds are 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass.
Reds are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Reds are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Reds are 8-3 in their last 11 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Reds are 6-15 in their last 21 Sunday games.
Reds are 3-10 in their last 13 during game 4 of a series.
Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Reds are 4-0 in Castillo’s last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Reds are 4-0 in Castillo’s last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
Reds are 5-1 in Castillo’s last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Reds are 5-1 in Castillo’s last 6 starts during game 4 of a series.
Reds are 5-1 in Castillo’s last 6 starts.
Reds are 5-1 in Castillo’s last 6 starts on grass.
Reds are 4-1 in Castillo’s last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Reds are 4-1 in Castillo’s last 5 home starts.
Reds are 9-4 in Castillo’s last 13 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 5-1-1 in Cubs last 7 overall.
Over is 5-1-1 in Cubs last 7 on grass.
Under is 5-1-1 in Cubs last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Under is 8-2-1 in Cubs last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 4-1-1 in Cubs last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 7-2 in Cubs last 9 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 3-1-1 in Cubs last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 11-4 in Cubs last 15 vs. National League Central.
Under is 8-3 in Cubs last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 7-3 in Cubs last 10 road games.
Over is 6-1 in Lester’s last 7 Sunday starts.
Over is 5-1-1 in Lester’s last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Lester’s last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 19-6-2 in Lester’s last 27 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 3-1-1 in Lester’s last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 13-5 in Lester’s last 18 road starts.
Over is 5-2 in Lester’s last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 5-2 in Lester’s last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
Over is 7-3-1 in Lester’s last 11 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 games following a win.
Over is 7-1 in Reds last 8 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Reds last 7 overall.
Over is 6-1 in Reds last 7 on grass.
Over is 6-1 in Reds last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Reds last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Over is 4-1 in Reds last 5 home games.
Over is 4-1 in Reds last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 6-2 in Reds last 8 Sunday games.
Under is 9-4-1 in Reds last 14 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 in Castillo’s last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
Under is 10-1 in Castillo’s last 11 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 18-4 in Castillo’s last 22 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 21-7 in Castillo’s last 28 starts on grass.
Under is 21-7 in Castillo’s last 28 starts overall.
Under is 13-5 in Castillo’s last 18 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Under is 5-2 in Castillo’s last 7 home starts.
Over is 7-3 in Castillo’s last 10 Sunday starts.
Under is 7-3 in Castillo’s last 10 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 13-6 in Castillo’s last 19 starts with 5 days of rest.
Under is 4-0 in Castillo’s last 4 starts vs. Cubs.
Over is 6-0-2 in Lester’s last 8 road starts vs. Reds.
Cubs are 14-3 in Lester’s last 17 starts vs. Reds.
Over is 12-3-2 in Lester’s last 17 starts vs. Reds.
Cubs are 6-2 in Lester’s last 8 road starts vs. Reds.
Over is 30-14-4 in the last 48 meetings in Cincinnati.
Cubs are 3-10 in the last 13 meetings in Cincinnati.
