Penn State vs Houston Free Pick – 2012 Ticket City Bowl

Penn State (9-3) vs Houston (12-1)
When: Monday, January 2nd, 2012
Where: Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX
Time: Noon ET

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The point spread for this year’s Ticket City Bowl between the Penn State Nittany Lions and Houston Cougars opened up at -6 in favor of the Cougars at Bovada Sportsbook on 12/12/11. As of Tuesday night (12/27), the line has not moved. Bovada hasn’t released a total, but most books have it set at 56.5. Right now, 57% of the betting public is on Houston and 56% are on the over. To help you better decide who to bet, take a look at these trends for tonight.

Nittany Lions are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.

Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.

Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.

Cougars are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.

Under is 7-1-1 in Nittany Lions last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.

Under is 9-2-1 in Nittany Lions last 12 games overall.

Over is 5-2 in Cougars last 7 neutral site games.

Over is 22-10 in Cougars last 32 games overall.

My Prediction: It’s hard to imagine a team not wanting to be in this spot than Penn State. As everyone knows they were rocked by a scandal during the season and Joe Paterno was fired. To make matters worse for these poor kids is that the bigger Bowls passed them up for a 7-5 Iowa team, 6-6 Ohio State team. Houston really doesn’t want to be here also, but if they didn’t lose the C-USA Championship Game, they would be playing in a BCS Bowl. Houston is playing close to home and their offense should have success against a good Nittany Lion defense. If Houston gets out to an early lead, Penn State could pack it in.

Houston -6

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