New England (10-2) at Miami (5-7)
When: Monday, December 11th 2017
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Time: 8:30 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: New England -12/48.5
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The New England Patriots have been as hot as any team in the league and they will seek their ninth-straight victory when they visit the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football to conclude Week 14. New England is tied with Pittsburgh for the best overall record (and No. 1 seed) in the AFC entering Sunday, and will be in Pittsburgh next Sunday. The Patriots, who beat Miami a 35-17 three weeks ago, have lost three of their last four trips to Miami and don’t want to get caught looking ahead to next week. While the Patriots can clinch their ninth AFC East title in a row, the Dolphins need a victory to keep their fading postseason hopes alive. Miami, which entered Week 14 trailing Baltimore by two games for the final playoff slot in the AFC, ended a five-game losing streak with a 35-9 romp over the reeling Denver Broncos last weekend. Miami has not fared well in prime time this year, losing all three games under the lights and getting outscored 112-45.
Quarterback Tom Brady failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time since the season opener in last week’s 23-3 win at Buffalo, but he did throw four of them three weeks ago against Miami and has 11 touchdowns to one interception in his last four matchups with the Dolphins. Brady, who did not practice due to an Achilles injury, will be without star tight end Rob Gronkowski. The All-Pro caught two TD passes versus Miami, but was suspended one game for delivering a forearm to the back of the head of a prone Buffalo defensive back last week. Dion Lewis ran for 115 yards against the Dolphins in the first meeting and leads a ground game that has registered over 190 yards in each of New England’s last two wins. The defense was the worst in football early on in the season, but they have made adjustments and haven’t allowed more than 17 points during the eight-game winning streak.
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Miami was one of the worst teams in the league during their recent five-game losing streak, allowing a mind-boggling 177 points before handing Denver its eighth straight defeat, getting a pair of safeties and a touchdown from its defense and special teams. Quarterback Jay Cutler was not on the field during last month’s meeting versus the Patriots due to injury, but returned last week – albeit a little rusty – throwing for 235 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Wide receiver Jarvis Landry has at least five catches in every game this season, including eight for 70 yards in the first matchup, and has at least six receptions in his last six games versus New England. Fellow wideout Kenny Stills has 278 yards and two TDs in his last two home games. Kenyan Drake stepped in for an injured Damien Williams to rush for 120 yards and a TD on 23 carries last week.
New England is rolling, but they really seem to have a tough time in Miami no matter how good or bad the Dolphins are. Cutler shook-off the rust last week and should be primed for a solid performance on Monday. I think the Dolphins keep this one close.
Pick: Dolphins +11
- Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
- Patriots are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games on grass.
- Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Patriots are 10-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Patriots are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games.
- Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 14.
- Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC East.
- Patriots are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS win.
- Patriots are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 Monday games.
- Patriots are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 vs. AFC.
- Patriots are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games overall.
- Patriots are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up win.
- Patriots are 78-38-2 ATS in their last 118 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in December.
- Dolphins are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Dolphins are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.
- Dolphins are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Dolphins are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Dolphins are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Dolphins are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 Monday games.
- Dolphins are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC East.
- Under is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Under is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 10-2 in Patriots last 12 games on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 road games.
- Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games in December.
- Over is 11-3 in Patriots last 14 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Patriots last 8 games overall.
- Over is 8-3 in Patriots last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games in Week 14.
- Over is 9-4 in Patriots last 13 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Over is 34-16-1 in Patriots last 51 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 7-0 in Dolphins last 7 games overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 games in December.
- Over is 4-0 in Dolphins last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Dolphins last 4 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 games on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 vs. AFC.
- Over is 4-0 in Dolphins last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Over is 8-1 in Dolphins last 9 vs. AFC East.
- Over is 8-2 in Dolphins last 10 Monday games.
- Over is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games in Week 14.
- Over is 6-2 in Dolphins last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Over is 10-4 in Dolphins last 14 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 5-2 in Dolphins last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Under is 5-2 in Dolphins last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 5-2 in Dolphins last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 9-4 in Dolphins last 13 games following a ATS win.
- Home team is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
- Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
- Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
- Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
- Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Miami.
