Patriots vs Chiefs Preview & Free Pick [AFC Championship]

New England (12-5) at Kansas City (13-4)
When: Sunday, January 20th, 2019
Where: Arrowhead Stadium,
Kansas City, Missouri

Time: 6:40 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: Kansas City -4/55


Its extremely rare to find a Tom Brady/Bill Belichick team as underdogs in any game over the last decade and a half, but that is the case here in the biggest game of the season. The New England Patriots will visit the Kansas City Chiefs as 3-point underdogs in the AFC Championship Game taking place on what is expected to be a very chilly late Sunday afternoon. The cold weather shouldn’t effect either team, but it may have bothered the Indianapolis Colts last week when the Chiefs jumped out to an early lead and never looked back in earning just their second playoff win in the last 13 chances. This will be the Chiefs second trip to the AFC title game since 1970 with the previous one coming following the 1993 season – a loss in Buffalo. This will be their first-ever conference title game at home. Playing in the game right before the Super Bowl is nothing new to the Patriots, who are making their 15th trip to the AFC Championship Game, one shy of Pittsburgh’s conference record. The Pats are 10-4 overall and make their NFL-record eighth straight trip. Last year, they rallied for a 24-20 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, but that game was in Foxborough. Kansas City and New England last met in the playoffs following the 2015 season in the Divisional Round, with New England winning 27-20 at home. They also met in Week 6 of this season in one of the better games of the NFL season. New England was at home in this one as well and came away with a 43-40 shootout win on Stephen Gostkowski’s 28-yard field goal as time expired. Tom Brady threw for 340 yards and a score, while rookie Sony Michel rushed for 106 yards and two scores on 24 carries. Kansas City’s electrifying quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for 352 and four scores – three of them to speedster Tyreek Hill – but was also picked off twice.


New England took advantage of a L.A. Chargers team that was making their second trip back to the East Coast for an early kickoff in two weeks. The game was over before it started as the Patriots scored a touchdown on their first four possessions and led 35-7 at half. Brady improved to 20-3 at home in his amazing playoff career, but has lost his last three playoff road contests. He threw for 343 yards and a score, while Michel rushed for 129 yards and three touchdowns. Everyone seemed to be writing this New England team off – including me – but it appears they’re not going anywhere just yet. It’s New England’s first road playoff game since losing in Denver following the 2015 season and only the second time the Pats are playoff underdogs since 2007.

Kansas City also rolled at home last week with a convincing 31-13 victory over the Colts, snapping a six-game home losing streak in the postseason. Indy had been the hottest team in the NFL coming into that game, winning 10 of their previous 11. In his playoff debut, Mahomes threw for 278 yards but no TDs, while tight end Travis Kelce caught seven balls for 108 yards. The running game and defense stepped up in a big way, though. The Chiefs ran for 180 yards and four scores and controlled the ball for nearly 40 minutes, while allowing only 263 yards. Did that one game turn around the Chiefs’ playoff woes? We’ll see.

This is the tougher of the two games for me to handicap. While I’m pretty confident in my pick over in the NFC Championship Game, I’m not so much in this one. I’ve been hearing the talk all week over in the Patriots camp about how much they’re being disrespected. And some of that is true. Like I said last week, I don’t think they’re as dominant as previous New England teams. But the fact is, they still have Brady and Belichick and that enough can be good enough on most days. I like the fact that the Patriots can now run the ball effectively with Michel and that will be key in keeping the ball out of Mahomes’ hands as much as possible. Getting points with New England is rare, and I’m going to take it.

Pick: Patriots +3

https://youtu.be/g_6bO0YHFjk


Betting Trends:

  • Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
  • Patriots are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Patriots are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Patriots are 26-9-2 ATS in their last 37 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games.
  • Patriots are 19-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Patriots are 21-9-1 ATS in their last 31 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • Patriots are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 games overall.
  • Patriots are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 vs. AFC.
  • Patriots are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 road games.
  • Patriots are 38-18-2 ATS in their last 58 games following a straight up win.
  • Patriots are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games following a ATS win.
  • Patriots are 82-40-2 ATS in their last 124 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Patriots are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Conference Championships games.
  • Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
  • Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
  • Patriots are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Patriots are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Patriots are 26-9-2 ATS in their last 37 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games.
  • Patriots are 19-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Patriots are 21-9-1 ATS in their last 31 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • Patriots are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 games overall.
  • Patriots are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 vs. AFC.
  • Patriots are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 road games.
  • Patriots are 38-18-2 ATS in their last 58 games following a straight up win.
  • Patriots are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games following a ATS win.
  • Patriots are 82-40-2 ATS in their last 124 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Patriots are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Conference Championships games.
  • Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
  • Over is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 playoff games.
  • Under is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games in January.
  • Under is 8-2 in Patriots last 10 games overall.
  • Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 road games.
  • Under is 6-2 in Patriots last 8 Conference Championships games.
  • Under is 9-3 in Patriots last 12 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Under is 6-2 in Patriots last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Under is 6-2 in Patriots last 8 vs. AFC.
  • Under is 9-3 in Patriots last 12 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Under is 14-5 in Patriots last 19 games on grass.
  • Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games following a straight up win.
  • Under is 7-3 in Patriots last 10 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Over is 3-0-1 in Chiefs last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Under is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 playoff home games.
  • Under is 3-0-1 in Chiefs last 4 games following a ATS win.
  • Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 playoff games.
  • Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 3-1-1 in Chiefs last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
  • Under is 3-1-1 in Chiefs last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Under is 14-5 in Chiefs last 19 games in January.
  • Over is 5-2 in Chiefs last 7 games overall.
  • Over is 5-2-1 in Chiefs last 8 games following a straight up win.
  • Under is 5-2-1 in Chiefs last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • Under is 50-22-1 in Chiefs last 73 home games.
  • Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
  • Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

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