New England (10-7) at Buffalo (11-6)
When: Saturday, January 15th 2022
Where: Highmark Stadium,
Orchard Park, NY
Time: 8:15 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: Buffalo -4/43.5
It’s an all-AFC East matchup this Saturday night in frigid Orchard Park, NY when the Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots. This is the third time these rivals have met since Week 13’s epic weather game. The Patriots prevailed in cold and windy conditions by running the ball on almost every single play. Mac Jones attempted just three passes, as the Pats ran it 46 times for 221 yards and a touchdown. The Bills knew exactly what New England was going to do and just couldn’t stop it. Buffalo tried doing the same thing, but failed. This week’s weather is expected to be in the single-digits with winds of 10-15 mph and wind chills below zero. However, snow doesn’t appear it will be an issue.
The Bills got revenge on Christmas weekend, going up to Foxborough and winning 33-21 behind three touchdowns from Josh Allen. Buffalo outgained New England 428-288 and held the ball for 11 more minutes. The Patriots were able to run the ball again with Damien Jones recording 103 yards on just 18 carries with three touchdowns. Jones was ineffective, throwing for only 145 yards with no touchdowns and two picks. It’s just the second-ever playoff matchup between these teams. They met in an AFL divisional round game in 1963, with the Boston Patriots beating the Bills 26-3. The underdog is 5-1-1 against the spread in the past seven meetings. Buffalo is a 4-point favorite as of Tuesday morning with a total set at 43.5.
New England had a slim shot at improving their playoff seeding entering Week 18, but were beaten 33-24 at Miami – a place they always seem to have trouble. It was the third time in the last four games that New England surrendered at least 27 points. The team went 1-3 down the stretch after a seven-game winning streak that included a win at Buffalo. During that streak, the Patriots allowed more than 13 points just once. The unit still ranks No. 2 in points allowed (17.8) and fourth overall (310.8 ypg). Jones threw for 261 yards last week with a touchdown and interception. He also had a lost fumble and New England is 1-4 this season when Jones has multiple turnovers. The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their past five playoff road games.
Buffalo clinched the AFC East last week with a 27-10 home win over the lowly New York Jets and moved up to the No. 3 seed. Buffalo closed the season by winning their last four – all by double-digits. Allen threw two touchdowns on 24-of-45 passing and also ran for another 63 yards. Devin Singletary had 88 yards and a TD on 19 carries. The Bills No. 1 ranked defense held the Jets to just 53 total yards. They also finished No. 1 in scoring defense, allowing 17.0 points a game – just ahead of New England. The Bills are the first team since the 2012 Steelers to lead the NFL in total defense without a player selected to the Pro Bowl, which speaks to a solid group effort.
All signs point to Buffalo in this one, but I’ll take Bill Belichick as an underdog. This should be a low-scoring game because of the great defenses, but also the frigid weather. Buffalo has looked pretty impressive this season, but they had one of the softest schedules in the league. I say this will be a field goal game.
Pick: Patriots +4
Wild Card Staff Selections
