Green Bay (4-4-1) at Seattle (4-5)
When: Thursday, November 15th 2018
Where: CenturyLink Field,
Seattle, Washington
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Seattle -2/49.5
The NFL Prime Time schedule the last few weeks has been less than desirable, but Week 11 brings three terrific matchups beginning with Thursday’s Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks contest from CenturyLink Field. These teams are no strangers to each other, as this will be the sixth meeting since the 2014 season with the most memorable coming at the end of that ’14 season. Green Bay appeared headed to the Super Bowl that season and held a 19-7 lead with just over two minutes left in the NFC Championship Game. After Seattle cut the deficit to 19-14 with just over 2:00 remaining, they recovered the onsides kick and went on to win, eventually losing a thriller to the Patriots in Super Bowl XLIX. Aaron Rodgers got the best of Wilson last regular season at Lambeau in a 17-9 Week 1 victory, throwing for 311 yards and a score, while the Packers defense held Seattle to 225 total yards. It was the Packers’ third straight regular-season victory vs. Seattle, but the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Green Bay got back to .500 with a 31-12 win over the visiting Dolphins last week and received a career-high 145 yards rushing from running back Aaron Jones. Seattle came up short for the second time this season against the NFC West-leading Los Angeles Rams, falling 36-31 in L.A. Each Seattle loss this season (five) has been by eight points or fewer and the two to L.A. by a combined seven points. The Seahawks are on a roll when playing on Thursday, going 7-0-1 ATS in their past eight.
Jones has not only run for 306 yards and three touchdowns in his last three games, he’s also averaging a hefty 6.8 yards per carry – tops in the NFL. Seattle’s defense will need to close those gaps, as they’ve allowed 5.0 yards per carry this season. Taking pressure off Rodgers with a solid running game is not a must, but should make him even more effective through the air. Wide receiver Davante Adams caught two of Rodgers’ touchdown passed last Sunday against Miami and his 31 TD receptions since 2016 are tied for the most in the league. Green Bay’s defense is fifth in the NFL against the pass, but 22nd versus the run.
Running the ball is something Seattle has been doing much better at this season. Chris Carson (hip) will rejoin a backfield that saw first-round rookie Rashaad Penny rush for a career-best 108 yards and a touchdown against the Rams while fellow running back Mike Davis had his first career receiving score. The Seahawks now have the No. 1 rushing attack in the NFL (152.2) and will be facing a Packers defense that has surrendered at least 123 rushing yards in each of the last four weeks. Linebacker Bobby Wagner has recorded back-to-back 13-tackle performances for a defense that ranks seventh against the pass (228.3).
Neither team can afford a loss in this one, but I’m giving the edge to the home team here. Green Bay has been awful on the road (0-4), covering the spread in just one of them. Seattle begins a stretch of five home games in the next seven weeks and should be able to continue their top-ranked rushing attack and handle the Packers here. Be sure to subscribe to our YouTube Channel to get Jay Cooper’s perspective on this game Thursday morning.
Pick: Seahawks -2.5
Betting Trends:
- Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
- Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Packers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Packers are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Packers are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games in November.
- Packers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. NFC.
- Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
- Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
- Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
- Seahawks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games.
- Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
- Seahawks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Seahawks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Seahawks are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games following a straight up loss.
- Seahawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in Packers last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 6-1 in Packers last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 11-2 in Packers last 13 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 17-4 in Packers last 21 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 22-6 in Packers last 28 vs. NFC.
- Over is 7-2 in Packers last 9 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 7-2 in Packers last 9 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Over is 6-2 in Packers last 8 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 23-9 in Packers last 32 games overall.
- Over is 5-2 in Packers last 7 Thursday games.
- Over is 35-16 in Packers last 51 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 Thursday games.
- Under is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Seahawks last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games in Week 11.
- Under is 6-2 in Seahawks last 8 games overall.
- Under is 6-2 in Seahawks last 8 games in November.
- Under is 13-5 in Seahawks last 18 vs. NFC.
- Over is 5-2 in Seahawks last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 7-3 in Seahawks last 10 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
- Home team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
- Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Seattle.
