Green Bay (3-2-1) at LA Rams (7-0)
When: Sunday, October 28th 2018
Where: LA Memorial Coliseum,
Los Angeles, California
Time: 4:25 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Los Angeles -8/56.5
The Los Angeles Rams are quickly becoming the favorite in this year’s Super Bowl odds and are well on their way to giving me a winner on the season total of 10.5. Back in August, I predicted the Rams would have a big season and they have opened up a four-game lead in the NFC West and will cruise into the playoffs. L.A. has been at least a 7-point favorite in each of its last six games, but are just 1-3 against the spread in their last four with the only cover coming in a 39-10 win over the San Francisco 49ers last week. The Rams have the best point differential in the NFL this season at +107. The oddsmakers have the Packers as 9.5-point underdog against the Rams this weekend and that is something Green Bay fans are not accustomed to seeing. This is the largest underdog tag the Packers have held in a game with Aaron Rodgers under center since he took over in 2008. Green Bay is coming in off their bye after edging the 49ers in Week 6 33-30. The three-point victory wasn’t good enough for the club to cover as 9-point home favorites. The Packers have won and covered the last five meetings, although the teams haven’t played since 2015.
Rodgers has been hobbled by a knee injury since Week 1, but is still putting up big numbers despite it. He comes in with 12 touchdowns versus one interception and 1,997 yards and will get wide receivers Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison back in the lineup after missing the last few weeks. Fellow wideout Davante Adams has been terrific taking over the lead role, hauling in 27 catches and three touchdowns while eclipsing 100 yards in each of the past two games. Green Bay has been unable to put together a consistent ground game. Aaron Jones is averaging 5.9 yards per carry but he’s only had 15 rushing attempts in his last two games. The defense will have their hands full with Rams running back Todd Gurley, and rank 22nd in the league (116.5 yards) against the run.
Gurley is well on his way to winning another NFL Offensive Player of the Year award, but could also be in line to winning MVP honors as well. He leads the league in rushing with 686 yards and touchdowns with 14, including 11 on the ground. Gurley has taken a lot of pressure off quarterback Jared Goff with his monster season thus far. Goff has barely passed for more than 200 yards in each of the past two games but he has 14 touchdown passes against five interceptions and still averages more than 300 yards passing. The Rams will be without wide receiver Cooper Kupp (5 TDs) for the second straight game, but Goff still has dangerous targets in Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks. The defense has been just as strong, led by reigning Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, who is tied for the NFL lead with 8.0 sacks.
Yes, the Rams are the best team in the NFL right now, but that doesn’t mean they will cover the spread every week. They have been sluggish in some games recently and will get a fired-up Rodgers coming off a bye. Its simple, anytime you can get Rodgers and almost 10 points, you take it. You really don’t have to do a deep-dive into stats and trends here. Rams win by single-digits.
Pick: Packers +9.5
Betting Trends:
- Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
- Packers are 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Packers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
- Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Packers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
- Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
- Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
- Packers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week.
- Rams are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 8.
- Rams are 16-39-1 ATS in their last 56 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Rams are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 10-1 in Packers last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 7-1 in Packers last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in Packers last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 12-2 in Packers last 14 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Packers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 14-3 in Packers last 17 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 22-5 in Packers last 27 vs. NFC.
- Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
- Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 23-6 in Packers last 29 games overall.
- Over is 20-7 in Packers last 27 games on grass.
- Under is 5-2 in Packers last 7 games following a bye week.
- Over is 38-17 in Packers last 55 road games.
- Over is 6-0 in Rams last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in Rams last 6 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Rams last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 6-2 in Rams last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Rams last 8 games in Week 8.
- Over is 5-2 in Rams last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Rams last 7 games on grass.
- Over is 7-3 in Rams last 10 games following a straight up win.
- Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.
- Favorite is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
