Green Bay (6-1) at Kansas City (5-2)
When: Sunday, October 27th, 2019
Where: Arrowhead Stadium,
Kansas City, MO
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: Kansas City -3.5/48
With all the garbage prime time games we’ve seen this season, the Week 8 Sunday Night battle between the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs has been highly anticipated. Well, some of the luster has been taken off with reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes being ruled out for this contest against two-time MVP Aaron Rodgers. This could have been the only chance these two stars met each other with the Packers and Chiefs not playing again for another four years. Although, with the way things are going, a Super Bowl I rematch is not out of the question. Mahomes won’t be out long, in fact, he practiced a little bit this week, but the dislocated kneecap needs more time to heal. The Chiefs probably won’t be threatened in the AFC West and snapped a two-game losing streak with a dominant 30-6 win at Denver last Thursday night. Rodgers has helped the injury-plagued Packers to a 6-1 start and have won three straight after a 42-24 home win over Oakland last Sunday. The first-ever Super Bowl saw the NFL’s Packers beat the AFL’s Chiefs 35-10. The teams have split the past four meetings, last in 2015 when the Packers were 38-28 home winners – Mahomes was still in Lubbock, Texas and Alex Smith was Kansas City’s quarterback. Rodgers threw for 333 yards and five touchdowns. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, while the over is 4-1 in those five.
Green Bay ranks 26th in total defense and has given up 420 or more total yards three times, but the team is ninth in scoring defense thanks to 13 takeaways. The unit started the season off by allowing a combined 35 points in the first three games, but have since surrendered 22 or more over the last four. The offence is starting to really click under first-year head coach Matt LaFleur and Rodgers had one of the best games of his career last Sunday, throwing for 429 yards and five touchdowns and ran for another score. Rodgers had the first perfect QB rating of his career even though No. 1 receiver Davante Adams missed a third straight game with turf toe and is not expected to play this Sunday. The Packers are 5-2-1 ATS in their past eight following a win by more than 14 points. They have failed to eclipse 80 rushing yards in four of their seven games.
Mahomes was injured on a quarterback sneak on fourth-and-1 close to the Denver goal line with about nine minutes left in the second quarter of Kansas City’s 30-6 victory last Thursday. “His knee didn’t even look like a knee. It was all out of whack. I couldn’t even describe it,” Pro Bowl Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce said. So, it’s journeyman Matt Moore taking over in the interim. The 35-year-old didn’t play in the NFL last year and only signed this preseason when projected Chiefs No. 2 Chad Henne broke his ankle. Moore was 10-for-19 for 117 yards and a touchdown against the Broncos in relief of Mahomes. Kansas City’s defense held Denver to 205 total yards last week and have forced turnovers in six of their seven games – including four games with multiple takeaways. They are 10th against the pass, but 29th versus the run.
The line in this one keeps going up, as the public is all over the Packers. I don’t think Kansas City is that bad without Mahomes. Their defense has been playing much better and Green Bay is still banged-up at wide receiver. Look for the Chiefs step-up with their leader out and keep this one close.
Pick: Chiefs +5.5 (More Week 8 Free Picks)
Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Packers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Packers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Packers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.
Packers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Packers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 8.
Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Chiefs are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win.
Chiefs are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Chiefs are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 18-4 in Packers last 22 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Packers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 20-6 in Packers last 26 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 14-5 in Packers last 19 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 19-7 in Packers last 26 road games.
Under is 5-2 in Packers last 7 games following a ATS win.
Under is 5-2 in Packers last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 14-6 in Packers last 20 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 5-1-1 in Chiefs last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1-1 in Chiefs last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 8-2 in Chiefs last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 3-1-1 in Chiefs last 5 games in October.
Under is 17-8 in Chiefs last 25 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 51-25-1 in Chiefs last 77 home games.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
