Oregon (9-1) at Arizona State (5-5)
When: Saturday, November 23rd 2019
Where: Sun Devil Stadium,
Tempe, Arizona
Time: 7:30 ET | TV: ABC
Opening Odds: Oregon -15.5/57
Both the Oregon Ducks and Arizona State Sun Devils have goals to play beyond the regular season, and the two will continue their quests against each other on Saturday night in Tempe. The goals, however, are very different. Oregon is ranked No. 6 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings and have already clinched a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game against either Utah or USC. A stumble against the Sun Devils would eliminate all hope for the playoffs, and the Ducks come into this contest as over two touchdown favorites at most offshore sportsbooks. Oregon has won nine games in a row since opening the season with a loss against Auburn, after a 34-6 home win over Arizona, jumping out to a 28-6 lead midway through the third quarter and finishing with a 471-240 edge in total yards. It’s been a tough season for head coach Herm Edwards’ team, as they try to avoid its first five-game losing streak since 2016. The Sun Devils haven’t won since a 38-34 home victory over Washington State on Oct. 12 including a 35-34 loss at Oregon State last Saturday. Arizona State has failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games and are 3-6-1 ATS on the season. The Ducks have won 11 of the last 12 meetings including a 31-29 win in Eugene last season.
Quarterback Justin Herbert decided not to turn pro after last season, and the decision has paid-off so far. The senior has completed 220-of-316 passes for 2,662 yards, 28 touchdowns and just three interceptions, and needs just 268 passing yards to join 2014 Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota as the only players in Oregon history with 10,000 career passing yards. The Ducks average 183.2 rushing yards per game led by sophomore CJ Verdell, who boasts 814 yards on 129 carries (6.3 average) and five TDs. Oregon’s defense is the best we’ve seen at this school in a long time and ranks 15th in FBS, allowing 308 yards per contest and just 14.8 points – 10th-best. It’s not an easy unit to run against also, ranking 11th in the country (102.8). The Ducks will wrap-up the season next week against rival Oregon State.
Arizona State needs to win one of their final two games to go bowling, and this will certainly be the tougher of the two – next week versus Arizona. The offense ranks 120th running the football (115.4), and get most of their yards through the air behind freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels, who ranks second in the Pac-12 with an average of 275.9 yards of total offense per game. Junior running back Eno Benjamin has 801 yards rushing on the season and 34 receptions for 279 yards. The defense, which has allowed just one fourth-quarter touchdown in its last seven games, is great against the run (109.5), but gets scorched through the air (270.9).
Road conference games are tough, and the Sun Devils defense can cause some problems for Herbert and company. This is a lot of points to lay against a team with nothing to lose. Arizona State’s offense is getting better and should do enough to keep this one close.
Pick: Arizona State +14.5 (More Week 13 Free Picks)
Betting Trends:
Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Ducks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
Ducks are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games on grass.
Ducks are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win.
Ducks are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Ducks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Ducks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Sun Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Sun Devils are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Sun Devils are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
Sun Devils are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games on grass.
Sun Devils are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Sun Devils are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
Sun Devils are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Under is 5-0 in Ducks last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 7-1 in Ducks last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Under is 7-1 in Ducks last 8 games on grass.
Under is 4-1 in Ducks last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Under is 12-4-1 in Ducks last 17 road games.
Over is 52-22-2 in Ducks last 76 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 18-8-1 in Ducks last 27 games following a straight up win.
Over is 4-0 in Sun Devils last 4 games on grass.
Over is 5-1 in Sun Devils last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 5-1 in Sun Devils last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Sun Devils last 5 games overall.
Over is 4-1 in Sun Devils last 5 conference games.
Over is 11-4 in Sun Devils last 15 games in November.
Under is 5-2 in Sun Devils last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Sun Devils last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 5-2 in Sun Devils last 7 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Ducks are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
Ducks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Arizona State.
