Notre Dame (5-0) at Virginia Tech (3-1)
When: Saturday, October 6th 2018
Where: Lane Stadium,
Blacksburg, Virginia
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: ABC
Opening Odds: Notre Dame -1.5/55.5
The Virginia Tech Hokies may have lost their star quarterback and a bit of their ego when they were upset a few weeks ago, but they are still in the driver’s seat when it comes to representing the ACC Coastal Division. After a nice bounce back game last week, the Hokies look to keep the momentum going when they host the seventh-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish for the first time in Blacksburg on Saturday night. The Hokies, who fell out of the rankings after their shocking loss to Old Dominion two weeks ago, got back into the Top 25 with a win at previously undefeated Duke last weekend. Virginia Tech got a huge performance from a quarterback who started the year at No. 2 on the depth chart, as Ryan Willis threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns in his first start in place of the injured Josh Jackson. Notre Dame completed a perfect September that included wins over two ranked teams and will get another in 23rd-ranked Virginia Tech Saturday. Fighting Irish coach Brian Kelly made a change at quarterback two weeks ago, inserting Ian Book into the starting lineup, and the junior threw for 278 yards and four touchdowns in the 38-17 win over Stanford last weekend. Notre Dame recorded 550 yards of total offense against Stanford while limiting the Cardinal to 31 total yards in the second half. Virginia Tech won the only previous meeting between the schools 34-31 at Notre Dame in 2016.
Senior wide receiver Myles Boykin (20 catches for 311 yards) has made the most of the quarterback switch, catching 11 Book passes for 144 yards and a touchdown against Stanford. The Irish welcomed back senior running back Dexter Williams, who missed the first four games for disciplinary reasons, as he rumbled for 161 yards and a touchdown in his first game of the season. Notre Dame did suffer a couple of key injuries in the win over Stanford last weekend, as star offensive lineman Alex Bars was lost for the season to a knee injury, while running back Tony Jones Jr. suffered a sprained ankle and is questionable this week.
The Virginia Tech defense was scorched for 600 yards and seven touchdowns to Old Dominion two weeks ago, but came back strong to limit Duke to 327 yards and 4-of-16 on third down conversions last week. They will need a similar type effort against the Irish. Offensively, Willis kept the Hokies offense moving without Jackson and found nine different receivers for 17 catches against Duke, including four for 65 yards and a touchdown to sophomore Damon Hazelton. Virginia Tech’s offensive line did a terrific job against Duke, limiting them to one sack last week, but Notre Dame recorded five sacks and four quarterback hurries a week ago against the Cardinal.
Too many people wrote this Virginia Tech team off after the embarrassing loss to Old Dominion, but this is still a pretty good team with a lot to play for. Night games in Blacksburg are tough on the road team, and with the majority of the betting public on the Irish, I’ll gladly take the home underdog here.
Pick: Virginia Tech +6.5
Betting Trends:
- Fighting Irish are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Fighting Irish are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
- Fighting Irish are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Fighting Irish are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
- Fighting Irish are 39-18-2 ATS in their last 59 games in October.
- Fighting Irish are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.
- Fighting Irish are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Fighting Irish are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Fighting Irish are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Hokies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
- Hokies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Hokies are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Hokies are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games.
- Hokies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
- Over is 7-1 in Fighting Irish last 8 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Fighting Irish last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Fighting Irish last 6 games in October.
- Under is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 road games.
- Under is 7-2 in Fighting Irish last 9 games overall.
- Under is 7-2 in Fighting Irish last 9 non-conference games.
- Under is 6-2 in Fighting Irish last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 8-3 in Fighting Irish last 11 games on grass.
- Under is 8-1 in Hokies last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Hokies last 5 games on grass.
- Under is 15-4 in Hokies last 19 games in October.
- Under is 7-2 in Hokies last 9 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 6-2-1 in Hokies last 9 home games.
- Over is 16-6-1 in Hokies last 23 non-conference games.
- Under is 23-9-1 in Hokies last 33 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 10-4 in Hokies last 14 games overall.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Hokies last 8 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
