Washington (5-5) at Philadelphia (7-3)
When: Wednesday, April 10th, 2019
Where: Citizens Bank Park,
Philadelphia, PA
Time: 7:05 ET | TV: MASN, NBCS Philly
Opening Odds: Philadelphia -139/9.5
The Philadelphia Phillies were one strike away from putting down the Washington Nationals for the third time in four meetings this season, but Victor Robles blasted a game-tying solo home run off Edubray Ramos in the top of the ninth inning. The Nationals then scored four times in the 10th inning, capped by a three-run homer by Juan Soto in the 10-6 win to even their season series at two apiece. The Phillies will look to rebound in the series finale on Wednesday behind Nick Pivetta who opposes veteran right Jeremy Hellickson. Yan Gomes and Howie Kendrick homered as well for Washington, while Anthony Rendon rides a nine-game hitting streak into Wednesday. Rendon is 8-for-16 with two homers, five RBIs and five runs scored in the four games versus the Phillies this season. Philadelphia slugger Bryce Harper hit his second homer against his former team on Tuesday after blasting one off Hellickson on April 2nd. Phillies shortstop Jean Segura is also having fun against Washington this season, going 8-for-18 with six RBIs and four runs scored in four contests.
Pitchers: Nationals – Jeremy Hellickson (0-0, 9.00 ERA) | Phillies – Nick Pivetta (1-0, 6.52)
Hellickson came in from the bullpen in his only appearance this season on April 2nd and allowed the Harper home run among three hits in two innings. Hellickson was 5-3 with a 3.45 ERA in 19 starts last season and one of those setbacks was to Philadelphia on June 30th after allowing three runs on seven hits including a homer to Odubel Herrera in 4.2 innings of work. He was much better against the Phillies in his lone other try, pitching eight innings of one-run ball (zero earned) while with Arizona in 2015.
Pivetta will make his third start of the season and is still looking for his first quality outing after giving up four runs to the Braves and four more against Minnesota on Friday. The Phillies went on to win both of those games 8-6 and 10-4 respectively. Pivetta was at his worst last season when facing Washington five time. He allowed a total of 17 runs on 23 hits including seven home runs en route to 1-3 mark. Rendon is 6-for-12 with three HRs lifetime versus Pivetta, while Soto is 3-for-7 with a dinger.
I’m taking the over in this game with these two pitchers on the mound against a pair of offenses that can bomb it out of a hitter-friendly park. You saw Pivetta’s numbers against the Nationals in 2018 and he’s allowed eight runs in two games this season. That’s about all you need to know.
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Pick: OVER 9 -110
BETTING TRENDS:
Nationals are 7-1 in their last 8 during game 3 of a series.
Nationals are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Nationals are 11-3 in their last 14 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Nationals are 10-4 in their last 14 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Nationals are 1-6 in their last 7 games following a win.
Nationals are 1-4 in Hellickson’s last 5 road starts.
Nationals are 1-5 in Hellickson’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Nationals are 1-5 in Hellickson’s last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 7-0 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Phillies are 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Phillies are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
Phillies are 7-2 in their last 9 vs. National League East.
Phillies are 6-2 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 9-3 in their last 12 overall.
Phillies are 9-3 in their last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Phillies are 9-3 in their last 12 games on grass.
Phillies are 3-8 in their last 11 games following a loss.
Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 Wednesday games.
Phillies are 4-9 in Pivetta’s last 13 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 2-5 in Pivetta’s last 7 starts on grass.
Phillies are 2-5 in Pivetta’s last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 3-8 in Pivetta’s last 11 starts.
Phillies are 1-5 in Pivetta’s last 6 starts vs. National League East.
Phillies are 0-6 in Pivetta’s last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
Phillies are 0-5 in Pivetta’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
Over is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 during game 3 of a series.
Over is 6-1 in Nationals last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Nationals last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Over is 5-1 in Nationals last 6 Wednesday games.
Over is 9-2 in Nationals last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 11-3 in Nationals last 14 vs. National League East.
Over is 7-2 in Nationals last 9 overall.
Over is 7-2 in Nationals last 9 on grass.
Over is 6-2 in Nationals last 8 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 9-3 in Nationals last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 5-2 in Nationals last 7 road games.
Under is 22-9-1 in Nationals last 32 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 9-4 in Nationals last 13 games following a win.
Under is 8-0 in Hellickson’s last 8 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Hellickson’s last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
Under is 6-0 in Hellickson’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 9-0 in Hellickson’s last 9 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 8-0 in Hellickson’s last 8 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 6-0 in Hellickson’s last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 9-0 in Hellickson’s last 9 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 12-1 in Hellickson’s last 13 road starts.
Under is 16-2 in Hellickson’s last 18 starts on grass.
Under is 16-2 in Hellickson’s last 18 starts overall.
Under is 5-1 in Hellickson’s last 6 starts vs. National League East.
Under is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 during game 3 of a series.
Over is 5-2 in Phillies last 7 vs. National League East.
Over is 21-10-1 in Phillies last 32 games following a loss.
Over is 5-0 in Pivetta’s last 5 starts on grass.
Over is 5-0 in Pivetta’s last 5 starts overall.
Over is 8-2 in Pivetta’s last 10 starts with 4 days of rest.
Over is 8-2 in Pivetta’s last 10 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 8-3-1 in Pivetta’s last 12 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Pivetta’s last 7 starts during game 3 of a series.
Over is 9-4 in Pivetta’s last 13 home starts.
Nationals are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia.
Over is 4-1 in Pivetta’s last 5 starts vs. Nationals.
Nationals are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Phillies are 0-6 in Pivetta’s last 6 starts vs. Nationals.
