Washington (1-2) at Chicago Cubs (2-1)
When: Wednesday, October 11th 2017
Where: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Time: 4:05 ET | TV: TBS
Opening Odds: Chicago -150/7.5
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The Chicago Cubs have a chance to advance to the National League Championship Series for the second straight year when they host Game 4 of the NLDS on Wednesday afternoon against the Washington Nationals. 2015 Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta will get the ball for Chicago and says that his nagging right hamstring injury is a ‘non-issue’. Anthony Rizzo’s bloop single in the eighth inning plated the go-ahead run Monday as the Cubs posted a 2-1 victory in Game 3 to regain the series lead after blowing an eighth inning lead in Game 2. Arrieta can close it out as he makes his first start since September 26th. He hopes to follow the rest of Chicago’s starting rotation, which has allowed just two runs – one earned – in 18.2 innings over the first three games of the series. Tanner Roark, who grew up an hour from Wrigley Field, makes the start for the Nationals as they trail in the series despite allowing only eight runs. Rizzo’s game-winner extended his postseason hitting streak to nine games – he’s 13-for-33 during the streak. Cubs’ closer Wade Davis improved to 6-for-6 in save opportunities in the postseason on Monday and has posted a 0.79 ERA in 25 career playoff games.
Pitchers: Nationals – Tanner Roark (13-11, 4.67 ERA) | Cubs – Jake Arrieta (14-10, 3.53)
After making two relief appearances in the 2014 NLDS, Roark received his first postseason start in last year’s NLDS against the Los Angeles Dodgers, allowing two runs and seven hits over 4.1 innings in a no-decision. Roark had a decent second half to the regular season, but faded down the stretch, losing his last two starts before giving up two runs in one inning of relief on October 1st. He is 4-2 with a 4.06 ERA in seven career games (six starts) against the Cubs.
Arrieta has plenty of postseason experience, posting a 4-2 record and 3.64 ERA in seven starts over the last two postseasons, including a pair of wins in last year’s World Series. Arrieta has been terrific in Wrigley Field since joining the Cubs, going 30-14 with a 2.31 ERA in 59 outings. He hasn’t fared as well against the Nationals, however, as he owns a 1-2 record and 5.48 ERA in nine career meetings.
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The Cubs have the weak-hitting Nationals on the ropes here and Arrieta is a big-game pitcher who thrives in this situation. He may not be the same pitcher as he was two years ago, but he’s certainly better than Roark. Cubbies all the way here.
Update: Stephen Strasburg will now pitch this game, but I’m still going with Chicago. The reasoning behind the pitching change is a whole other story that you can read here.
Pick: Cubs -116
BETTING TRENDS:
- Nationals are 14-5 in their last 19 Tuesday games.
- Nationals are 21-8 in their last 29 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Nationals are 13-5 in their last 18 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Nationals are 17-7 in their last 24 games following a loss.
- Nationals are 25-12 in their last 37 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Nationals are 35-17 in their last 52 during game 4 of a series.
- Nationals are 49-24 in their last 73 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Nationals are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
- Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 playoff games.
- Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 games on grass.
- Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 Divisional Playoff games.
- Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Nationals are 4-0 in Roark’s last 4 starts with 8 or more days of rest.
- Nationals are 4-1 in Roark’s last 5 starts during game 4 of a series.
- Nationals are 4-1 in Roark’s last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Nationals are 2-5 in Roark’s last 7 Tuesday starts.
- Cubs are 5-0 in their last 5 Divisional Playoff home games.
- Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cubs are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. National League East.
- Cubs are 5-1 in their last 6 playoff games.
- Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 8-2 in their last 10 Divisional Playoff games.
- Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cubs are 16-5 in their last 21 games on grass.
- Cubs are 20-7 in their last 27 home games.
- Cubs are 22-8 in their last 31 during game 4 of a series.
- Cubs are 19-7 in their last 26 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Cubs are 44-17 in their last 61 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Cubs are 17-7 in their last 24 games following a win.
- Cubs are 17-7 in their last 24 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 14-6 in their last 20 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 35-16 in their last 51 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Cubs are 49-23 in their last 72 Tuesday games.
- Cubs are 35-17 in their last 52 overall.
- Cubs are 5-0 in Arrieta’s last 5 starts during game 4 of a series.
- Cubs are 4-1 in Arrieta’s last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 13-5 in Arrieta’s last 18 starts vs. National League East.
- Cubs are 5-2 in Arrieta’s last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cubs are 43-18 in Arrieta’s last 61 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Cubs are 29-13 in Arrieta’s last 42 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Nationals last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 Tuesday games.
- Over is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 8-2-1 in Nationals last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 14-4-3 in Nationals last 21 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 7-2-2 in Nationals last 11 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 24-8-4 in Nationals last 36 road games.
- Under is 18-6-2 in Nationals last 26 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Nationals last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 16-6-4 in Nationals last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 5-2 in Nationals last 7 during game 4 of a series.
- Under is 33-14-4 in Nationals last 51 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 32-14-7 in Nationals last 53 on grass.
- Under is 32-14-7 in Nationals last 53 overall.
- Under is 32-15-4 in Nationals last 51 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Roark’s last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 10-1 in Roark’s last 11 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 10-2 in Roark’s last 12 starts on grass.
- Under is 5-1 in Roark’s last 6 road starts.
- Under is 10-2 in Roark’s last 12 starts overall.
- Under is 20-6-1 in Roark’s last 27 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Roark’s last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
- Under is 18-7-1 in Roark’s last 26 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 playoff home games.
- Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 11-4 in Cubs last 15 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 11-4-1 in Cubs last 16 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Cubs last 7 games following a win.
- Over is 5-2 in Cubs last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Cubs last 7 during game 4 of a series.
- Over is 12-5-1 in Cubs last 18 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 11-5 in Cubs last 16 on grass.
- Under is 4-0 in Arrieta’s last 4 starts with 13 or more days of rest.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Arrieta’s last 4 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 7-2 in Arrieta’s last 9 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Arrieta’s last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Arrieta’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 7-3 in Arrieta’s last 10 home starts.
- Over is 18-8-3 in Arrieta’s last 29 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Arrieta’s last 4 starts vs. Nationals.
- Nationals are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings in Chicago.
