Mississippi (16-7) at Auburn (16-7)
When: Wednesday, February 13th, 2019
Where: Auburn Arena,
Auburn, Alabama
Time: 8:30 ET | TV: SEC Network
Opening Odds: Auburn -9/155.5
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The Ole Miss Rebels got off to a terrific start this season and were well on their way to their first NCAA Tournament appearance since the 2014-15 season, but then they lost four games in a row at the end of January and doubts started setting in. Well, they’ve put those doubts to rest with wins in back-to-back games and have a chance to sweep the season series with the Auburn Tigers on Wednesday night on the road. Ole Miss cruised to an 82-67 victory over the Tigers at home on January 9th behind a double-double from Terence Davis to earn their 11th victory in the last 13 meetings with Auburn. The Rebels are in fifth place in the SEC – one game behind South Carolina and a game clear of Auburn. The Tigers blew an early 16-point lead in Saturday’s 83-78 loss at No. 21 LSU, snapping a three-game winning streak in which its margin of victory was 23.0 points. Auburn will take a 12-1 home record into the rematch after being held to a season-low point total at Ole Miss.
Leading scorer Breein Tyree poured in 31 points to help Ole Miss to an 80-64 win at Georgia on Saturday, but the guard had a dismal performance in the first matchup against Auburn, managing five points on 1-for-10 shooting. Tyree has been on a roll ever since, averaging 24.0 points of the past five games. Davis led the Rebels in the first meeting against the Tigers with 27 points and 12 rebounds and is averaging 19.9 points in his last five games versus Auburn. If it comes down to free throws, the Rebels have the advantage, ranking No. 9 nationally at 77.0 percent.
Auburn will go as far as their backcourt will take them, and the duo of Bryce Brown and Jared Harper will need better performances than they had in the first matchup with Ole Miss. Brown and Harper average 16.7 and 15.6 points, respectively and have combined to knock down 142 3-pointers on the season. They were just 11-for-38 from the floor in the first matchup, including 3-for-14 by Harper, who scored 25 points and connected on 5-of-8 3-pointers at LSU. Brown is shooting 41.1 percent from 3-point land on the season and hit 7-of-19 in a 23-point effort at Ole Miss.
I was really high on this Auburn team earlier in the year, but they have fallen off as of late, losing four of their last seven. They are, however, good at home – 8-4 ATS with their 21-1 SU record. I’m taking the points in this one though, because Ole Miss has been one of the better spread teams in the country and their 9-2 ATS away from home, plus they’ve covered six of the last eight meetings with Auburn.
Pick: Ole Miss +8.5
Rebels are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
Rebels are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Rebels are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Wednesday games.
Rebels are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win.
Rebels are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win.
Rebels are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games overall.
Rebels are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Tigers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Wednesday games.
Tigers are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Tigers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Tigers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Tigers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.
Tigers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 7-1 in Rebels last 8 games following a straight up win.
Under is 6-2 in Rebels last 8 games following a ATS win.
Under is 5-2 in Rebels last 7 vs. Southeastern.
Under is 5-2 in Rebels last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Over is 7-3 in Rebels last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 9-4 in Rebels last 13 overall.
Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 7-2 in Tigers last 9 overall.
Over is 7-2 in Tigers last 9 vs. Southeastern.
Under is 5-2 in Tigers last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Rebels are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
