Middle Tenn St (8-5) vs Appalachian St (10-2)
When: Saturday, December 15th 2018
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome,
New Orleans, Louisiana
Time: 9:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Appalachian State -7/50.5
The first day of the 2018 Bowl season ends with a good matchup between the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders and Appalachian State Mountaineers from the Superdome in New Orleans. The Mountaineers will be guided by their defensive line coach Mark Ivey, as head man Scott Satterfield has moved onto the coach the Louisville Cardinals program. Appalachian State will look for their fourth straight Bowl victory behind a terrific defense that is holding opponents to 15.7 points and 279.4 yards per contest this season, allowing more than 20 only in its two losses. The Mountaineers ended the season with five consecutive victories including a 30-19 Sun Belt Championship Game win over Louisiana. The defense will surely get a test from an explosive Middle Tennessee offense that is averaging 29.2 points and 391.1 yards per game, with senior quarterback – and the coach’s son – Brent Stockstill throwing for 3,214 yards and 28 touchdowns. Middle Tennessee dominated Conference USA opponents, going 7-1 during the regular season, but the Blue Raiders didn’t win the conference championship thanks to a bad penalty at the end of the contest against UAB. The Blue Raiders, who suffered three of their five losses on the road against SEC opponents, have scored over 20 points in all but two games (Vanderbilt, Georgia).
Stockstill spreads the ball around to a bevy of talented receivers including junior Ty Lee (67 catches, 828 yards, seven touchdowns) and senior Patrick Smith (54, 526, six). The running game is ranked 108th in the country, but should get better over the next few seasons, as they were led this year by redshirt freshman Chaton Mobley, who had 568 yards and four TDs. Junior Terelle West (288 yards) and senior Tavares Thomas (226) also contribute the rushing attack. Defensively, the Blue Raiders were very inconsistent this season and have given up 27 or more points in three of their last four games, two of those losses.
The Mountaineers have an offensive attack that is led by rushing the football behind Darrynton Evans (1,079 yards, seven TDs), while Zac Thomas (1,862 yards, 18 TDs) leads the passing attack, but is a threat to run the ball with 476 yards and 10 scores. The Appalachian State defense is the strength, however, and is led by junior linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither’s 95 tackles, including 8.5 for loss, and senior linebacker Anthony Flory’s 91. Junior linebacker Jordan Fehr led the Mountaineers with 5.5 sacks, while junior linebacker Noel Cook led the squad with 10 tackles for loss (3.5 sacks) among his 69 stops.
It will be interesting to see which Blue Raiders defense comes to this bowl game. We know the App State defense will be a force, but how will their offense run without the head coach. Teams don’t usually fair well in bowl games after losing their coach. I think Stockstill steps up big here in his final game and at least keeps it close.
Pick: Middle Tennessee State +7
Betting Trends:
- Blue Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
- Blue Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Blue Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Blue Raiders are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. S-Belt.
- Blue Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Blue Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Blue Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Blue Raiders are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games on fieldturf.
- Blue Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
- Blue Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
- Blue Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games.
- Blue Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
- Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
- Mountaineers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Mountaineers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
- Mountaineers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on fieldturf.
- Mountaineers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Mountaineers are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mountaineers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Raiders last 4 games in December.
- Under is 8-1-1 in Blue Raiders last 10 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Blue Raiders last 9 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Blue Raiders last 8 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Blue Raiders last 8 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Raiders last 6 Bowl games.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Raiders last 6 neutral site games.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Raiders last 6 bowl games.
- Over is 4-1 in Blue Raiders last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 12-5 in Blue Raiders last 17 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 12-5-1 in Blue Raiders last 18 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 5-1 in Mountaineers last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Mountaineers last 6 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 4-1 in Mountaineers last 5 games overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Mountaineers last 5 non-conference games.
- Under is 8-2 in Mountaineers last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-2 in Mountaineers last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Mountaineers last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 5-2 in Mountaineers last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
