Michigan (8-2, 5-2) at Wisconsin (10-0, 6-0)
When: Saturday, November 18th 2017
Where: Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI
Time: Noon ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Wisconsin -9.5/42
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The Wisconsin Badgers have already clinched the Big Ten West title, but are looking for bigger things as they look to keep their record perfect when they host the Michigan Wolverines on Saturday morning. The Badgers are 10-0 for the first time in program history and are coming off a 38-14 victory over Iowa to mark the fourth straight season in which they have recorded 10 or more wins. Wisconsin is currently fourth in the CFP rankings and controls its own destiny as seeks some revenge on a Michigan team that topped the Badgers 14-7 last year. Michigan has won three consecutive games after destroying Maryland 35-10 last Saturday. The Wolverines still have an outside shot of winning the Big Ten East crown, but need to win their final two games of the regular season (Wisconsin, Ohio State) and hope that No.11 Penn State and 24th-ranked Michigan State lose another game. Michigan hasn’t turned the ball over since Brandon Peters replaced a struggling John O’Korn under center in the first half of the 35-14 win against Rutgers. Michigan has not beaten the Badgers in Madison since November 17th, 2001.
Chris Evans, who rushed for 191 yards on just 13 carries against Minnesota in Week 10, ran for another 80 and two touchdowns in the win over Maryland on 15 carries. Peters threw for 145 yards and two touchdowns while running back Karan Higdon accounted for 98 total yards before sitting out the second half with an ankle injury, but is expected to play on Saturday. Star defensive end Rashan Gary (arm) and cornerbacks Lavert Hill (concussion) and David Long (leg) suffered injuries against the Terrapins but are likely to recover in time to face the Badgers while running back Ty Isaac (head) and offensive lineman Michael Onwenu (leg) are expected to return after missing the last two games. Michigan has held seven of its 10 opponents to 14 points or fewer and are ninth in the nation in points allowed per game (16.4).
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Linebacker Leon Jacobs was named the Big Ten Co-Defensive Player of the Week after recording four tackles, a sack and a defensive touchdown in the win over Iowa while Jonathan Taylor won the freshman honor following his 157-yard rushing effort on 29 carries. Taylor has been a workhorse all season for Wisconsin, rushing 219 times for 1,525 yards and 10 scores. Alex Hornibrook finished with 135 yards passing and two touchdowns but threw three interceptions to give him at least one in every conference game this season. Troy Fumagalli, who has caught 33 passes for 422 yards and three touchdowns this season, was named one of eight semifinalists for the John Mackey award, which is presented annually to the top tight end in college football. The Badgers lead the nation in total defense (247.6 yards per game) and against the run (81.5).
Yes, Wisconsin hasn’t played anyone this season, but they have been doing exactly what a championship-type team does – destroy the teams they’re supposed to beat. Michigan is getting healthier, but I don’t trust them on the road with a freshman quarterback against a Badgers defense that is just as good as Michigan’s. I’ll lay the points just like I did when Michigan played Penn State.
Pick: Wisconsin -7.5
TRENDS:
- Wolverines are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Wolverines are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Wolverines are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Wolverines are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Wolverines are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Wolverines are 1-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Wolverines are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
- Badgers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
- Badgers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Badgers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Badgers are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 conference games.
- Badgers are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
- Badgers are 2-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Badgers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Badgers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Over is 10-1 in Wolverines last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Wolverines last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 4-1 in Wolverines last 5 conference games.
- Over is 10-3 in Wolverines last 13 road games.
- Over is 14-5-1 in Wolverines last 20 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 22-8-1 in Wolverines last 31 games overall.
- Over is 8-3 in Wolverines last 11 games in November.
- Over is 18-7-1 in Wolverines last 26 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 5-2 in Wolverines last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Over is 5-2 in Wolverines last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 15-7-1 in Wolverines last 23 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 4-0 in Badgers last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Badgers last 5 games in November.
- Over is 7-1 in Badgers last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in Badgers last 7 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 9-2 in Badgers last 11 conference games.
- Over is 4-1 in Badgers last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 10-3 in Badgers last 13 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 6-2 in Badgers last 8 games overall.
- Over is 9-3 in Badgers last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Badgers last 7 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 5-2 in Badgers last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 7-3 in Badgers last 10 home games.
- Under is 18-8-1 in Badgers last 27 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
- Underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
- Wolverines are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
- Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Wisconsin.
